All of the major liquidity is now to the upside, and BTC, ETH, USDT.D and OTHERS all look like they are putting in the final touches before pushing hard.
This is the next and final phase of the cycle where BTC enters true parabolic expansion, likely to $150k - $200k....
Dominance drops, ETH takes over and altcoins have their moment.
I can't say how long it will take for BTC to enter price discovery, but the next big move is up. OTHERS is so close to blasting off.
Iran "We're going to attack you soon, just to let you know. It will be violent, just so you are aware... and it will be in two hours... so get ready" đ€Ł
It's a circus.
And the markets aren't being fooled.
SPX ripping harder than anything else right now.
The longer it goes on like this the more likely the next level at $96k BTC has been front run.
Best way to play it?
Add on the decent red candles towards key levels if you want to position.
If not, just chill.
Nothing substantial is going to come of this from here imo.
This is one of the most important tweets I will ever write.
And it is one of the most important lessons you need to understand as an investor if you want to make it.
Here it is...
- Any buy that is worth taking will ALWAYS be surrounded with fear. And the better the buy, the greater the fear.
This is because every single time prices drop there will always be FUD.
Always be people panicking because prices go down and portfolio goes down.
The masses begin to worry about losing money... bad headlines come out, or something unexpected happens.
Lots of people panic sell and you get big red candles that scares people even more.
And evert time this happens, you will be able to convince yourself that its different, because the majority will be agreeing with you and sharing their collective fear.
But this is not how it works.
You must get yourself to a place in your mind philosophically whereby you can process this paradigm.
You will never be able to escape it.
Every buy worth buying will be a difficult thing to take.
But instead of seeing that discomfort as a sign to not do it, you must see it as a sign to do it.
And the more discomfort you feel, the greater the opportunity.
I have had irl friends reach out to me today asking if everything is fucked...
And constant rude comments on my posts calling me a retard.
When the stats tell us we're in golden buy territory again.
Understand this lesson, embody it, and you will win.
It is supported in a fundamental way, as covered yesterday...
And also in a technical way.
This is a closer look at the $ETH log scale chart, that as you can see, is totally respecting the overall trend of the token.
I have overlayed the fractal from last cycle(fractals can only be used as guides), and it perfectly lines up to the target/top area of this 8 year ascending channel.
This is not a coincidence... It is the ultimate HTF picture.
If you feel the need to discredit this simply because you cannot fathom it, then know you are operating from a place of delusion, not me.
Your delusion stems from the emotions of the moment.
The notion that because something has not done something for a while, that it isn't possible.
If you feel this, the same thing will happen to you when the market is at the top...
And you wont be able to imagine that $ETH could have ever been in a deep bear market...
Which will cause you to make the wrong decisions then also.
I am not saying $ETH WILL go to $16k...
What I am saying is that it is not a delusional target, for every reason I have covered over the last two days.
Right now, we have the largest amount of institutional inflows into ETH we have seen.
Combined with $ETH whale wallets adding, this is most amount of buy pressure seen since 2017.
It's Massive.
So why is the price steady/down?
Because it is being HEAVILY shorted by large funds.
Right now, there are record shorts open on $ETH.
Why?
It is not because they think price will go down.
It is quite clear to me that $ETH is being purposefully and aggressively manipulated downwards to give all the big players time to load their bags as low as possible before...
- GENIUS act fully finalised - ETH Staking ETF approval
And just the overall bullish period of this market where $ETH is about to melt faces.
Once these guys are finished loading, the shorts will be closed and the rally will be immense.
TLDR:
$ETH is a massive beach ball being held underwater whilst having more air added to it every day.
I get asked allll the time about "wen dominance drop.... wen alt szn"
From my perspective, this is how I see BTC.D right now.
This is a pretty large range that begun in July 2017 and holding form still today.
At this stage in the cycle, I would not expect BTC.D to break thing range.
If we were at an earlier stage in the cycle, sure, we could still push past this range...
But BTC is about to undergo its final expansion phase of this cycle, and statistically speaking, this phase is where its dominance begins to decline, not push higher.
This is evident in the ETH/BTC chart and ETH.D chart that I have shared several times recently.
Both these charts have begun their respective reversals, and thus provide very strong confluence that paints a pretty clear picture for 65% being a highly probable top for BTC.D.
Another important thing I have highlighted here is just how fast Dominance drops once it does.
It can spend years building up... this cycle it has been consistently rising for almost 3 years.
Only to bottom out from peak to bottom in 4 months!
You can see on the chart approximately how this would look, albeit I have just laid over the fractal from 2021. This cycle will of course have its differences.
But regardless of how fast it gets there, I have a bottom target for BTC.D at 42%.
This also aligns with the Weekly FVG.
Structurally and statistically, this prediction holds strong weight and until proven otherwise, this range will play out like this imo.
TLDR:
It is very close. Any rise here in dominance will be short lived and not have too much of an effect on the wider market.