King of Trader35

Here's my read on the market:

The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions.

Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago.

The data is extremely abnormal:

Oil/Energy from $CVX , $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD.

Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD.

Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change.

For reference:

- $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone.

It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east.

The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard.

With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day.

But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month).

So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake.

Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns)

I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event.

Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets.

And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the
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Miseráveis!