#USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek (Short Summary in English)
U.S. inflation data drops this week: July CPI on Wednesday (Aug 12) and PPI on Thursday (Aug 13). Consensus expects headline CPI to ease to 3.4% annually (from 3.5% in June) , core CPI at 2.5% . PPI is forecast at +0.1% month-over-month . This data comes after July's surprise job loss (23,000) which weakened the Fed's case for further hikes . If inflation cools, it supports a September rate pause . However, oil price volatility remains a wildcard . Markets currently price ~44-49% chance of a September hike .
The CFTC used emergency powers to order prediction market Kalshi to stay open, overriding New York's lawsuit that accused it of illegal gambling. New York seeks $36 billion in penalties. The core issue: whether Kalshi is a federal financial market or a state-regulated gambling platform. The CFTC has also sued 9 other states trying to block Kalshi. This order lets Kalshi operate temporarily while courts decide who has jurisdiction. The outcome will set a key precedent for U.S. prediction markets.
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