Roki360

Calendar:
📁Monday: NY Mfg. Survey; $DLTR Earnings; $NVDA GTC Event
📁Tuesday: Pending Home Sales; $LULU $DOCU Earnings
📁Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, FOMC Dot-Plot, Powell; $MU Earnings🚨
📁Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Mfg. Survey, New Home Sales; $FDX Earnings🚨
📁Friday: $XPEV Earnings; Quadruple Witching Day
Economical news:
1️⃣WTI Crude Oil is trading at $100.64, up nearly 2% on the day, having surged over 40% since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz - which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply - has seen daily ship traffic collapse from a historical average of 138 vessels to a maximum of five, with no resolution in sight despite Trump's calls for a coalition of nations to reopen the waterway.
2️⃣President Trump publicly demanded that approximately seven countries - including China, Japan, France, and the UK - send naval forces to help police the Strait of Hormuz, warning NATO faces a 'very bad' future if allies don't comply. So far, no country has officially pledged warships, with Japan's Prime Minister confirming Monday there are no plans to deploy naval forces to the region.
3️⃣The U.S. Dollar Index remains perched near a 10-month high as geopolitical risk from the Middle East war drives a global flight to safety, while the Fed is now widely expected to hold rates steady at its Wednesday meeting. CME FedWatch data shows markets are barely pricing in a single 0.25% cut for all of 2026, with the 2-Year Treasury Yield at its highest level since August 2025.
4️⃣ EUR/USD is trading at $1.14, down from highs above $1.20 in late January, as risk-averse sentiment driven by the Iranian war and surging oil prices continues to weigh heavily on the euro. Analysts warn that a break below key chart support at $1.1392 could accelerate a retreat toward $1.1065, with near-term clarity described as 'lacking' heading into a week packed with central bank decisions.
5️⃣The S&P 500 ended last week at its lowest level since November, breaking below the key long-term support level at 6,737, as soaring oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty hammer investor confidence. Analysts see potential for the index to slide toward the 6,500 level, driven by a combination of an over-extended prior bull run and fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.🚨
6️⃣Bitcoin USD climbed to nearly $76,000, return of institutional investment flows. The rally stands out against the backdrop of broad risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, suggesting some investors may be rotating into crypto as an alternative store of value amid the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. 📈

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