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BITCOIN VS NASDAQ: A BULLISH SIGNAL MEETS THE BIGGEST WEEK OF EARNINGS SEASON
Yes, that's me on the cover - because behind the charts and the market breakdowns, there’s a real trader watching every candle. Now that we’ve cleared that up, let's talk about what matters: Bitcoin has slipped under $80,000 heading into Fed week and Big Tech earnings. Yet one chart watched by long-term analysts is flashing a signal that has historically preceded big moves: the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio. Is this a trap or the early stage of a recovery? Here is the full picture.
1️⃣ THE SIGNAL: BTC/NASDAQ RECLAIMS ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE
According to Bitcoin Magazine analyst Sean Hagan (as reported by Benzinga):
🔹 The Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq Composite ratio reclaimed its 200-day moving average on Sept. 18, after 235 consecutive trading sessions below it. It has held above that level despite the recent equity sell-off.
🔹 In five of six comparable signals since 2015, Bitcoin gained over the following year, with a median return of about 84%.
🔹 The ratio fell 62% through June 30. Earlier cycle drawdowns were 87% (2015), 83% (2019) and 69% (2022), so this one was shallower.
🔹 Bitcoin's 90-day beta to the Nasdaq is now 0.75, versus 1.43 before the failed 2021 signal. Lower beta suggests BTC is starting to move more independently of tech.
🔹 Since the Nasdaq's Oct. 6 record high, the index is down 5.8% while Bitcoin is down about 5%.
🔹 The analyst sees a possible move to $100,000 by year-end.
⚠️ THE INVALIDATION LEVEL: A close below the ratio's 200-day average, equal to roughly $76,000-$77,000 for Bitcoin, would cancel the bullish setup.
2️⃣ REALITY CHECK: WHERE BTC TRADES RIGHT NOW
The signal is encouraging, but price action is still shaky:
• BTC dipped under $80,000 on Monday, touching about $79,300, its lowest level since mid-September. It is down more than 3% on the week.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $773M in net outflows last week.
• Analysts want BTC to reclaim about $82,500 (the level lost last Thursday) before calling this dip a pause.
• Ether and XRP fell about 3% in the same session, a sign of broad de-risking.
📐 THE MATH: From about $80,000, $100,000 by year-end needs roughly a 25% gain in about nine weeks. The distance to the $76,000-$77,000 invalidation zone is only about 4-5%. Risk and reward are both large, so position sizing matters.
3️⃣ THIS WEEK'S CATALYSTS
Wed, Oct 28: Fed decision, then Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the close
Thu, Oct 29: Amazon earnings, plus Coinbase after the close (Confirm times on each company's investor relations page.)
THE FED
• CME FedWatch showed about a 90.6% chance of a hold at 3.75%-4% and about a 9.4% chance of a hike.
• The real question is the tone of Chair Warsh's press conference. Traders are watching for hints of a December hike.
• Brent crude is near $114, a six-month high, which keeps inflation worries alive.
BIG TECH
• Meta fell about 7% last Thursday after its free cash flow turned negative on heavy AI spending. That triggered a Nasdaq sell-off.
• Microsoft is guided to about 45% Azure growth. Amazon's AWS grew 37% last quarter. Alphabet's cloud and AI search commentary is in focus.
• The market now wants proof that AI spending produces returns, not just bigger budgets.
4️⃣ HOW EARNINGS COULD MOVE BITCOIN
🟢 SCENARIO A: Strong cloud numbers, calm Fed Tech rebounds, risk appetite improves, and BTC could reclaim $82,500. This would support the bullish ratio signal.
🟡 SCENARIO B: Mixed results, hawkish Fed tone Volatility rises and BTC chops around $76,000-$82,000 while traders wait for clarity.
🔴 SCENARIO C: Capex fears return, rate-hike worries build A broader risk-off move could push BTC toward the $76,000-$77,000 zone. A daily close below it would weaken the bullish case.
The key point is that Bitcoin's falling beta to tech is a hopeful sign, but it has not proven independence yet. Both stocks and BTC are reacting to the same macro forces: rates, oil and AI sentiment.
5️⃣ TRADER'S CHECKLIST
✅ Watch the $82,500 reclaim and the $76,000-$77,000 invalidation zone.
✅ Expect volatility around the Fed press conference and after-hours earnings.
✅ Historical signals show a tendency, not a guarantee. Sample sizes are small, and a failed breakout remains possible.
✅ Track spot ETF flows for confirmation.
✅ Use defined risk. Gaps can skip stop-loss levels.
✅ If you trade tokenized stocks around earnings, check each product's rights, trading hours and liquidity first.
🎯 MY TAKE
The relative-strength signal is a genuine positive and the history is encouraging. But with BTC below $80K, ETF outflows, a possible hawkish Fed and shaky tech sentiment, $100K by year-end is an upside scenario, not a base case. This week gives us the first real evidence either way.
💬 YOUR TURN: Will Bitcoin hold above the $76K-$77K zone this week? Bullish or bearish, and what's your year-end target?
Drop your view below 👇 and test your earnings calls in the Finance Earnings section of Binance Pick.
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
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