Crypto_LUX

Here's @Crypto_LUX breaking down the BTC chart through fundamentals, macroeconomics, and technical structure to conclude the next major move of Bitcoin...
Main Structure: Head & Shoulders
The chart is forming a classic bearish Head & Shoulders pattern.
• Left Shoulder: First rejection around 108K
• Head: New ATH push near 125K followed by heavy sell pressure
• Right Shoulder: Weak recovery into the 95K–100K zone that failed to make new highs
The neckline/support trendline was lost after BTC rejected from the right shoulder. Once that happened:
• Momentum shifted bearish
• Liquidity below started getting targeted aggressively
• BTC dropped toward the 65K zone
The move from 95K to 60K is basically the measured breakdown from the pattern. And if you guys remember, on the breakdown of 74,500$, my target was 62,000$.
Now let’s talk about the 92K–96K OB (Order Block).
The gray zone marked as “OB” is now the main supply/resistance area. If BTC retraces higher, sellers are likely sitting there. A reclaim above that zone would weaken the bearish structure and could shift the bias bullish.
84K–86K Psychological Resistance:
This pink zone flipped from support into resistance after the breakdown. Bulls need acceptance above this level to regain momentum. It’s also a crucial area because it aligns with the support of the broader channel structure.
Now the Fibonacci levels:
This is the exact reason I was watching the 82,700$–83,500$ zone as the premium sell area.
• 0.5 Fib around 79K
• 0.62 Fib around 84K
• 0.705 Fib around 88K
And we already witnessed the reaction from that area. I didn’t enter instantly because I wanted confirmation that the retracement was actually complete, especially with all the major news events happening at the same time.
Current Market Interpretation:
Right now this looks like a relief rally inside a larger bearish structure. BTC is trying to reclaim momentum but is still trading below major resistance.
For bullish confirmation:
• BTC must reclaim 86K+
• Then break the 95K supply zone
Otherwise:
• Lower high structure remains active
• Another leg down remains very possible
Now let’s move to the macro side.
Global financial cracks are starting to appear. Bond markets around the world are flashing warning signs we haven’t seen since 2008.
• UK 30Y gilt yields just hit the highest level since 1998
• Japan 30Y bond yields reached all-time highs
• US long-term yields are climbing back toward recession-era levels
This becomes dangerous when all 3 major economies are under pressure at the same time.
Japan is dealing with persistent inflation and a collapsing yen. Markets now expect the BOJ may eventually be forced into aggressive rate hikes. If that happens:
• Yen carry trades unwind
• Capital rotates out of US bonds
• US yields move even higher
• Global liquidity gets crushed
We already saw a preview in 2024 when the Nikkei dumped 12.4% in a single day. Now the setup looks even larger.
Meanwhile in the UK:
• Oil above $100 is fueling inflation fears
• Rate cut expectations flipped back into hike expectations
• Political uncertainty is pushing investors away from UK debt
The biggest concern?
Historically, whenever global bond markets start breaking together, recession risk follows shortly after.
This is no longer just a crypto issue — this is a global macro warning sign the market cannot ignore.
What’s my plan?
I’m looking for shorts from current levels, waiting for a daily retracement entry before execution.
Maximum push: above 84,000$ in case of any bullish news.
Final targets remain below 50,000$.
And once BTC loses 70,000$, a move below the 60,000$ lows could happen very quickly.
One perspective everyone ignores: miners.
What happens if BTC trades below mining costs?
Previously, data suggested the average breakeven cost was around 55K–65K. But if that was truly the average, why was the market already trading below 70K earlier?
In my view, the real breakeven zone is closer to 45,000$. And if we ever reach that level, the market won’t stay below miners’ breakeven for more than 24–48 hours. A quick wick below that zone is very possible before a major reaction.
Lemme know what's your catch on this one!