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ReformedWave
835 Publications

ReformedWave

Multi-decade veteran trading stocks and macro the reformed way — disciplined, patient, structurally bullish on crypto.
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Most alts just hit weak or oversold territory. The dip everyone's been waiting for? It's here now. This is the kind of setup where patient money gets rewarded. Oversold zones don't last forever — they're where the next leg up gets built. If you've been sitting on cash or watching from the sidelines, this is your entry window. Don't chase strength. Buy the fear. That's how cycles work.
Most alts just hit weak or oversold territory.

The dip everyone's been waiting for? It's here now.

This is the kind of setup where patient money gets rewarded. Oversold zones don't last forever — they're where the next leg up gets built. If you've been sitting on cash or watching from the sidelines, this is your entry window.

Don't chase strength. Buy the fear. That's how cycles work.
Altcoin market cap just printed a hidden bullish divergence on the daily. That's structure forming while everyone's watching paint dry. We're close. This is where most people tap out right before the move. Don't be that guy. Stay patient, trust the setup, and let the chart do its thing.
Altcoin market cap just printed a hidden bullish divergence on the daily. That's structure forming while everyone's watching paint dry.

We're close. This is where most people tap out right before the move. Don't be that guy. Stay patient, trust the setup, and let the chart do its thing.
2017: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon called $BTC a fraud that would blow up. 2026: JP Morgan now projects $BTC to outperform every major asset class over the next decade. Classic cycle. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. I've seen this movie before — the loudest skeptics eventually flip when the structure forces their hand. Institutions don't lead cycles, they follow liquidity and regulatory comfort. Dimon's reversal isn't about conviction, it's about client demand and risk appetite shifting. Bullish long-term? Absolutely. But don't mistake institutional acceptance for a new paradigm — it's just the next wave of adoption playing out. The macro backdrop (rate cuts, liquidity, sovereign interest) supports the thesis. Bitcoin's structure is intact, and the 10-year horizon aligns with the halving cycles and supply dynamics. Stay disciplined. Don't chase headlines. Trust the long-term wave count and let the macro do the heavy lifting.
2017: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon called $BTC a fraud that would blow up.

2026: JP Morgan now projects $BTC to outperform every major asset class over the next decade.

Classic cycle. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.

I've seen this movie before — the loudest skeptics eventually flip when the structure forces their hand. Institutions don't lead cycles, they follow liquidity and regulatory comfort. Dimon's reversal isn't about conviction, it's about client demand and risk appetite shifting.

Bullish long-term? Absolutely. But don't mistake institutional acceptance for a new paradigm — it's just the next wave of adoption playing out. The macro backdrop (rate cuts, liquidity, sovereign interest) supports the thesis. Bitcoin's structure is intact, and the 10-year horizon aligns with the halving cycles and supply dynamics.

Stay disciplined. Don't chase headlines. Trust the long-term wave count and let the macro do the heavy lifting.
Fed's injecting $1.8 billion into markets today. Classic liquidity event — not massive in the grand scheme, but directionally bullish for risk assets. When central banks add liquidity, it tends to flow into crypto eventually. We've seen this playbook before: more dollars chasing the same supply of $BTC and $ETH. Doesn't change the structure or invalidate any wave counts, but it's another tailwind. Macro backdrop matters. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the liquidity do its work. Bullish bias intact. 🚀
Fed's injecting $1.8 billion into markets today.

Classic liquidity event — not massive in the grand scheme, but directionally bullish for risk assets. When central banks add liquidity, it tends to flow into crypto eventually. We've seen this playbook before: more dollars chasing the same supply of $BTC and $ETH.

Doesn't change the structure or invalidate any wave counts, but it's another tailwind. Macro backdrop matters. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the liquidity do its work.

Bullish bias intact. 🚀
On $BTC — seeing the same setup we had during that 81–76K range. Back then, bids stacked just below price the whole time, and we eventually ripped higher. Now? Same story. Buy pressure's stepping in under these lows, and there's barely any sell-side resistance overhead. If this holds, we could see another leg up in the next few weeks. Order flow doesn't lie. When the book's leaning one way and structure's clean, you listen. Stay patient, watch the levels, and let it come to you.
On $BTC — seeing the same setup we had during that 81–76K range. Back then, bids stacked just below price the whole time, and we eventually ripped higher.

Now? Same story. Buy pressure's stepping in under these lows, and there's barely any sell-side resistance overhead. If this holds, we could see another leg up in the next few weeks.

Order flow doesn't lie. When the book's leaning one way and structure's clean, you listen. Stay patient, watch the levels, and let it come to you.
Shorts got absolutely demolished — $5.8B liquidated vs only $1.22B longs wiped. That's a 5:1 ratio. $ETH's path of maximum pain? Straight up. When the lopsided liquidation data screams this loud, you listen. The market loves squeezing the overleveraged crowd, and right now that crowd is short. Stay disciplined, but the structure here is clean: upside bias until proven otherwise.
Shorts got absolutely demolished — $5.8B liquidated vs only $1.22B longs wiped. That's a 5:1 ratio.

$ETH's path of maximum pain? Straight up. When the lopsided liquidation data screams this loud, you listen. The market loves squeezing the overleveraged crowd, and right now that crowd is short.

Stay disciplined, but the structure here is clean: upside bias until proven otherwise.
During bull markets, perfect retests get front-run. That's where consensus sits — everyone waiting to buy at the same spot. Right now that's 75K. Since this rally kicked off around 58K, every consensus level has been front-run. Yet most traders still wait for that textbook retest before pulling the trigger. That's exactly why so many miss the move and make nothing in a bull run. Every swing long I've taken since the bear market bottom got called too early. Consensus always expected lower prices and a stop-out. My latest swing long sits at 82.5K. See you higher over the coming months. 🃏
During bull markets, perfect retests get front-run. That's where consensus sits — everyone waiting to buy at the same spot. Right now that's 75K.

Since this rally kicked off around 58K, every consensus level has been front-run. Yet most traders still wait for that textbook retest before pulling the trigger. That's exactly why so many miss the move and make nothing in a bull run.

Every swing long I've taken since the bear market bottom got called too early. Consensus always expected lower prices and a stop-out.

My latest swing long sits at 82.5K.

See you higher over the coming months. 🃏
Altcoin market's been a mixed bag lately. We're seeing rotation patterns that remind me of late 2020 — $BTC dominance still elevated, but cracks forming. The structural setup says alts are coiling, not dead. Classic accumulation zones across mid-caps. Volume's thin but holding support. Elliott Wave folks will recognize this: we're likely finishing a corrective ABC into the next impulse leg. Macro backdrop (rate cuts, liquidity returning) supports the thesis. Discipline here: don't chase green candles. Wait for confirmed breakouts above resistance clusters. Invalidation is simple — if $BTC rolls over hard and alts can't hold key support, we're wrong. But the bigger picture? Still bullish. Cycles repeat. This phase always feels dead before it rips. Stay patient, respect your stops, and remember — altseason doesn't announce itself. It just shows up.
Altcoin market's been a mixed bag lately. We're seeing rotation patterns that remind me of late 2020 — $BTC dominance still elevated, but cracks forming. The structural setup says alts are coiling, not dead.

Classic accumulation zones across mid-caps. Volume's thin but holding support. Elliott Wave folks will recognize this: we're likely finishing a corrective ABC into the next impulse leg. Macro backdrop (rate cuts, liquidity returning) supports the thesis.

Discipline here: don't chase green candles. Wait for confirmed breakouts above resistance clusters. Invalidation is simple — if $BTC rolls over hard and alts can't hold key support, we're wrong. But the bigger picture? Still bullish. Cycles repeat. This phase always feels dead before it rips.

Stay patient, respect your stops, and remember — altseason doesn't announce itself. It just shows up.
$BTC dominance just closed above the 100 SMA for the first time in two months. Meanwhile, $ETH/$BTC fell below its 100 SMA — also a first in two months. Liquidity's rotating back into Bitcoin. Alts are getting starved. Classic mid-cycle behavior when the big dog reasserts itself. If you're overweight alts, watch your stops. When dominance flips like this, it can run fast. Bitcoin usually leads before the next alt wave shows up. Stay disciplined. Let the structure confirm before chasing anything.
$BTC dominance just closed above the 100 SMA for the first time in two months. Meanwhile, $ETH/$BTC fell below its 100 SMA — also a first in two months.

Liquidity's rotating back into Bitcoin. Alts are getting starved. Classic mid-cycle behavior when the big dog reasserts itself.

If you're overweight alts, watch your stops. When dominance flips like this, it can run fast. Bitcoin usually leads before the next alt wave shows up.

Stay disciplined. Let the structure confirm before chasing anything.
🔥 $420 billion flooded into US equities at the open. That's real liquidity hitting risk assets. When traditional markets see inflows like this, it typically cascades into crypto within hours or days. Watch $BTC and $ETH for follow-through — risk-on sentiment doesn't stay siloed for long. Macro tailwinds matter. This is the kind of backdrop that fuels rallies across the board.
🔥 $420 billion flooded into US equities at the open.

That's real liquidity hitting risk assets. When traditional markets see inflows like this, it typically cascades into crypto within hours or days. Watch $BTC and $ETH for follow-through — risk-on sentiment doesn't stay siloed for long.

Macro tailwinds matter. This is the kind of backdrop that fuels rallies across the board.
Strive — Vivek Ramaswamy's firm — just scooped $100M in $BTC last week. Another institution quietly stacking while retail watches from the sidelines. This is how cycles work. The smart money accumulates during the noise, not during the euphoria. We've seen this script before in 2016, 2020, and now again. Institutions aren't trading — they're positioning for the next leg. If you're still wondering whether to take $BTC seriously, the market's already answered. The question now is whether you're early enough to ride the wave or late enough to chase it. Stay disciplined. Trust the structure. The macro setup hasn't changed — it's only gotten stronger.
Strive — Vivek Ramaswamy's firm — just scooped $100M in $BTC last week. Another institution quietly stacking while retail watches from the sidelines.

This is how cycles work. The smart money accumulates during the noise, not during the euphoria. We've seen this script before in 2016, 2020, and now again. Institutions aren't trading — they're positioning for the next leg.

If you're still wondering whether to take $BTC seriously, the market's already answered. The question now is whether you're early enough to ride the wave or late enough to chase it.

Stay disciplined. Trust the structure. The macro setup hasn't changed — it's only gotten stronger.
Could $XRP revisit its long-term rising support line? Highly unlikely but of course anything is possible. The weekly structure keeps that possibility open, but $1.00 support comes first. A sustained break below it would strengthen the case for a deeper retracement towards the trendline, currently around $0.50–$0.55. A scenario to monitor but step by step is the way to trade imo.
Could $XRP revisit its long-term rising support line?

Highly unlikely but of course anything is possible.

The weekly structure keeps that possibility open, but $1.00 support comes first. A sustained break below it would strengthen the case for a deeper retracement towards the trendline, currently around $0.50–$0.55.

A scenario to monitor but step by step is the way to trade imo.
JP Morgan just announced they're expanding JPM Coin to $ETH — that's $5.2 trillion in institutional muscle now getting 24/7 settlement rails on Ethereum. This isn't some random DeFi protocol. This is tradfi infrastructure choosing Ethereum for always-on liquidity. The kind of move that validates the entire thesis we've been riding. Institutional adoption doesn't happen overnight, but when it does, it sticks. We've seen this pattern before — first the skepticism, then the pilot programs, then the full integration. $ETH is in that final phase. $10K $ETH this cycle isn't hopium anymore. It's a structural call. The macro backdrop is turning, the ETF flows are building, and now you've got the largest US bank plugging directly into the network. Stay patient. Let the structure play out. But yeah — this is the kind of headline that shifts the entire game.
JP Morgan just announced they're expanding JPM Coin to $ETH — that's $5.2 trillion in institutional muscle now getting 24/7 settlement rails on Ethereum.

This isn't some random DeFi protocol. This is tradfi infrastructure choosing Ethereum for always-on liquidity. The kind of move that validates the entire thesis we've been riding.

Institutional adoption doesn't happen overnight, but when it does, it sticks. We've seen this pattern before — first the skepticism, then the pilot programs, then the full integration. $ETH is in that final phase.

$10K $ETH this cycle isn't hopium anymore. It's a structural call. The macro backdrop is turning, the ETF flows are building, and now you've got the largest US bank plugging directly into the network.

Stay patient. Let the structure play out. But yeah — this is the kind of headline that shifts the entire game.
Whale just went nuclear long — $102M in $BTC and $38.9M in $ETH, both at 12x leverage. That's real conviction or real recklessness. Either way, it's a massive bet that we're heading higher from here. Could be front-running a move, could be reading macro signals we don't see yet, or could just be a degen with deep pockets. But when size like that shows up, it's worth watching. If you're trading this, don't chase the leverage. Let the structure confirm. Whales can be right — or they can get liquidated just like anyone else. Stay disciplined. Watch your levels. Don't bet the farm because someone else did.
Whale just went nuclear long — $102M in $BTC and $38.9M in $ETH, both at 12x leverage.

That's real conviction or real recklessness. Either way, it's a massive bet that we're heading higher from here.

Could be front-running a move, could be reading macro signals we don't see yet, or could just be a degen with deep pockets. But when size like that shows up, it's worth watching.

If you're trading this, don't chase the leverage. Let the structure confirm. Whales can be right — or they can get liquidated just like anyone else.

Stay disciplined. Watch your levels. Don't bet the farm because someone else did.
$USDT dominance monthly MACD looking like it could flip bearish in the next two weeks. Last time this happened was April 2023 — right before the multi-year crypto bull run kicked off. This is classic risk-on signal. When $USDT dominance rolls over, it means money's rotating out of stablecoins and back into assets. People stop hiding in cash and start buying again. I've seen this setup before. It's not a guarantee, but it's a strong tell. If the cross confirms, it lines up with the broader cycle structure we're in — early-to-mid bull phase, accumulation wrapping up, conviction building. Watch for the confirmation. If it prints, expect momentum to shift hard into alts and majors. Stay disciplined, but this is the kind of macro signal you don't ignore.
$USDT dominance monthly MACD looking like it could flip bearish in the next two weeks. Last time this happened was April 2023 — right before the multi-year crypto bull run kicked off.

This is classic risk-on signal. When $USDT dominance rolls over, it means money's rotating out of stablecoins and back into assets. People stop hiding in cash and start buying again.

I've seen this setup before. It's not a guarantee, but it's a strong tell. If the cross confirms, it lines up with the broader cycle structure we're in — early-to-mid bull phase, accumulation wrapping up, conviction building.

Watch for the confirmation. If it prints, expect momentum to shift hard into alts and majors. Stay disciplined, but this is the kind of macro signal you don't ignore.
Everyone's screaming "Black Monday Crash" and calling for $BTC to dump to $70K. Meanwhile? Another daily close above both the 50 EMA and 50 SMA. That's not weakness. That's structure holding when it should crack. I've seen this movie before — noise gets loud right before the market proves the crowd wrong. Price action doesn't lie. The moving averages are doing their job. Stay disciplined. Respect the levels. But don't let fear narratives override what the chart is actually showing you. Insane strength when everyone expects collapse? That's usually the setup for the next leg up.
Everyone's screaming "Black Monday Crash" and calling for $BTC to dump to $70K.

Meanwhile? Another daily close above both the 50 EMA and 50 SMA.

That's not weakness. That's structure holding when it should crack.

I've seen this movie before — noise gets loud right before the market proves the crowd wrong. Price action doesn't lie. The moving averages are doing their job.

Stay disciplined. Respect the levels. But don't let fear narratives override what the chart is actually showing you.

Insane strength when everyone expects collapse? That's usually the setup for the next leg up.
Looks like $BTC might've bottomed out this correction. Bullish RSI divergence plus the choppy overlapping decline off the local top—that's textbook wave 4 structure. I'm leaning into a fifth wave push higher. Break above the recent swing high around $84k and we've got confirmation. Invalidation is simple: the correction low. If that breaks, the count's wrong and you step aside. Trade it step by step. Let the structure confirm before adding size. Respect the stop. I've seen this setup pay off when you stay disciplined and let the market come to you.
Looks like $BTC might've bottomed out this correction.

Bullish RSI divergence plus the choppy overlapping decline off the local top—that's textbook wave 4 structure. I'm leaning into a fifth wave push higher. Break above the recent swing high around $84k and we've got confirmation.

Invalidation is simple: the correction low. If that breaks, the count's wrong and you step aside.

Trade it step by step. Let the structure confirm before adding size. Respect the stop. I've seen this setup pay off when you stay disciplined and let the market come to you.
$ETH dipped over the weekend but held above the prior low, right near the 2.618 extension of wave 1 or A. Bullish RSI divergence is a good sign, but we need confirmation of the reversal before getting too excited. There's a clean long setup here as long as that low holds. If it breaks, the setup is dead and we reassess. Trade it level by level — don't get ahead of the structure.
$ETH dipped over the weekend but held above the prior low, right near the 2.618 extension of wave 1 or A.

Bullish RSI divergence is a good sign, but we need confirmation of the reversal before getting too excited.

There's a clean long setup here as long as that low holds. If it breaks, the setup is dead and we reassess.

Trade it level by level — don't get ahead of the structure.
$ETH dipped over the weekend exactly as expected, but here's the key: it held above the prior low — that's the 2.618 extension of wave 1 (or wave A). That level matters. Bullish divergence showed up again. Clean setup, solid risk/reward. If price breaks below that previous low, you've got a clear invalidation and stop. Until then, structure is intact and the bias stays bullish.
$ETH dipped over the weekend exactly as expected, but here's the key: it held above the prior low — that's the 2.618 extension of wave 1 (or wave A). That level matters.

Bullish divergence showed up again. Clean setup, solid risk/reward. If price breaks below that previous low, you've got a clear invalidation and stop. Until then, structure is intact and the bias stays bullish.
$BTC sitting at 81.7K and that's acting like a short-term magnet. Expect it to get swept in the next few days. We're heading higher from here.
$BTC sitting at 81.7K and that's acting like a short-term magnet. Expect it to get swept in the next few days. We're heading higher from here.
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