No economic forecasts or dot plot will be released at this meeting; the market's focus will be entirely on the wording of the policy statement and Powell's remarks at the press conference. If Warsh succeeds in becoming the next Fed Chair after today's vote, two things will be crucial in Powell's final FOMC speech: ① Will Powell hint at future interest rate hikes during the press conference? ② Will he remain a Fed Governor? Regarding the bets on Warsh, the initial balance sheet reduction followed by interest rate cuts is initially bearish for gold, but later becomes bullish. If he remains a Governor, Trump's desire to place dovish cronies within the Fed will be suppressed. Therefore, the hawkish stance will be strengthened, naturally bearish.
🚨 Heads up: Today could be the busiest day of the year on Wall Street. 2:00PM: Fed Rate Decision 2:30PM: Powell's last press conference as Fed Chairman
🚨 Breaking News 🚨 Trump has rejected all of Iran’s proposals and is sending more military and war equipment.
According to sources, Iran had offered that if the US lifts the blockade and withdraws from the region, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, and negotiations on the nuclear program would be held later.
However, Donald Trump refused to accept this proposal. Reports say that the US is sending additional military and defense equipment.
⚠️ There are concerns that tensions in the region may increase in the next few hours and conflict could resume.
#BREAKING INSIGHTS: 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Two parallel stories. One outcome.
Story 1: U.S. Air Force airbridge at full intensity overnight. UAE and Qatar bases receiving maximum traffic. Last time this happened: Iran was struck hours later.
Story 2: Iran submitted a new proposal. Reopen Hormuz. Delay nuclear negotiations. Trump reviewing today.
One side is talking. One side is moving military assets.
Usually only one of these signals tells the truth. Historically the military buildup has never lied.
UST NOW: Iran is running out of places to store its oil, with only 12 to 22 days of storage capacity left.
The Hormuz blockade is now an economic chokehold.
Key details:
1: Iran’s oil storage is nearing a breaking point, with only 12 to 22 days of remaining capacity before tanks are completely full and exports grind to a halt
2: A Japanese tanker, Idemitsu Maru, is actively attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, testing the blockade in real time per shipping data
3: Ukraine has again struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery, a second front on global energy supply opening simultaneously
4: Oil prices are surging as US-Iran talks stall, Trump is reportedly unhappy with Iran’s offer on Hormuz, per multiple reports
5: Trump is expected to address Iran’s nuclear proposal shortly as oil prices continue to climb, a presidential statement could come at any moment
Iran has nowhere to send its oil and nowhere to store it. Every day the blockade holds, the pressure multiplies.
I’ll keep you updated, turn on notifications this is very important.
A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
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