GEMINI

Perpetual futures show a cautious market. Open interest is falling, meaning traders are reducing positions rather than adding new leverage. Funding rates near neutral suggest the move is not driven by excessive longs. This looks more like controlled risk management than panic selling. Lower leverage reduces downside risk but the lack of open interest growth also signals weak upside conviction.

There is still no indication of fresh buying interest, as the 30 day SMA of net flows for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum spot ETFs remains negative. This reflects ongoing outflows and a lack of conviction from larger investors.

Until inflows return and stabilize, the broader market is likely to stay cautious, with price movements driven more by short term traders than long term demand.

#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥

#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Fear 👀

#XRP open interest on #Binance peaked at $1.76B in July but then dropped sharply as the price fell from $3.55 to $1.83. After heavy liquidations, open interest slipped below $500M and has stayed low since the October 10 event. Overall, open interest is down nearly 60%, that means strong deleveraging. Historically, such phases help reset the market and have often been followed by a bullish recovery once interest returns.

CryptoQuant data shows that #Bitcoin has suffered about $4.5 billion in realized losses, the highest figure in the last three years. Heavy selling from investors locking in losses, a behavior often seen during intense fear phases. In previous cycles, moments like this have sometimes signaled that the market is nearing exhaustion.

#Bitcoin is trading at $87.3K after a sharp drop, placing price right at a critical on chain area. The spot price is now well below the STH cost basis at $96.5K, meaning most short-term holders are underwater, which often increases fear and reactive selling. At the same time, price is sitting just under the Active Investors Mean at $87.5K, a level that can decide short term direction.

Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Net Realized PnL has dropped to a level not seen since March 2022. This indicates widespread loss realization across the market, reflecting strong selling pressure and investor fear. In previous cycles, similar phases have often occurred near periods of market reset, when risk is high but long term opportunities begin to form.

As price pushed higher, ATM implied volatility continued to be sold, indicating that the move was being used as an opportunity to offload risk. Gamma sellers stepped in to harvest premium rather than position for further upside. This divergence between rising price and softening volatility points to controlled, mechanical buying instead of aggressive breakout demand. Historically, this type of volatility response does not align with moves that develop into sustained breakouts.

The Realized Loss by Age metric shows that recent holders are driving the bulk of realized losses, led by the 3-6 month group and followed closely by those holding for 6-12 months. These participants largely represent buyers who entered near recent highs and are now being forced to sell as price moves back toward their cost basis, particularly above the $110K region.

This pattern highlights stress among late stage buyers, where downside pressure is outweighing conviction. Rather than treating the move as a chance to rebuild positions, these holders are prioritizing risk reduction. Their exits add overhead supply near important recovery levels, increasing resistance and making sustained upside extensions more difficult in the near term.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin is showing early signs of bearish pressure after on chain profitability slipped into negative territory for the first time since 2023. This development indicates weakening investor confidence, as more coins are being held at a loss. Market analysts highlight the $80K-$84K zone as a crucial demand area for BTC. How price reacts around this level could define the next major move, either stabilizing the market or accelerating the downside.

Binance #Bitcoin Leverage Ratio has climbed to its highest point since November, highlighting a renewed appetite for high risk trading across the market. This rise in leverage places Bitcoin in a more fragile position, where even small price swings can trigger large liquidation cascades.

Both rallies and pullbacks carry higher risk under these conditions, as heavily leveraged positions are more likely to be forced out. With volatility increasing, traders should remain alert and prioritize disciplined risk control in the current market structure.

224,248.67 BTC was transferred in a single block, which is nearly $20B worth of #Bitcoin moved at once. Transactions of this size are extremely rare and clearly not retail driven. This kind of activity is usually linked to whale level players such as exchanges reorganizing cold wallets, institutional custody movements or large OTC settlements rather than immediate market selling.

The transfer itself is not the real signal, what matters is whether these funds stay idle or start moving toward exchanges, because that is where market sentiment can shift quickly. For now, it simply confirms that major players are active and positioning quietly.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Heavy volatility in the crypto market over the last 24 hours led to the liquidation of 117,154 traders, pushing total liquidations to $212.17 million. The largest single liquidation was a #BTCUSD position on Hyperliquid worth $3.56 million ❗️

Back in early 2023, the combined market cap of all #altcoins was larger than #bitcoin Since then, Bitcoin has steadily pulled ahead, pushing the gap to a high of nearly $1.1 trillion by July 2025. Even today, the difference remains strong at around $606 billion in Bitcoin’s favor.

This shift highlights where capital has been flowing. Rather than spreading risk across multiple coins, investors have leaned toward Bitcoin as the core holding. In periods where confidence is selective, money tends to move toward the asset with the strongest track record.