Rather than joining the widespread concern about artificial intelligence causing human extinction, @KevRGordon and I decided to focus our attention on how AI is actually changing the landscape of employment. You can find our complete analysis regarding the labor market at this link: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/inside-jobs-ais-labor-market-impact
During the week that concluded on 10/2/26, the majority of ETF categories experienced positive capital inflows. This influx of investment was primarily driven by government bonds and U.S. large caps, which took the lead. On the other end of the spectrum, cyclical sectors recorded the most significant outflows for that period.
During the week wrapping up on 10/2/26, most ETF categories enjoyed an influx of new capital. Government bonds and U.S. large caps emerged as the frontrunners for these positive inflows. In contrast, the heaviest outflows for the week were concentrated within the cyclical sectors.
During August, the import of industrial supplies, including petroleum, crude oil, chemicals, and metals, experienced a 17% jump from the preceding month. This growth translated to an increase of $9.1B, which ultimately helped drive the overall trade deficit up to $105.6B.
Economic expansion is anticipated to face a downward drag from net exports, according to the newest insights provided by the @AtlantaFed GDPNow model. Specifically, current estimates show that this component will deduct 2.69 percentage points from the calculation for the 3Q26 GDP.
Global food costs have experienced a noticeable climb recently. According to the Price Index tracked by the @FAO (Food & Agriculture Organization), overall rates in September reached their highest peak in nearly four years. This shift reflects a 5.8% increase compared to a year ago. Looking at the individual categories, there was an upward trend in the cost of cereals, vegetable oils, and sugars. At the same time, meat prices actually decreased, while dairy prices held perfectly stable.
Serving as a gauge for worldwide economic supply disruptions, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index from the @NewYorkFed climbed to 1.28 for the month of September. This marks an increase compared to the previous reading of 1.20, a number that had been adjusted higher from its original estimate of 1.06.
The relationship between the 10y yield and the S&P 500 continues to be strongly negative. In fact, we can see that this inverse connection becomes even more pronounced whenever yields experience a decline.
Reaching its 28th record close of the year, the S&P 500 ended today at a brand-new all-time high. This milestone marks the first time the index has achieved a record finish since August 13. As always, please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
During August, the trade deficit experienced a sharp expansion, reaching $105.6B. This figure came in noticeably higher than the estimated $102.1B and shows a substantial increase from the $92.8B recorded during the previous month. It is worth highlighting that this represents the largest deficit observed since Liberation Day. When looking at the specific trade categories, imports grew by 4.3%, while exports saw a smaller increase of 1.4%.
According to the latest figures shared by @adpresearch, private payrolls have successfully recorded their fifth consecutive week of growth. During the four-week period concluding on Sept 19, the private sector expanded by adding an average of 23,750 jobs.
Based on the newest CFO Survey, top corporate finance professionals have identified inflation and monetary policy as their primary concerns looking ahead to 3Q26.
The recent 3Q26 CFO Survey from @DukeU, @RichmondFed, and @AtlantaFed reveals a minor dip in the overall confidence of CFOs concerning both the broader U.S. economy and their own companies. Although larger enterprises reported a welcome boost in optimism, this upward shift was ultimately balanced out by a fading outlook among small and financially constrained firms.
Throughout September, the @ISM services sector continued to record a robust volume of new orders. At the same time, the backlog for these orders climbed to a four-year peak. This trend clearly highlights that while customer demand remains strong, supply chains are currently experiencing significant strain.
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