For-Exx Kripto

I have repeatedly written that I have been bearish on $FLOKI since the beginning of January, starting from the 5535 level, with the main target being 1603. Since then, it has fallen by 53% and found support at its lowest level of 2613. However, the chart shows that positive signals have started to appear in FLOKI. If it breaks above 4031, it could rise to the 6100 levels where it started to decline. Let's see if it reaches 4031 first, no rush...

$XRP has been stuck in the range I previously marked with a turquoise dashed line, between 1.28 and 1.52, for the past four months. These two levels work well for those shorting or longing, in both directions.

$BTC bounced above the support line I previously marked at 79150, and is currently trading sideways. The US CPI (inflation) data is due on Tuesday, and the markets may remain relatively flat until then, assuming there are no developments on the Iranian side.

$USTC keeps touching the trend support I drew in pink and bouncing upwards, it has worked so far. $LUNC also seems to have overcome its intraday weakness a bit, I pay more attention to its weekday movements because the volume decreased over the weekend.

The $LUNC coin has risen approximately 175% since April 24th and has also experienced a correction of about 30% from its peak, which is a healthy increase. As long as it stays above 8200, I predict it will erase the zero again and rise above 10000, but if 8200 is broken, the whole scenario will be ruined. It's normal for it to be trading sideways because it's the weekend. The chart still looks positive; there's no reason to think negatively.

Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data

Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM

Scenarios:
- 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table
- Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027
- Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off
- Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples

After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings.
#adppayrollssurge

I pointed out earlier today that there was a trend and resistance intersection at the 10,000 point for $LUNC ; it hit there, and sellers suppressed buyers. Pay attention to the orange line; LUNC keeps hitting its head and going down. It needs to get out from under that trend line pressure. Drops to the 8,200 level can be considered normal, but if it breaks that point, problems will begin. Right now, there's no problem because it's above that level.

$BTC is trading weakly today, but that doesn't mean much to me; I think its movement after tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data is more important. Yesterday, I added one last short position to bitcoin at the 82,000 level, and from now on I'm just watching; my target is clear.

Let me explain what the 10000 level means for $LUNC today. We are currently at the point of both a mini downtrend and the zero-wipe threshold. If it breaks above the orange downtrend and surpasses that point, it could test the 12,200 peak again. Let's see how strong the buyers are?

$LUNC extended its correction a bit, but I think it's on the verge of recovering. If it closes above 10,000 at the end of the day, this will be perceived as positive because even though the correction size is long, it indicates that buyers are coming in and signals a recovery. We are watching.

I wrote this morning that the first signs of weakness were appearing in $LUNC , it experienced some selling pressure, but it was the kind of selling we wanted, because coins that rise relentlessly also fall relentlessly. Selling pressure up to the support level between 10000 and 9693 should be considered normal; as long as it stays above that, there's no problem.

My $BTC short positions are still open. I added one more short at the 82,000 level to increase my cost basis. Now I'm watching from the sidelines until I reach my initial expectation of the 65,000 level, and then maybe 57,039?

$LUNC 's move has layers; reading it as a "burn rally" misses the picture. Price bottomed near 0.00004 on April 24 and pushed above 0.00009 by early May — roughly doubling, the cleanest momentum move in two years. "~200%" overstates the number but captures the feel; this is a squeeze, not a grind.

Three layers run at once. Supply: Binance's May 1 burn of 923M LUNC was the biggest in months, yet the market front-ran it and didn't sell the event. The 0.5% tax burns 100–300M daily; cumulative ~6–7% of supply. Marginal in a multi-trillion float, but in LUNC narrative moves faster than math.

Technical regime change: LUNC didn't print a new low in February, then broke 0.000045 — the cap on every rally since 2022 — and retested it as support. Character flipped from "sell every pump" to "bid every dip." RSI above 80 is stretched, but the first overbought print after a structural break usually marks consolidation, not exhaustion.

Coin-specific alpha: with BTC flat, LUNC is idiosyncratic, not altcoin beta. Cosmos SDK v0.53, IBC and the May 6 v4.0.1 vote turn "dead chain" into "live project." Open interest jumped from 5.7M to 37M+ — spot and derivatives deepened together.

The only level that matters is 0.0001. Daily closes above, with a retest of 0.00008–0.00009 as support, give "delete a zero" real ground. Failure makes a 30–40% pullback toward 0.00006 normal — doesn't end the trend, just shakes everyone in front of it.

Zero deletion itself means 0.0001 to 0.001 — roughly 10x from here. Burns alone won't do it; you'd need real supply shrinkage, $USTC re-peg getting concrete, and Cosmos usage. Pricing the narrative and completing it are different things; LUNC has rallied on the first many times without the second.

Watch close quality at 0.0001 and whether volume holds. Fading volume while price stalls is textbook distribution; sustained volume means a new band is tested. Sturdy doesn't mean it won't drop — only that pullbacks find buyers easier.

While not certain this time, signals for a sixth upward wave have started to appear in $LUNC since April 24th. Let's see if this pattern will work again. Some signs of weakness are starting to appear... A profit-taking would be good for a healthy upward trend, allowing it to target higher levels. I think the direction of the movement will become clearer during the US session.

Will $LUNC continue its upward movement after making the same move at the point I marked with an arrow for the 6th time? The algorithms are still working, and if it makes an upward move in this formation, it may also break the resistance level I set at 12900. Tomorrow will be an important day.

Note the similarity between the areas I've marked with a yellow arrow on $LUNC ; a new upward wave that could extend up to the 11,000 level may be coming.

$LUNC closed above the 10,000 level on the daily chart, giving positive signals for the future. As long as it stays above 8168, we can think positively; declines up to that point can be considered normal. I will record a video during the day and explain in more detail.

$LUNC has clearly diverged positively from its siblings USTC and $LUNA 2.0 with a parabolic rise. For LUNC, maintaining a sustained level above 10,000 today is important...

$USTC , drawing strength from $LUNC , seems to be targeting the 850 level. The 850 level is an important level for USTC, a make-or-break line...
If it surpasses that point, it can be expected to reach the 1050 level on the daily chart, but 850 is an important resistance point.

$LUNC has finally reached the decision point I've been pointing to as its main target for the past 10 days. If it closes above 10000 on a daily basis and holds above that level, we can discuss different positive scenarios. First, let's break above 10000.