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Trading Vi BULLS VS BEARS — 4670 AND 4710 DECIDE GOLD’S NEXT MOVE
XAUUSD, 240 $XAU
After the sharp decline triggered by previous CPI and PPI data, gold is now entering a clear compression phase ahead of tonight’s Retail Sales release. The market is slowing down and waiting for confirmation on whether USD strength can continue after the recent series of economic data.
The key point here is that although the short-term structure still remains inside a bearish channel on H4, gold has not broken down below the rising trendline support yet. This suggests sellers still control the broader structure, but buyers are attempting to defend the last recovery zone to avoid a deeper breakdown toward lower support areas.
From a macro perspective, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data. If Retail Sales stay strong, it would reinforce expectations that the FED may keep higher rates for longer, supporting USD further. In that scenario, gold could break below the lower trendline support, confirming bearish continuation toward the 462x–460x support + fibo areas.
On the other hand, if retail data weakens, gold may see another liquidity sweep back toward the upper 47xx demand zones before the market decides on the next larger directional move. However, at this stage, the current recovery is still viewed as a technical rebound inside a broader bearish structure rather than a sustainable bullish trend.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues compressing ahead of Retail Sales data. If USD remains supported by strong economic numbers, gold may break below the rising trendline and extend the decline toward lower support + fibo zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If economic data weakens and USD loses momentum, gold could rebound short term toward the 47xx demand area before the market reacts to the next major directional setup.
XAUUSD, 240 $XAU
After the sharp decline triggered by previous CPI and PPI data, gold is now entering a clear compression phase ahead of tonight’s Retail Sales release. The market is slowing down and waiting for confirmation on whether USD strength can continue after the recent series of economic data.
The key point here is that although the short-term structure still remains inside a bearish channel on H4, gold has not broken down below the rising trendline support yet. This suggests sellers still control the broader structure, but buyers are attempting to defend the last recovery zone to avoid a deeper breakdown toward lower support areas.
From a macro perspective, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data. If Retail Sales stay strong, it would reinforce expectations that the FED may keep higher rates for longer, supporting USD further. In that scenario, gold could break below the lower trendline support, confirming bearish continuation toward the 462x–460x support + fibo areas.
On the other hand, if retail data weakens, gold may see another liquidity sweep back toward the upper 47xx demand zones before the market decides on the next larger directional move. However, at this stage, the current recovery is still viewed as a technical rebound inside a broader bearish structure rather than a sustainable bullish trend.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues compressing ahead of Retail Sales data. If USD remains supported by strong economic numbers, gold may break below the rising trendline and extend the decline toward lower support + fibo zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If economic data weakens and USD loses momentum, gold could rebound short term toward the 47xx demand area before the market reacts to the next major directional setup.
Gold Market Insights : GOLD PM UPDATE
$XAU
Price swept liquidity above the highs and instantly showed weakness. Smart money doesn’t chase it waits for confirmation after manipulation.
If bearish momentum continues, 4680 may become the next destination.
$XAU
Price swept liquidity above the highs and instantly showed weakness. Smart money doesn’t chase it waits for confirmation after manipulation.
If bearish momentum continues, 4680 may become the next destination.
MORNING UPDATE $XAU $BTC
Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after a subdued lead from Wall Street, where sentiment was dampened by tech weakness, higher oil prices, and firmer-than-expected inflation. Geopolitical uncertainty persisted, with Iran reportedly demanding five confidence building conditions before agreeing to a second round of talks with the US.
US stocks were mixed Tuesday, with most indices in the red as markets weighed hot inflation and geopolitics; the Dow edged higher. Healthcare, staples, and energy outperformed, while tech and industrials lagged on semiconductor profit-taking, though chips bounced off lows. Trump called the ceasefire “very weak,” Iran reportedly targeted Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia was said to have struck Iran. Iran demands five conditions for talks, including war end, sanctions relief, compensation, and Hormuz sovereignty.
President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, along with several other CEOs of major US companies, is aboard Air Force One, and that he will ask Chinese President Xi to open up” China.
WTI futures settled $4.11/BBL higher yesterday closing just above $102 as the US-Iran tensions remained uncertain.
Gold rallied from $4,638/oz yesterday reaching highs of $4,727/oz before settling around the 4700 handle this morning as the market awaits Trumps China visit.
In FX, the DXY was flat, taking a breather after gaining on higher oil prices and a hot CPI report. Focus turns to PPI and the Trump Xi summit. EUR/USD was flat, trading sideways after recent dollar gains, despite hawkish ECB comments from Nagel—who said the ECB must act if inflation expectations de anchor, with June a key meeting, and that rate hikes are increasingly likely. GBP/USD was also flat, constrained by political headwinds as PM Starmer defies calls to step down, inviting a leadership challenge. USD/JPY traded marginally higher, holding above 157.00 on higher oil prices and US yields, with the yen failing to benefit from stronger current account, bank lending data, or market pricing for a BoJ June hike.
Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after a subdued lead from Wall Street, where sentiment was dampened by tech weakness, higher oil prices, and firmer-than-expected inflation. Geopolitical uncertainty persisted, with Iran reportedly demanding five confidence building conditions before agreeing to a second round of talks with the US.
US stocks were mixed Tuesday, with most indices in the red as markets weighed hot inflation and geopolitics; the Dow edged higher. Healthcare, staples, and energy outperformed, while tech and industrials lagged on semiconductor profit-taking, though chips bounced off lows. Trump called the ceasefire “very weak,” Iran reportedly targeted Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia was said to have struck Iran. Iran demands five conditions for talks, including war end, sanctions relief, compensation, and Hormuz sovereignty.
President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, along with several other CEOs of major US companies, is aboard Air Force One, and that he will ask Chinese President Xi to open up” China.
WTI futures settled $4.11/BBL higher yesterday closing just above $102 as the US-Iran tensions remained uncertain.
Gold rallied from $4,638/oz yesterday reaching highs of $4,727/oz before settling around the 4700 handle this morning as the market awaits Trumps China visit.
In FX, the DXY was flat, taking a breather after gaining on higher oil prices and a hot CPI report. Focus turns to PPI and the Trump Xi summit. EUR/USD was flat, trading sideways after recent dollar gains, despite hawkish ECB comments from Nagel—who said the ECB must act if inflation expectations de anchor, with June a key meeting, and that rate hikes are increasingly likely. GBP/USD was also flat, constrained by political headwinds as PM Starmer defies calls to step down, inviting a leadership challenge. USD/JPY traded marginally higher, holding above 157.00 on higher oil prices and US yields, with the yen failing to benefit from stronger current account, bank lending data, or market pricing for a BoJ June hike.
As u can see, the market is at a bullish order block, indicating a strong support area. From here, price could move upward toward the higher levels as buying pressure and bullish momentum build. This is a personal technical observation based on price action and market structure only, not financial advice.
$XAU $BTC
$XAU $BTC
$XAUUSD holding inside a key range
Resistance zones: 4825–4850 & 5150–5200
Support zones: 4480–4520 & 4380–4420
Price reaction around these levels will decide the next move
Breakout = bullish continuation
Rejection = possible pullback
Patience and risk management matter most.
Resistance zones: 4825–4850 & 5150–5200
Support zones: 4480–4520 & 4380–4420
Price reaction around these levels will decide the next move
Breakout = bullish continuation
Rejection = possible pullback
Patience and risk management matter most.
Not bad numbers but crypto needs momentum to break out this week. You have a very interesting perspective, can we fol...
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