$BTC is trading at highest point in the quarter/year with an increase in open interest. Lots of people want to short Bitcoin and that is fueling this rally upwards.
However my bias remains to look for shorts until the weekly structure changes. So Currently I am only looking to see if we can get below the Monday high to go towards the Weekly open and Monday low area around the $78k region (atleast)
This should be an ideal scenario which should happen once we fail volume or start liquidating longs.
Watch closely for this. I will trade this very cautiously.
Here’s my current plan based on Bitcoin’s daily timeframe 📉 BEARISH CASE:
1. Triple divergence on the daily chart 2. A touch of the upper boundary of the ascending channel 3. A retest of support 4. A lot of longs have piled up on the liquidation map
📈 BULLISH CASE:
1. Trendline breakout 2. A double bottom formation — with a target around $85k+ 3. On the daily liquidation map, we could still move down to $80,900
MY POSITION:
As I wrote before, I’m holding a global short position and averaging into it. At the moment, I don’t see any bullish signals. Yes, I was a bit early in building the short, but nothing serious has happened yet. The monthly candle did close bullish, and that’s why I revised how far #BTC could still run, but that doesn’t mean my stance on BTC has changed. My position is SHORT. What do you think about Bitcoin? TURN ON NOTIFS, FOLLOW & BOOKMARK! $BTC
So far, we’re retesting the breakout liquidity around $79.6K after pushing through $80K.
Highest-probability scenario is still continuation, unless this pivot is lost.
If it loses it, the breakout becomes an upthrust / failed expansion, which is a bearish technical setup and increases the likelihood of a move back down.
That would be the short trigger.
Until then, there’s no real reason to stand in front of the move before it trades into the higher macro supply area around $84K.
For now, the asymmetric trade setup is a long toward that region, with invalidation below the breakout point.