Futures CVD has continued to move lower while open interest has been building up.
This suggests that whenever BTC has pushed into the range highs, perps have stepped in, aggressively increasing the selling pressure.
However, none of these rejections were significant enough to push price back below $85k.
Instead, price always found support around this level and quickly pushed back up towards the highs.
With more shorts continuing to enter the market, they could quickly get squeezed if buyers keep absorbing this selling pressure, potentially fueling another move into the highs or even above them.
$85k therefore remains the line in the sand for me. As long as buyers manage to defend this area, a break above $87k becomes increasingly likely.
We have just had a very strong quarterly close. In my view, there is a 75% chance $BTC sees some form of rejection within this new quarter.
Personally, I have no interest in shorting below the 87.2K highs like many are doing. That is scraping for peanuts.
I prefer positioning for larger moves, and that is where I am most effective. As the quarter develops, I will be watching for deviations into this box to hedge some of my continuation longs.
Other than that, unless we sweep into the area, I am simply not interested in entering.
At the moment, price has reclaimed 2Y rVWAP & Two-Year PP 84.1K, and for confirmation we need to see current month close above it. Reclaiming and holding this confluence opens the way toward targets above at R1, R2–R3, where TL is also running
Previously, I presented a number of arguments that increased probability that bottom was in 50–60K area, where we had confluence of supports: long-term 7-year TL, VWAP from '22 uptrend, bullish monthly OB and UO signaling oversold conditions. Now I also want to add that MACD has held the 0 level and is turning up, while RSI has moved back above 50 and is approaching MA again.
The current liquidation map shows one of the most significant imbalances between long and short liquidations we’ve seen in a while.
There are roughly $13B in long liquidations sitting below price, compared to only around $4B in short liquidations above.
That creates an imbalance of more than 3:1.
From a liquidity perspective, another move lower would therefore make a lot of sense.
That way, BTC could clear out a massive amount of downside liquidity while allowing short liquidations to build back up before the next larger expansion to the upside begins.
not gonna lie, I'm not a huge fan of the rejections around 87k and the wicks we keep leaving up there
but the latest pullbacks can’t even reach the local ascending trendline - buyers are still in full control and not showing any sign of backing down, at least for now
still not seeing a single valid reason to look for shorts. trend is your friend, and across all timeframes it’s strictly up