Bluechip

🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨

After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.

What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.

Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.

Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community

This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves

Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available

Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days

The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.

The Alpha Board link

#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare

$BTC squiggles

Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.

Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.

This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.

Did $BTC form a bottom earlier than expected this time, or is there still room for further downside?

The Bubble Risk metric combines three components to assess the probability of excessive speculative conditions in Bitcoin:

30% Price to Realized Price Ratio
30% deviation from the Alpha Price
40% CVDD Ratio

Historically, the metric also shows two important long term structures: an upper trendline associated with higher risk zones and cycle extremes, and a lower trendline that has closely tracked major cycle bottom regions.
And it is precisely that lower trendline that has my attention right now.

In previous cycles, Bubble Risk approached this region during important bottom formation processes. So far, that has not happened in this cycle.

Does that mean Bitcoin necessarily has to fall again? No.

But in my opinion, it also means it is still too early to say with conviction that the bear market is over and that the final bottom is already behind us.

Bitcoin has always been a market full of false breakouts, squeezes, and moves capable of quickly changing investor perception. With the growth of the derivatives market after 2017, this dynamic has become even more complex.

Even so, many of the major structural patterns observed in onchain data continue to appear across cycles, although with different amplitudes and timing.

That is why I am not invalidating either scenario.

Maybe Bitcoin simply formed its bottom earlier in this cycle. Maybe some historical metrics will not reach the same extremes again. Or maybe the market still needs more time and volatility before the bottom is truly confirmed.

My view today is simple: we still need at least a few more weeks, perhaps around two months, to assess whether metrics like Bubble Risk have genuinely broken their historical patterns or whether we are simply still in the middle of the process.

No rush to be right.

Observe more. Analyze more. Let the data evolve and make decisions calmly.

The market rewards resilience far more than blind conviction.

$BTC is on track to post its largest weekly gain since March 2023.
INSANE RALLY IN CRYPTO STOCKS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS.
$MSTRB up 29%
$COINB up 29%
$MARA up 28%
$BMNR up 22%
#BitcoinBestWeekSinceMarch2023

$BTC still has not yet tagged 4H EMA 8

$BTC has surged +27% and $17,200 from $62,300 to $79,500 since Jim Cramer (the inverse indicator 😂) said he is selling all his BTC.

This is NOT good.

The US government’s emergency move is already fading.

On Aug 18, the 30Y Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2007.

High yields make borrowing more expensive for the government, businesses and homebuyers.

So, the Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to at least $4B to push yields lower from 5.28% to 5.18%.

But less than 48hrs later, the yield was back at 5.24%, erasing nearly 70% of the relief.

It’ll take more than $4B to calm this market.

Metals 📈📈📈
$XAG $XAUT $COPPER

🩸Another $3.6 BILLION wipeout is WAITING...

$3.6B in Bitcoin shorts could be liquidated if
$BTC breaks above $80k.

Over $2.4B has already been wiped out in the last 3 days.

Will we see more? or just another trap?

@CZ : “LET’S TOKENIZE EVERYTHING”
$BTC hit $79,500, up nearly 10% in 24h after the US Treasury doubled its long-term bond buybacks and Trump rallied crypto execs at the White House to push the CLARITY Act.

Notably, tokenized assets led trading volume growth even though traditional markets were quiet last week

The tokenized stock market has grown to $2.8B

Securitize-issued SECZ now leads the sector by market cap at $165.6M, ahead of STRCx at $141.8M and CRCLon at $112.5M

$ETH breaks $2,400 🔥

$BTC hits $79,000, making a new 14-week high.

It is now up $16,000 in just the last 4 days, liquidating $4.3 BILLION worth of short positions.

$412 BILLION has been added to its market cap over the same period.

$BTC reclaims $75,000 for the first time in 86 days.

Bitcoin has surged +17%, adding around $11,000 in just 2 days.

That’s over $220 BILLION added to Bitcoin’s market cap.

$3.6 BILLION in short positions have been liquidated in the last 72 hours.

$BTC surges above $74,000 and hits its highest level since May 27th.

Bitcoin is now up +20% in 4 days.

When market makers decide to engineer a quick pump, the news and catalysts need to be ready.

The current move in crypto didn’t come out of nowhere 👇

It started in the U.S. bond market, with renewed Treasury support for bonds and falling yields. This gave a boost to risk assets, including $BTC .

And today, another positive catalyst emerged:

The White House is pushing to advance the CLARITY Act following a meeting with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, Nasdaq, and ICE, with growing optimism that the legislation could start moving again in September.
If passed, the bill would provide the crypto market with a clearer regulatory framework in the United States, particularly for altcoins and U.S.-based crypto projects.

🟢 Of course, the news is positive, but here's the important part 👇
The bill has not been passed yet, and the first vote is expected on September 15.

So don't chase the current move too aggressively or fall into FOMO.
Over just a few days, the market has received a combination of improving liquidity, falling yields, and positive regulatory news the perfect environment for a quick pump.

⚠️ But if real liquidity doesn't continue flowing in to confirm the move, there's nothing stopping what we're seeing right now from turning into a bull trap before a sharp reversal.

Enjoy the rally, of course, but don't trust it until the market proves it's real.

$BTC is already starting to approach a hot on-chain zone.

The area just above $72,600 is a region where the market tends to become overheated, but it can also act as a resistance zone for bears who are paying attention.

For now, waiting looks like the best strategy. In previous bear markets, similar regions often became areas of traps and false signals.

Even if Bitcoin pushes above $75K, that does not invalidate the importance of this zone.

For now, it remains an area where observation is more important than action.

The market doesn’t just test your strategy. It tests your behavior.

When prices fall, many people isolate themselves, become frustrated, and lose confidence.

When prices rise, that same person can become euphoric, act impulsively, and start believing that everything has changed overnight.

And this becomes very clear in the comments, especially when financial exposure is involved.

That’s why I’m already prepared for a wave of criticism over the next few months. I’m sure it will become part of our daily routine.

Anyone working with data, analysis, and markets needs to understand one thing: you will never please everyone, especially when your view goes against someone’s position or expectations.

Frustration doesn’t help.

What helps is maturity, tolerance, resilience, and the conviction to keep following the data, even when the market’s emotions are screaming the opposite.
$BTC

Want to understand markets better? Study this post right here.

Stop looking only at how far price moved. Start watching how hard the market had to work to get there.

At the June 6 low, one thing I pointed out was that $BTC ’s trip from $82K back toward $60K took substantially longer than February’s liquidation into the same area. The destination looked unbelievably ugly, but the way price got there was different, and that mattered.

Now we’re getting the other side of that test.

Starting around March 30, Bitcoin needed more than a week of grinding to work its way from the spring area back to 72k... This time it has done most of that work in just a couple of days.

So far, so good. But the bigger tell comes next.

Last time, getting from that spring area all the way back to $82K took roughly five weeks. If Bitcoin can work through the same supply and do it materially faster this time, while keeping the reactions shallow and holding the ground it gains, that tells us something important...

There may simply be a lot less supply left to work through.

That’s effort vs. result in real time.

Don’t just ask where price went. Ask how much work it took to get there.

$BTC setup looking interesting:

✅ STH realized price - reclaimed
✅ ETF buyer realized price - reclaimed
✅ ETF flows - turned positive (small size)
✅ Spot CVD - supported the move

❌ CB Premium - still negative, no US demand

When all of these flip green together, bears are cooked.

$BTC nice to see healthy pump with demand on Spot as well. It looks good for bulls and terrible for bears.