AriDavidPaul
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My market take from 30,000 feet. The general trend is towards a late stage capitalism blow off top over next 3-8 years. That means fiat depreciation, most risk assets rallying; gold, silver, and particularly bitcoin doing well. BUT, we’re currently in a countertrend move that could last a year. Lots of forces supporting a strong USD locally - the stablecoin bill may generate a trillion dollars of marginal USD and t-bill demand. The growing fiscal deficits are strongly bullish USD (until people lose confidence in US debt eventually.)
Geopolitically, we may be in for a lull in conflict that increases risk appetite with Russia and Iran both much weaker than many anticipated. The really scary geopolitical conflict comes when China invades Taiwan, might have a few years before then.)
Bitcoin’s high time frame idiosyncratic strength suggests to me that it may perform reasonably well even amidst a general countertrend move (and then when geopolitical tailwinds are back in its favor, it’ll go parabolic.) I’ll be adding exposure on any major pullbacks (I’m already long, a pullback to $92k area would be healthy.)
Lots of rooms for good news in equities with AI agents producing massive productivity gains that translate to corporate revenues in non-AI companies soon. Similarly, the pace of medical advances tied to AI research is starting to go parabolic, life expectancies sharply rising.
Biggest risk to a portfolio of alternative assets is increasingly non-market. Social engineering attacks, nationalization of property, sharply changing local laws that may devalue real estate on a dime, and confiscatory tax regimes are all rising risks in many places and for many assets.
Geopolitically, we may be in for a lull in conflict that increases risk appetite with Russia and Iran both much weaker than many anticipated. The really scary geopolitical conflict comes when China invades Taiwan, might have a few years before then.)
Bitcoin’s high time frame idiosyncratic strength suggests to me that it may perform reasonably well even amidst a general countertrend move (and then when geopolitical tailwinds are back in its favor, it’ll go parabolic.) I’ll be adding exposure on any major pullbacks (I’m already long, a pullback to $92k area would be healthy.)
Lots of rooms for good news in equities with AI agents producing massive productivity gains that translate to corporate revenues in non-AI companies soon. Similarly, the pace of medical advances tied to AI research is starting to go parabolic, life expectancies sharply rising.
Biggest risk to a portfolio of alternative assets is increasingly non-market. Social engineering attacks, nationalization of property, sharply changing local laws that may devalue real estate on a dime, and confiscatory tax regimes are all rising risks in many places and for many assets.
Just got open water certified. Didn't realize there was half-way decent diving here in Miami. Saw sharks and eels and pufferfish 20 minutes off the beach. Surprisingly, they all had zero interest in hearing my bitcoin prognostications.
Remediation in the billions once the additional cybersecurity coverups come out. https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/coinbase-global-says-customer-data-stolen-held-for-ransom-e5108336?st=gsdWtj&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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