AriaNaka
Founder of BlockWeb3 | Elite KOL at CoinMarketCap and Binance | On-Chain Research and Market Insights
37 Suivis
2.6K+ Abonnés
15.8K+ J’aime
471 Partagé(s)
Publications
Tous
Citations
Vidéos
PINNED
Join the group to trade the positions we are currently running with us.
All signals are shared in the group first before being posted anywhere else. Some exclusive trades are only available in the group, including certain Alpha coins that won’t be posted elsewhere.
Join the group, connect with me there, and feel free to message me directly.
Let’s grow together. 🚀
All signals are shared in the group first before being posted anywhere else. Some exclusive trades are only available in the group, including certain Alpha coins that won’t be posted elsewhere.
Join the group, connect with me there, and feel free to message me directly.
Let’s grow together. 🚀
$BTC Spot Order Book Outliers
OBs below are starting to intensify. Specifically in the following ranges...
Upside: 83, 84k
Downside 80k
Remember, OB's are targeted by MM's, they often times act as magnets.🧲
OBs below are starting to intensify. Specifically in the following ranges...
Upside: 83, 84k
Downside 80k
Remember, OB's are targeted by MM's, they often times act as magnets.🧲
Bitcoin Les't go
Binance Vietnam
·
--
ĐOÁN GIÁ BIT - TRÚNG SWAG XỊN
Nhân dịp "cụ Bit" có những động thái giá thú vị, anh em Binance Square có muốn tài phán đoán thị trường? 📈
Binance tung Minigame Đoán Giá Bitcoin với giải thưởng là các phần SWAG (vật phẩm Binance) đang cực hot mà ai cũng muốn sở hữu. Luật chơi siêu đơn giản – chỉ cần 1 comment là có cơ hội trúng!
🎁 GIẢI THƯỞNG
🥇 Top 1 – Đoán sát giá nhất: Hộp Fullbox Set kỷ niệm 8 năm
🥈 Top 2-3 – Nhận Set Túi tote + bucket + bình nước
🎉 5 Giải May Mắn – Nhận Set Nón cap + sticker + notebook + vớ
📝 CÁCH THAM GIA (3 BƯỚC)
1️⃣ Follow @binance_vietnam trên Binance Square
2️⃣ Like + Share bài post này
3️⃣ Comment dự đoán giá BTC lúc 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN) theo đúng format: [Giá dự đoán USD] #GiaBitHomNay
📌 Ví dụ: 67,850 #GiaBitHomNay
⏰ MỐC QUAN TRỌNG
🟢 Mở cổng dự đoán: NGAY BÂY GIỜ
🔴 Đóng cổng: 20:00 ngày 10 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
🎯 Mốc chốt giá Bitcoin: 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
⚠️ Comment sau giờ đóng cổng KHÔNG được tính.
📊 NGUỒN GIÁ THAM CHIẾU
Để đảm bảo minh bạch 100%, giá BTC sẽ được đối chiếu theo:
🔹 Cặp: BTC/USDT🔹 Sàn: Binance Spot🔹 Loại giá: Giá đóng nến 1 phút (1m close)🔹 Thời điểm chốt: 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
📸 BTC sẽ chụp màn hình công khai tại mốc đóng cổng và mốc chốt giá, post kèm bài công bố winner.
🏆 CÁCH CHỌN NGƯỜI CHIẾN THẮNG
Công thức: Sai số = |Giá đoán − Giá chốt|
→ Ai có sai số nhỏ nhất → thắng.
🔀 Cơ chế tính thưởng khi trùng dự đoán:
Ai comment TRƯỚC (theo mốc thời gian comment) sẽ thắngNếu vẫn hòa → comment có nhiều like hơnNếu vẫn hòa → BTC random công khai
🎲 5 giải may mắn: Chọn ngẫu nhiên bằng công cụ quay số công khai, không phụ thuộc vào độ chính xác của dự đoán.
⛔ LUẬT LOẠI – ĐỌC KỸ!
Comment bị loại nếu:
❌ Thiếu hashtag #GiaBitHomNay ❌ Sai format (ghi "khoảng 67k" thay vì số cụ thể)❌ Đã edit comment sau khi đăng❌ Comment nhiều hơn 1 lần (cả 2 đều bị loại)❌ Comment sau 20:00 ngày 10 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)❌ Không follow/like/share theo yêu cầu
📬 NHẬN GIẢI
Người chiến thắng sẽ được tag trực tiếp trên post công bốNgười chiến thắng sẽ điền form nhận giải được đính kèm thông báo để cung cấp thông tin nhận thưởng!Nếu quá hạn điền form và cung cấp thông tin, người chiến thắng sẽ mất quyền nhận giải
Binance tung Minigame Đoán Giá Bitcoin với giải thưởng là các phần SWAG (vật phẩm Binance) đang cực hot mà ai cũng muốn sở hữu. Luật chơi siêu đơn giản – chỉ cần 1 comment là có cơ hội trúng!
🎁 GIẢI THƯỞNG
🥇 Top 1 – Đoán sát giá nhất: Hộp Fullbox Set kỷ niệm 8 năm
🥈 Top 2-3 – Nhận Set Túi tote + bucket + bình nước
🎉 5 Giải May Mắn – Nhận Set Nón cap + sticker + notebook + vớ
📝 CÁCH THAM GIA (3 BƯỚC)
1️⃣ Follow @binance_vietnam trên Binance Square
2️⃣ Like + Share bài post này
3️⃣ Comment dự đoán giá BTC lúc 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN) theo đúng format: [Giá dự đoán USD] #GiaBitHomNay
📌 Ví dụ: 67,850 #GiaBitHomNay
⏰ MỐC QUAN TRỌNG
🟢 Mở cổng dự đoán: NGAY BÂY GIỜ
🔴 Đóng cổng: 20:00 ngày 10 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
🎯 Mốc chốt giá Bitcoin: 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
⚠️ Comment sau giờ đóng cổng KHÔNG được tính.
📊 NGUỒN GIÁ THAM CHIẾU
Để đảm bảo minh bạch 100%, giá BTC sẽ được đối chiếu theo:
🔹 Cặp: BTC/USDT🔹 Sàn: Binance Spot🔹 Loại giá: Giá đóng nến 1 phút (1m close)🔹 Thời điểm chốt: 10:00 ngày 12 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)
📸 BTC sẽ chụp màn hình công khai tại mốc đóng cổng và mốc chốt giá, post kèm bài công bố winner.
🏆 CÁCH CHỌN NGƯỜI CHIẾN THẮNG
Công thức: Sai số = |Giá đoán − Giá chốt|
→ Ai có sai số nhỏ nhất → thắng.
🔀 Cơ chế tính thưởng khi trùng dự đoán:
Ai comment TRƯỚC (theo mốc thời gian comment) sẽ thắngNếu vẫn hòa → comment có nhiều like hơnNếu vẫn hòa → BTC random công khai
🎲 5 giải may mắn: Chọn ngẫu nhiên bằng công cụ quay số công khai, không phụ thuộc vào độ chính xác của dự đoán.
⛔ LUẬT LOẠI – ĐỌC KỸ!
Comment bị loại nếu:
❌ Thiếu hashtag #GiaBitHomNay ❌ Sai format (ghi "khoảng 67k" thay vì số cụ thể)❌ Đã edit comment sau khi đăng❌ Comment nhiều hơn 1 lần (cả 2 đều bị loại)❌ Comment sau 20:00 ngày 10 tháng Năm 2026 (Giờ VN)❌ Không follow/like/share theo yêu cầu
📬 NHẬN GIẢI
Người chiến thắng sẽ được tag trực tiếp trên post công bốNgười chiến thắng sẽ điền form nhận giải được đính kèm thông báo để cung cấp thông tin nhận thưởng!Nếu quá hạn điền form và cung cấp thông tin, người chiến thắng sẽ mất quyền nhận giải
$BTC is collecting the late longs now, and this phase that we are in is the parabolic euphoria.
Lots of Liquidation gathering up. This is a perfect example of a bearish rally that gets crazier as it happens.
I am more on the skeptic side of this pump, not believing it although It has fuel to wick out shorts.
That's what I think for now. SpoNegative funding is the thing that is the only wrong thing before a dump. It is distributing and we have lots of signs for it.
Lots of Liquidation gathering up. This is a perfect example of a bearish rally that gets crazier as it happens.
I am more on the skeptic side of this pump, not believing it although It has fuel to wick out shorts.
That's what I think for now. SpoNegative funding is the thing that is the only wrong thing before a dump. It is distributing and we have lots of signs for it.
🚨 $BTC Is Not Leading This Cycle… It Is Following a Script
The structure across BTC, SPX, GOOGL, and NVDA reveals a striking synchronicity where Bitcoin is no longer the pioneer but the lagging mirror of traditional risk assets. Historical range breakouts and reclaim patterns show equities consistently front running BTC by 170 to 500 days, suggesting a liquidity driven cascade rather than crypto native momentum.
The current #BTC deviation below range high mirrors prior corrective phases seen in equities after distribution tops, with the rejection zone aligning precisely with prior breakout structure. This is not random volatility but a textbook post breakout retest failure, indicating absorption at higher levels and a likely continuation toward range lows if support fails to hold.
What makes this setup explosive is the timing compression. Previous cycles allowed gradual transitions, but this structure shows accelerated feedback between macro liquidity and crypto flows. If BTC continues respecting this lagging behavior, the market is not searching for a bottom yet, it is replaying a delayed reaction to risk off conditions already priced in elsewhere.
Smart money is not reacting to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is reacting to smart money.
The structure across BTC, SPX, GOOGL, and NVDA reveals a striking synchronicity where Bitcoin is no longer the pioneer but the lagging mirror of traditional risk assets. Historical range breakouts and reclaim patterns show equities consistently front running BTC by 170 to 500 days, suggesting a liquidity driven cascade rather than crypto native momentum.
The current #BTC deviation below range high mirrors prior corrective phases seen in equities after distribution tops, with the rejection zone aligning precisely with prior breakout structure. This is not random volatility but a textbook post breakout retest failure, indicating absorption at higher levels and a likely continuation toward range lows if support fails to hold.
What makes this setup explosive is the timing compression. Previous cycles allowed gradual transitions, but this structure shows accelerated feedback between macro liquidity and crypto flows. If BTC continues respecting this lagging behavior, the market is not searching for a bottom yet, it is replaying a delayed reaction to risk off conditions already priced in elsewhere.
Smart money is not reacting to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is reacting to smart money.
$BTC We just took out a large cluster of short liquidations.
There’s still some liquidity left up to 84k, but it’s not comparable to the massive amount of long liquidations sitting below.
This doesn’t mean we have to reverse immediately, but the more liquidity builds up below, the higher the probability that price will move down to collect it.
A sweep of at least 82k still looks very likely.
There’s still some liquidity left up to 84k, but it’s not comparable to the massive amount of long liquidations sitting below.
This doesn’t mean we have to reverse immediately, but the more liquidity builds up below, the higher the probability that price will move down to collect it.
A sweep of at least 82k still looks very likely.
$BTC We have now broken above the top of the FVG near the $80k area.
To confirm the bullish continuation, I will watch for a complete candle close above this level on the daily timeframe.
If this happens, price could advance rapidly toward filling the CME gap around $84k since support is very thin in that zone.
I see no reason for price to break through the major FVG located at $84k, but should we reach that area, I will look for bearish confirmation prior to entering any short positions.
To confirm the bullish continuation, I will watch for a complete candle close above this level on the daily timeframe.
If this happens, price could advance rapidly toward filling the CME gap around $84k since support is very thin in that zone.
I see no reason for price to break through the major FVG located at $84k, but should we reach that area, I will look for bearish confirmation prior to entering any short positions.
$BTC is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+.
The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low.
The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000.
The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.
The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low.
The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000.
The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.
Well, that is interesting.
If $BTC reaches 85K, it would break above the 0.618.
Something we rarely see in a strong downtrends.
We’re at a critical point in terms of trend and a move above 85K would stop my swing short out.
I wouldn’t look to short again until there’s a clear shift back.
If $BTC reaches 85K, it would break above the 0.618.
Something we rarely see in a strong downtrends.
We’re at a critical point in terms of trend and a move above 85K would stop my swing short out.
I wouldn’t look to short again until there’s a clear shift back.
$BTC My additional entries have been filled at 79500, completing my final DCAs.
In the process, my average from 76K is currently 77.6K.
I won’t be adding further, and my SSL remains unchanged.
It either closes above 84K and invalidates my position, or it reaches my TP. There will be no adjustments.
In the process, my average from 76K is currently 77.6K.
I won’t be adding further, and my SSL remains unchanged.
It either closes above 84K and invalidates my position, or it reaches my TP. There will be no adjustments.
$BTC Every bear market has shown the same monthly pivot structure. Depending on how price positions into them, it helps determine whether they form a high or a low.
February has consistently marked a low in each bear market.
Late March / Early April has printed either a lower low or lower high in most cases, with 2022 being the exception, marking a high.
That brings us to the May pivot. Price is currently pushing higher into May, and the last time we saw this setup, back in 2018, May marked a local high, followed by a reversal into late June, which then formed a local low.
February has consistently marked a low in each bear market.
Late March / Early April has printed either a lower low or lower high in most cases, with 2022 being the exception, marking a high.
That brings us to the May pivot. Price is currently pushing higher into May, and the last time we saw this setup, back in 2018, May marked a local high, followed by a reversal into late June, which then formed a local low.
$BTC Six consecutive days of spot accumulation since the 74.8k flush.
OI stabilized after yesterday's dip, longs stopped exiting. Perps holding positive.
Third day of compression in 78.3k–78.7k range, Market is coiled up.
80k is right there, we just need OI and Spot strength to continue on the next breakout.
Though if we broke below this range, we are gonna test the 76.5k-77k level again.
Expecting the break to start on the Weekly open and sweep the highs in the next 2-3 days.
The final sweep is getting closer day by day.
OI stabilized after yesterday's dip, longs stopped exiting. Perps holding positive.
Third day of compression in 78.3k–78.7k range, Market is coiled up.
80k is right there, we just need OI and Spot strength to continue on the next breakout.
Though if we broke below this range, we are gonna test the 76.5k-77k level again.
Expecting the break to start on the Weekly open and sweep the highs in the next 2-3 days.
The final sweep is getting closer day by day.
$BTC The behavior of market participants hasn’t changed.
This leg up was fueled again by spot buying, while perps shorted into it and ended up getting liquidated.
Every move up over the past month has looked exactly like this.
Until this dynamic changes, another leg up is on the table.
Now, spot volume has dried up again, and open interest is declining while funding has reset from negative to neutral meaning, shorts are being closed again.
What’s interesting, though, is that while funding saw a reset, open interest remains elevated, indicating that leveraged longs have also entered.
If spot volume remains low, it might be their turn to get liquidated.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
This leg up was fueled again by spot buying, while perps shorted into it and ended up getting liquidated.
Every move up over the past month has looked exactly like this.
Until this dynamic changes, another leg up is on the table.
Now, spot volume has dried up again, and open interest is declining while funding has reset from negative to neutral meaning, shorts are being closed again.
What’s interesting, though, is that while funding saw a reset, open interest remains elevated, indicating that leveraged longs have also entered.
If spot volume remains low, it might be their turn to get liquidated.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC This time wasn’t different…
Friday strength✔️
Weekend weakness✔️
Pattern continues to play out.
Friday strength✔️
Weekend weakness✔️
Pattern continues to play out.
Quite a important chart to observe...
USDT.D + $BTC
After the clear break in structure from the previous range’s swing low, we can see on USDT.D that price doesn’t drop below that level.
Instead, it holds and consolidates above the range it broke out from. When you correlate this with BTC, it suggests USDT dominance may be due for a bounce as it approaches the prior bullish break of structure.
The same move that aligned with BTC dropping from 97K to 60K. If a similar pattern plays out, it would imply BTC is likely due for a HTF correction, especially if USDT.D holds above that previous BOS and doesn’t break lower as seen in 2022.
USDT.D + $BTC
After the clear break in structure from the previous range’s swing low, we can see on USDT.D that price doesn’t drop below that level.
Instead, it holds and consolidates above the range it broke out from. When you correlate this with BTC, it suggests USDT dominance may be due for a bounce as it approaches the prior bullish break of structure.
The same move that aligned with BTC dropping from 97K to 60K. If a similar pattern plays out, it would imply BTC is likely due for a HTF correction, especially if USDT.D holds above that previous BOS and doesn’t break lower as seen in 2022.
$BTC │ Swing short update.
I’m still positioned the same. As mentioned in my previous update, I closed the add at BE to improve my average from 74.6K to 76K. That proved to be a solid decision, as price reacted immediately after tapping my average entry.
With it now being the start of May, I’ve already outlined the likelihood of a sweep above the PMO (previous monthly high). This remains the zone where I plan to scale further into the position to continue improving my overall swing entry.
Some may ask why I don’t simply wait for clear structure or an ideal point of interest before entering. The reasoning is straightforward, I prefer to build into positions early to avoid being front-run. As a HTF trader, I take a limited number of swing trades, and waiting for perfect entries can often take weeks or even months. I’d rather secure exposure slightly early on a high-conviction idea than risk missing the move entirely.
Since my average has improved following the 78K add (as previously noted), I’m now adjusting my soft stop-loss (SSL) from 83K to 84K. I’ll manually close the position if I believe the short thesis has been fully invalidated.
This approach is consistent across my HTF positions, scaling in strategically to improve entry while progressively adjusting invalidation levels as the trade develops.
So far, all 6 out of 6 swing shorts have played out successfully and delivered great returns. While it’s inevitable that I’ll eventually be wrong, maintaining conviction and discipline is essential. I’m continuing to follow the same system that has allowed me to capture each meaningful swing short to date.
I’m still positioned the same. As mentioned in my previous update, I closed the add at BE to improve my average from 74.6K to 76K. That proved to be a solid decision, as price reacted immediately after tapping my average entry.
With it now being the start of May, I’ve already outlined the likelihood of a sweep above the PMO (previous monthly high). This remains the zone where I plan to scale further into the position to continue improving my overall swing entry.
Some may ask why I don’t simply wait for clear structure or an ideal point of interest before entering. The reasoning is straightforward, I prefer to build into positions early to avoid being front-run. As a HTF trader, I take a limited number of swing trades, and waiting for perfect entries can often take weeks or even months. I’d rather secure exposure slightly early on a high-conviction idea than risk missing the move entirely.
Since my average has improved following the 78K add (as previously noted), I’m now adjusting my soft stop-loss (SSL) from 83K to 84K. I’ll manually close the position if I believe the short thesis has been fully invalidated.
This approach is consistent across my HTF positions, scaling in strategically to improve entry while progressively adjusting invalidation levels as the trade develops.
So far, all 6 out of 6 swing shorts have played out successfully and delivered great returns. While it’s inevitable that I’ll eventually be wrong, maintaining conviction and discipline is essential. I’m continuing to follow the same system that has allowed me to capture each meaningful swing short to date.
If we look at how $BTC typically performs in Q2 during a bear market, the pattern is fairly consistent.
May tends to be mixed, but in the last 2 bear cycles it actually performed quite badly. The key factor isn’t just May itself, it’s the reaction that follows and how BTC behaves going into Q3.
With May and June often being relatively slow, August and September have historically been the weakest months in bear markets, frequently retracing most, if not all, of the prior Q2 upside moves.
That’s why I prefer to position myself as a buyer during August and September. As stated previously.
May tends to be mixed, but in the last 2 bear cycles it actually performed quite badly. The key factor isn’t just May itself, it’s the reaction that follows and how BTC behaves going into Q3.
With May and June often being relatively slow, August and September have historically been the weakest months in bear markets, frequently retracing most, if not all, of the prior Q2 upside moves.
That’s why I prefer to position myself as a buyer during August and September. As stated previously.
$BTC Cycle Compression Is Real And The Market Is Running Out Of Time
The chart reveals a clear structural evolution where each macro cycle peak forms at progressively lower deviation levels from the golden curve, signaling diminishing upside expansion and tightening volatility bands. This compression suggests that exponential blow off phases are weakening as market maturity increases, while institutional flows reshape the curvature into a more controlled growth trajectory.
Historically, cycle tops aligned with higher deviation zones such as +5 in 2013 and +4 in 2017, but the 2021 peak already dropped to +3, confirming a structural shift. If this pattern persists, the upcoming cycle is likely to top around +1, placing the projected peak within a significantly narrower range and reducing the probability of parabolic excess.
The halving sine wave overlay reinforces timing precision, with cycle tops consistently forming near negative zero crossings, pointing toward a late 2025 window. Confluence between temporal cycles and diminishing curve expansion creates a high probability zone where price exhaustion meets structural resistance.
This is no longer a market driven purely by retail euphoria, it is a system transitioning into equilibrium. The real question is not how high Bitcoin can go, but how compressed the final move will be before volatility collapses into a new regime.
The chart reveals a clear structural evolution where each macro cycle peak forms at progressively lower deviation levels from the golden curve, signaling diminishing upside expansion and tightening volatility bands. This compression suggests that exponential blow off phases are weakening as market maturity increases, while institutional flows reshape the curvature into a more controlled growth trajectory.
Historically, cycle tops aligned with higher deviation zones such as +5 in 2013 and +4 in 2017, but the 2021 peak already dropped to +3, confirming a structural shift. If this pattern persists, the upcoming cycle is likely to top around +1, placing the projected peak within a significantly narrower range and reducing the probability of parabolic excess.
The halving sine wave overlay reinforces timing precision, with cycle tops consistently forming near negative zero crossings, pointing toward a late 2025 window. Confluence between temporal cycles and diminishing curve expansion creates a high probability zone where price exhaustion meets structural resistance.
This is no longer a market driven purely by retail euphoria, it is a system transitioning into equilibrium. The real question is not how high Bitcoin can go, but how compressed the final move will be before volatility collapses into a new regime.
Connectez-vous pour découvrir d’autres contenus