đš FEDWATCH JUST FLIPPED THE SCRIPT. đ
Forget the usual ârate cut = bullishâ headlines.
The real story is how FAST expectations changed.
đ CME FedWatch currently shows:
âĄïž 89.5% probability of a 25 bps hike
âĄïž 10.5% probability of no change
And hereâs the crazy part: just one week ago, the probabilities were basically reversed â about 58.4% for a hike vs 41.6% for no change.
Why the sudden repricing?
đ„ August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY
đ„ Core CPI remained 2.4% YoY
đ„ Energy prices jumped 16.3% YoY
đ„ August payrolls increased 162K, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%
đ„ The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering around 5%
đĄ HEREâS THE IMPORTANT PART:
FedWatch is not a prediction by the Federal Reserve.
It is the marketâs implied probability, calculated from 30-Day Fed Funds futures. So when that probability moves dramatically, it tells us something important about how traders are repricing monetary-policy risk.
For crypto traders, this means donât watch BTC alone.
đ Watch:
FedWatch â Treasury yields â Dollar â BTC liquidity
One number changes the narrative.
The speed of the repricing tells you how nervous the market really is.
And todayâs FOMC decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
đ„ The bigger question isnât âWill the Fed hike?â
Itâs:
WHAT WILL THE FED SIGNAL ABOUT THE NEXT MEETING?
That could matter more for crypto than todayâs 25 bps itself.
đ BTC traders â are you watching FedWatch today?
â ïž Educational content only. Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FedWatch #crypto #bitcoin #trading #Community
$BTC
Forget the usual ârate cut = bullishâ headlines.
The real story is how FAST expectations changed.
đ CME FedWatch currently shows:
âĄïž 89.5% probability of a 25 bps hike
âĄïž 10.5% probability of no change
And hereâs the crazy part: just one week ago, the probabilities were basically reversed â about 58.4% for a hike vs 41.6% for no change.
Why the sudden repricing?
đ„ August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY
đ„ Core CPI remained 2.4% YoY
đ„ Energy prices jumped 16.3% YoY
đ„ August payrolls increased 162K, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%
đ„ The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering around 5%
đĄ HEREâS THE IMPORTANT PART:
FedWatch is not a prediction by the Federal Reserve.
It is the marketâs implied probability, calculated from 30-Day Fed Funds futures. So when that probability moves dramatically, it tells us something important about how traders are repricing monetary-policy risk.
For crypto traders, this means donât watch BTC alone.
đ Watch:
FedWatch â Treasury yields â Dollar â BTC liquidity
One number changes the narrative.
The speed of the repricing tells you how nervous the market really is.
And todayâs FOMC decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
đ„ The bigger question isnât âWill the Fed hike?â
Itâs:
WHAT WILL THE FED SIGNAL ABOUT THE NEXT MEETING?
That could matter more for crypto than todayâs 25 bps itself.
đ BTC traders â are you watching FedWatch today?
â ïž Educational content only. Not financial advice. DYOR.
#FedWatch #crypto #bitcoin #trading #Community
$BTC
