Publier
--Haussier
VICTORIA _777
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HaussierThe labor market just made the Fed’s job harder. 👀
August NFP came in stronger than expected at 162K, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
That tells me the economy isn’t showing enough weakness to force the Fed’s hand toward easier policy.
But now inflation takes center stage.
August PPI came in hot at 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, while rising energy prices could add even more pressure.
So I’m leaning slightly risk-off heading into CPI.
A hotter CPI — especially a sticky core print — could push rate expectations higher, lift Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar. That’s not exactly the setup stocks and gold want.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, the entire narrative could reverse almost instantly.
Markets don’t trade the number alone.
They trade the surprise.
Hotter than expected = potentially bearish.
Cooler than expected = potentially bullish.
For now, I’m not picking a side.
I’m watching the gap between CPI and expectations.
That’s where the real volatility could start. 👀
#CPIWatch
$RAYSOL
$KOMA
August NFP came in stronger than expected at 162K, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
That tells me the economy isn’t showing enough weakness to force the Fed’s hand toward easier policy.
But now inflation takes center stage.
August PPI came in hot at 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, while rising energy prices could add even more pressure.
So I’m leaning slightly risk-off heading into CPI.
A hotter CPI — especially a sticky core print — could push rate expectations higher, lift Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar. That’s not exactly the setup stocks and gold want.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, the entire narrative could reverse almost instantly.
Markets don’t trade the number alone.
They trade the surprise.
Hotter than expected = potentially bearish.
Cooler than expected = potentially bullish.
For now, I’m not picking a side.
I’m watching the gap between CPI and expectations.
That’s where the real volatility could start. 👀
#CPIWatch
$RAYSOL
$KOMA
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