most 𝗰𝗽𝗶 prints move the market for a morning.

this one knocked 12 points off september hike odds before lunch.

june numbers, out this morning:

→ headline down 0.4% on the month, biggest drop since 2020
→ 3.5% annual vs 3.8% expected
→ may was 4.2%, so almost a full point of cooling in one print
→ core flat on the month, 2.6% for the year
→ energy down 𝟱.𝟳% after three straight months of gains
→ september hike odds: 63%, from 75%+ yesterday

𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆.

core didn't budge. and the hormuz blockade is already pushing oil back up.

if crude keeps running, the july print hands most of this back.

$BTC barely moved, still parked around $62,600.

watching the oil chart more than the fed 👀

#cpi #bitcoin