Let me tell you a secretđ€«
Bitcoin hasnât topped yet; in fact, weâre not even close.
A lot of people are fixated on this â4-year cycleâ pattern weâve seen in the past and assume itâs some kind of unbreakable law. But the truth is, Bitcoin doesnât have a magical 4-year timer baked into its protocol. What weâve actually been following all this time is the broader global liquidity and business cycle; the halving just happens to line up roughly every four years, so it looks like thatâs the driver when really itâs a coincidence.
Think of Bitcoin as the ultimate barometer for excess liquidity in the system. Itâs not a productive asset like a company that generates cash flow; itâs pure speculative money that absorbs liquidity when thereâs too much floating around and gets crushed when liquidity dries up.
Right now weâre living through the longest monetary tightening / business-cycle contraction in modern history. Thatâs why this cycle has felt so different: no explosive parabolic leg, just grind up, sideways chop, sharp pullbacks, repeat. Normally in a tightening environment Bitcoin would have just bled out quietly, but this time we actually managed to push higher anyway, mainly because of massive institutional buying and nation-state accumulation (ETFs, corporate treasuries, countries adding it to reserves, etc.). That new demand masked how brutal the liquidity backdrop really has been.
But that contraction phase is now historically extended; itâs on borrowed time. Starting very soon (early December), the liquidity spigots are getting turned back on in a meaningful way.
The sequence is always the same:
âą Liquidity eases first â business conditions improve â risk assets finally get room to run.
We are standing literally on the doorstep of global reflation. Betting on a multi-year bear market right now would mean betting against the most reliable driver of risk-asset cycles weâve ever had: liquidity and the business cycle itself.
That pattern has never failed in the fiat era. I wouldnât start doubting it the moment the setup looks the most bullish it ever has.
