The market is completely split on the Fed’s next move.

Will it cut rates in December, or stay put?

It depends on who you ask.

CME Futures:

Trades in the traditional market see less than a 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates in December.

Their message: the Fed might wait for clearer data.

Kalshi (prediction market):

Bettors disagree — they still price in roughly a ~59% probability of a 25 bps cut.

Their message: the economy is slowing and the Fed will act.

What does this divergence mean?

• Traditional markets want macro confirmation.

• Prediction markets react to weakness in jobs, credit, and consumption.

• The divergence highlights one clear thing: uncertainty is at a maximum, and volatility could explode at the next FOMC.