10x Volatility Edge — How Smart Money Is Repositioning

Bitcoin’s one-week implied volatility for the April 24 expiry stands at 46.3% today, down from a peak of 55.6% visible just weeks ago and continuing the compression that began after the February spike to 91.6%.

More instructive is the shape of the term structure. A week ago, the curve ran from 44.2% at the front month to 47.9% at the March 2027 expiry, a gentle contango consistent with a market absorbing residual near-term uncertainty.

Today, that picture has changed: the front expiry sits at 46.7%, creating a localized inversion before the curve drops to 42.5% at the May and June expiries and then recovers to 47.1% at March 2027.

The Bitcoin skew tells the most important sentiment story of the week.

The 25-delta risk reversal for the April 24 expiry has moved from −5.7% a week ago to −2.4% today, a 3.3 percentage point improvement toward neutral.

Across the entire term structure, every expiry shows a shallower put premium relative to seven days ago.

Traders who were paying up aggressively for puts during the April selloff are now unwinding those hedges, and the flow data confirms this.

The most actively traded contract today is the April 24 $70,000 put being sold (−339 contracts), a direct unwind of the bearish positioning established during the lows.

How big players have now positioned themselves for Bitcoin's next move and our full BTC and ETH volatility chart book see link in bio to our research.