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The +119% Crypto Stocks Rally That Could Reshape the U.S. Stock Market Sectors
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto equities are up +119% year-to-date—outpacing Bitcoin and nearly every major asset class.
Behind the headlines, a powerful shift is unfolding as Wall Street quietly backs a new wave of digital asset companies.
From IPO pipelines to covered call strategies, the infrastructure is being built for something bigger than another bull run.
This isn’t just about crypto—it’s about a potential new sector emerging within the S&P 500.
Volatility is declining, capital is shifting, and the traditional financial system is beginning to take notice.
Main argument
One of our core themes for 2025 is that Wall Street has a strong incentive to keep Bitcoin prices elevated, as over $100 billion in crypto-related IPOs are preparing to enter public markets.
Circle, for example, projected a $5 billion valuation in May 2025. Yet, its market cap has already reached $41 billion, with shares trading around $180—more than double the $80 price target set by analysts at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
As Wall Street begins to cover and promote these crypto equities, they—and the companies that follow—will increasingly become part of institutional portfolios.
While 2024 was defined by Bitcoin ETF inflows, 2025 is shaping up to be the year of crypto equities.
This includes not only the wave of IPOs expected to follow Circle’s momentum, but also already-listed crypto-related stocks—from miners, to diversified firms like Coinbase and Galaxy, to treasury-heavy companies such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.
Even Robinhood is part of this broader crypto equity narrative, with 30% of its revenue tied to crypto.
This figure could rise further as it begins offering tokenized stocks in Europe.
Which 13 Stocks Make Up Our Crypto Stocks Index—And How Could They Reshape the S&P 500 Sector Landscape?
The full breakdown is available exclusively in our latest subscriber report.
Click the link in our bio to access the full analysis.
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Crypto equities are up +119% year-to-date—outpacing Bitcoin and nearly every major asset class.
Behind the headlines, a powerful shift is unfolding as Wall Street quietly backs a new wave of digital asset companies.
From IPO pipelines to covered call strategies, the infrastructure is being built for something bigger than another bull run.
This isn’t just about crypto—it’s about a potential new sector emerging within the S&P 500.
Volatility is declining, capital is shifting, and the traditional financial system is beginning to take notice.
Main argument
One of our core themes for 2025 is that Wall Street has a strong incentive to keep Bitcoin prices elevated, as over $100 billion in crypto-related IPOs are preparing to enter public markets.
Circle, for example, projected a $5 billion valuation in May 2025. Yet, its market cap has already reached $41 billion, with shares trading around $180—more than double the $80 price target set by analysts at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
As Wall Street begins to cover and promote these crypto equities, they—and the companies that follow—will increasingly become part of institutional portfolios.
While 2024 was defined by Bitcoin ETF inflows, 2025 is shaping up to be the year of crypto equities.
This includes not only the wave of IPOs expected to follow Circle’s momentum, but also already-listed crypto-related stocks—from miners, to diversified firms like Coinbase and Galaxy, to treasury-heavy companies such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.
Even Robinhood is part of this broader crypto equity narrative, with 30% of its revenue tied to crypto.
This figure could rise further as it begins offering tokenized stocks in Europe.
Which 13 Stocks Make Up Our Crypto Stocks Index—And How Could They Reshape the S&P 500 Sector Landscape?
The full breakdown is available exclusively in our latest subscriber report.
Click the link in our bio to access the full analysis.
Do you want more research from us? We have 67,000 followers here in Binance Square, and we noticed the algorithm is sending our content to fewer and fewer people. If you want to get our research directly, sign up on our website..."10xresearch dot com"....
Why Bitcoin Traders Are Quietly Rotating From Puts to Calls
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters:
Bitcoin just saw a $13 billion drop in options value—a 33% plunge in days that few are talking about.
Volatility is quietly collapsing. Traders are shifting strategies, but not in the way you might expect.
Behind the scenes, institutional flows, macro signals, and positioning shifts are setting the stage for a potentially defining move.
The question now isn’t just where Bitcoin is going, but what the market is pricing in.
Main argument
The notional value of Bitcoin options has just dropped by $13 billion, a 33% decline from just a few days ago—an abrupt shift that could carry significant implications for Bitcoin's near-term outlook.
Since late 2024, Bitcoin derivatives—both futures and options—have become a dominant force, growing from a $10 billion market in 2022 to over $40 billion as of 2025.
This surge has been accompanied by $47 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows and $42 billion in purchases by MicroStrategy, signaling a broad institutionalization of the Bitcoin ecosystem across multiple fronts.
Read the full report to discover why NOW matters, what’s likely to happen NEXT, and how to POSITION for Bitcoin’s next big move.
Click the link in our bio to access the full analysis.
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters:
Bitcoin just saw a $13 billion drop in options value—a 33% plunge in days that few are talking about.
Volatility is quietly collapsing. Traders are shifting strategies, but not in the way you might expect.
Behind the scenes, institutional flows, macro signals, and positioning shifts are setting the stage for a potentially defining move.
The question now isn’t just where Bitcoin is going, but what the market is pricing in.
Main argument
The notional value of Bitcoin options has just dropped by $13 billion, a 33% decline from just a few days ago—an abrupt shift that could carry significant implications for Bitcoin's near-term outlook.
Since late 2024, Bitcoin derivatives—both futures and options—have become a dominant force, growing from a $10 billion market in 2022 to over $40 billion as of 2025.
This surge has been accompanied by $47 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows and $42 billion in purchases by MicroStrategy, signaling a broad institutionalization of the Bitcoin ecosystem across multiple fronts.
Read the full report to discover why NOW matters, what’s likely to happen NEXT, and how to POSITION for Bitcoin’s next big move.
Click the link in our bio to access the full analysis.
Is Coinbase Running Too Hot After Its 88% Rally?
Why this report matters
Coinbase has surged 88% since mid-May, far outpacing Bitcoin, trading volume, and nearly every crypto stock in its peer group.
But do fundamentals still back this move, or are we entering a zone of overexcitement?
Our latest analysis delves into valuation signals, retail inflows from Korea, and what is truly driving the disconnect between Coinbase and the broader cryptocurrency market.
One simple regression model explains 75% of the stock’s price action, and it’s flashing a potential warning.
Meanwhile, sentiment is cooling in other crypto favorites, such as Circle and KakaoPay.
Main argument
We’ve maintained a bullish view on Coinbase, with our valuation trigger aligning with its inclusion in the S&P 500, announced on May 19, when the stock was trading at $264.
In our May 12 market report, we highlighted a significant divergence between Bitcoin and Coinbase’s share price, with COIN trading at $199 while Bitcoin stood at $102,971.
At the time, our regression model indicated that Coinbase was undervalued by 32%, near historical lows.
Even in our June 8 update, the model still indicated that Coinbase was trading 18% below fair value, and we noted its strong positioning as a key beneficiary of Circle’s growing stablecoin business. But what should investors do now? As always -> actionable insights from us:
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Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT with @coinbase and in the #Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Why this report matters
Coinbase has surged 88% since mid-May, far outpacing Bitcoin, trading volume, and nearly every crypto stock in its peer group.
But do fundamentals still back this move, or are we entering a zone of overexcitement?
Our latest analysis delves into valuation signals, retail inflows from Korea, and what is truly driving the disconnect between Coinbase and the broader cryptocurrency market.
One simple regression model explains 75% of the stock’s price action, and it’s flashing a potential warning.
Meanwhile, sentiment is cooling in other crypto favorites, such as Circle and KakaoPay.
Main argument
We’ve maintained a bullish view on Coinbase, with our valuation trigger aligning with its inclusion in the S&P 500, announced on May 19, when the stock was trading at $264.
In our May 12 market report, we highlighted a significant divergence between Bitcoin and Coinbase’s share price, with COIN trading at $199 while Bitcoin stood at $102,971.
At the time, our regression model indicated that Coinbase was undervalued by 32%, near historical lows.
Even in our June 8 update, the model still indicated that Coinbase was trading 18% below fair value, and we noted its strong positioning as a key beneficiary of Circle’s growing stablecoin business. But what should investors do now? As always -> actionable insights from us:
------>>>>>>
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT with @coinbase and in the #Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
How Smart Money Is Quietly Capping Bitcoin’s Upside – And What Traders Must Do
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is up, but not by much, and the reasons why may surprise you.
Despite billions in inflows and favorable policy shifts, the market remains range-bound, with volatility fading and upside capped.
Underneath the surface, a quiet power struggle is unfolding.
A new model we've built tracks this capital flow in real time, and it's offering some striking signals.
Is Bitcoin still capable of delivering outsized returns, or has the game changed for good?
The full report reveals the forces driving this market and outlines the steps traders must take to stay ahead.
Main argument
This report delivers a clear and in-depth analysis of why Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has fallen short of expectations and what would be required to alter that path.
It stands out as one of our most important publications this year, offering key insights into the shifting Bitcoin ownership structure and the scale of capital needed to drive meaningful price appreciation.
We also present actionable strategies for traders navigating this evolving landscape, including a tactical flow-based model that has shown strong effectiveness.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Actionable Market Insights
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is up, but not by much, and the reasons why may surprise you.
Despite billions in inflows and favorable policy shifts, the market remains range-bound, with volatility fading and upside capped.
Underneath the surface, a quiet power struggle is unfolding.
A new model we've built tracks this capital flow in real time, and it's offering some striking signals.
Is Bitcoin still capable of delivering outsized returns, or has the game changed for good?
The full report reveals the forces driving this market and outlines the steps traders must take to stay ahead.
Main argument
This report delivers a clear and in-depth analysis of why Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has fallen short of expectations and what would be required to alter that path.
It stands out as one of our most important publications this year, offering key insights into the shifting Bitcoin ownership structure and the scale of capital needed to drive meaningful price appreciation.
We also present actionable strategies for traders navigating this evolving landscape, including a tactical flow-based model that has shown strong effectiveness.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Billions Are Flowing In, So Why Isn’t Bitcoin Moving?
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is up, but barely—just 13% year-to-date—and yet over $63 billion in liquidity has flowed into crypto markets.
With the Fed signaling potential cuts and inflation cooling, something doesn't add up.
The usual drivers, ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate buyers, are active, but Bitcoin isn’t responding as it did last year.
Under the surface, traders are shifting how they express bullishness, quietly adapting to falling volatility and narrowing leadership.
Could this structural shift explain Bitcoin’s muted rally, and what it means for what comes next?
Main argument
When the Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September 2024, markets reacted swiftly—10-year bond yields rallied, signaling that investors saw the move as a policy misstep.
At the time, inflation had already declined from 3.5% in April and would bottom just a month later at 2.4%.
Although inflation briefly rose to 3.0% in February 2025, it has since eased and stabilized at 2.4% for three consecutive months.
With the window for tariff-driven inflation narrowing, all eyes are now on the upcoming July 15 CPI release.
Fed Chair Powell, along with most of his colleagues and many Wall Street economists, had warned that tariffs would push inflation back above 3%. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Inflation remains anchored, and the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, defying fears of labor market deterioration.
The Fed’s tone is shifting.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is up, but barely—just 13% year-to-date—and yet over $63 billion in liquidity has flowed into crypto markets.
With the Fed signaling potential cuts and inflation cooling, something doesn't add up.
The usual drivers, ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate buyers, are active, but Bitcoin isn’t responding as it did last year.
Under the surface, traders are shifting how they express bullishness, quietly adapting to falling volatility and narrowing leadership.
Could this structural shift explain Bitcoin’s muted rally, and what it means for what comes next?
Main argument
When the Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September 2024, markets reacted swiftly—10-year bond yields rallied, signaling that investors saw the move as a policy misstep.
At the time, inflation had already declined from 3.5% in April and would bottom just a month later at 2.4%.
Although inflation briefly rose to 3.0% in February 2025, it has since eased and stabilized at 2.4% for three consecutive months.
With the window for tariff-driven inflation narrowing, all eyes are now on the upcoming July 15 CPI release.
Fed Chair Powell, along with most of his colleagues and many Wall Street economists, had warned that tariffs would push inflation back above 3%. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Inflation remains anchored, and the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, defying fears of labor market deterioration.
The Fed’s tone is shifting.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Why Wall Street’s Favorite Bitcoin Trade Might Be Hiding in Plain Sight
A month ago, in our May 28 report “10 Bearish Signals Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring Right Now,” we noted that “excessive bullishness, as indicated by BTC skew, often serves as a contrarian signal.”
On Monday, that same skew reached levels typically associated with short-term Bitcoin bottoms.
However, caution is warranted, as overall market liquidity remains thin, open interest in Bitcoin continues to unwind, and stablecoin issuance remains subdued.
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in years, but beneath the surface, market structure is quietly shifting.
Implied volatility is diverging across platforms, crypto-native retail speculation is fading, and institutional strategies are reshaping how Bitcoin yield is generated.
Some of the most actively traded Bitcoin options are pricing in very different expectations, and that gap may signal where opportunity lies.
Meanwhile, futures positioning is unwinding rapidly, just as macro narratives begin to shift.
With the July FOMC meeting approaching and Powell preparing to testify, traders are positioning for what could be a pivotal summer.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
A month ago, in our May 28 report “10 Bearish Signals Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring Right Now,” we noted that “excessive bullishness, as indicated by BTC skew, often serves as a contrarian signal.”
On Monday, that same skew reached levels typically associated with short-term Bitcoin bottoms.
However, caution is warranted, as overall market liquidity remains thin, open interest in Bitcoin continues to unwind, and stablecoin issuance remains subdued.
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in years, but beneath the surface, market structure is quietly shifting.
Implied volatility is diverging across platforms, crypto-native retail speculation is fading, and institutional strategies are reshaping how Bitcoin yield is generated.
Some of the most actively traded Bitcoin options are pricing in very different expectations, and that gap may signal where opportunity lies.
Meanwhile, futures positioning is unwinding rapidly, just as macro narratives begin to shift.
With the July FOMC meeting approaching and Powell preparing to testify, traders are positioning for what could be a pivotal summer.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Bitcoin Dominance Surges - So Why Are These Two Indicators Flashing Bear Market?
Why this report matters
While Bitcoin dominance has surged to a new cycle high, two critical indicators are flashing early signs of broader market stress.
Ethereum, once riding a wave of ETF optimism, is now unraveling under the weight of overleveraged futures positions.
See June 5 report: Is Wall Street Really Warming Up to Ethereum? The Truth Behind ETH ETF Inflows (here).
Meanwhile, (market-based) liquidity, a silent driver of every rally, has quietly started to dry up.
Even stablecoin flows, often overlooked, are painting a telling picture as we head into summer.
Some of the market’s biggest buyers are pulling back, and key technical levels are now being tested.
What’s driving this stall—and what happens if support doesn’t hold?
Main argument
As anticipated, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing corrections, with each signaling a shift from bullish to bearish trends.
In our report heading into the weekend (here), we highlighted Ethereum’s vulnerability to breaking below $2,420—a scenario that is now playing out.
However, two critical indicators are on the verge of flipping bearish for Bitcoin—an inflection point that could have broad implications across the entire crypto market, including Ethereum.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Why this report matters
While Bitcoin dominance has surged to a new cycle high, two critical indicators are flashing early signs of broader market stress.
Ethereum, once riding a wave of ETF optimism, is now unraveling under the weight of overleveraged futures positions.
See June 5 report: Is Wall Street Really Warming Up to Ethereum? The Truth Behind ETH ETF Inflows (here).
Meanwhile, (market-based) liquidity, a silent driver of every rally, has quietly started to dry up.
Even stablecoin flows, often overlooked, are painting a telling picture as we head into summer.
Some of the market’s biggest buyers are pulling back, and key technical levels are now being tested.
What’s driving this stall—and what happens if support doesn’t hold?
Main argument
As anticipated, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing corrections, with each signaling a shift from bullish to bearish trends.
In our report heading into the weekend (here), we highlighted Ethereum’s vulnerability to breaking below $2,420—a scenario that is now playing out.
However, two critical indicators are on the verge of flipping bearish for Bitcoin—an inflection point that could have broad implications across the entire crypto market, including Ethereum.
Please read our full report to learn what NOW matters and what is likely to happen NEXT in the Bitcoin and crypto space. See the link in the bio to our website.
Coinbase Just Closed the Valuation Gap—Now What?
Why this report matters
Coinbase shares have been on a tear—outpacing even Bitcoin itself.
But a key valuation signal we’ve been tracking just flipped, raising questions about how much upside is left.
At the same time, Circle’s eye-watering IPO valuation could be distorting expectations for crypto equities more broadly.
The relationship between Coinbase and Bitcoin has historically offered strong tactical signals—and it may be doing so again.
Our latest regression model reveals a shift that traders shouldn’t ignore.
In this report, we break down what’s changed, why it matters now, and the levels you need to watch next.
Main argument
In our June 8 report, we highlighted that Coinbase shares were trading at an 18% discount relative to Bitcoin, based on a historically consistent regression relationship.
Since then, that valuation gap has closed, and the stock is now trading at a 4% premium, according to our model.
This shift suggests the relative undervaluation has been fully corrected.
A short signal would only be triggered if Coinbase reached $350 per share, at which point the premium would exceed our model's upper threshold.
In our May 26 report, we noted that crypto exchange tokens can often be smart investments, as exchanges have a deep understanding of tokenomics and market dynamics.
That view, played out, as the recommended WhiteBit token (WBT) has surged from $30 to $49, gaining +67% over the past month.
However, beyond Hyperliquid, the altcoin landscape has mainly remained uninspiring.
With a key technical signal now flashing, we believe it’s time for investors to reassess their HYPE exposure and proceed with caution.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
Why this report matters
Coinbase shares have been on a tear—outpacing even Bitcoin itself.
But a key valuation signal we’ve been tracking just flipped, raising questions about how much upside is left.
At the same time, Circle’s eye-watering IPO valuation could be distorting expectations for crypto equities more broadly.
The relationship between Coinbase and Bitcoin has historically offered strong tactical signals—and it may be doing so again.
Our latest regression model reveals a shift that traders shouldn’t ignore.
In this report, we break down what’s changed, why it matters now, and the levels you need to watch next.
Main argument
In our June 8 report, we highlighted that Coinbase shares were trading at an 18% discount relative to Bitcoin, based on a historically consistent regression relationship.
Since then, that valuation gap has closed, and the stock is now trading at a 4% premium, according to our model.
This shift suggests the relative undervaluation has been fully corrected.
A short signal would only be triggered if Coinbase reached $350 per share, at which point the premium would exceed our model's upper threshold.
In our May 26 report, we noted that crypto exchange tokens can often be smart investments, as exchanges have a deep understanding of tokenomics and market dynamics.
That view, played out, as the recommended WhiteBit token (WBT) has surged from $30 to $49, gaining +67% over the past month.
However, beyond Hyperliquid, the altcoin landscape has mainly remained uninspiring.
With a key technical signal now flashing, we believe it’s time for investors to reassess their HYPE exposure and proceed with caution.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
Why Bitcoin Isn’t Rallying—Even After $12 Billion in Inflows
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has absorbed over $24 billion in demand since mid-April—yet price action has stalled.
Something beneath the surface is offsetting those inflows, and few are talking about it.
While ETF flows and global liquidity charts still dominate headlines, our models suggest a shift may already be underway.
The Fed’s tone is changing, OG wallets are moving, and volatility is quietly compressing.
Traders betting on a breakout, or bracing for a breakdown, need to understand where the real pressure is building.
This report breaks down the signals, reveals what’s holding Bitcoin back, and outlines the two price levels that could change everything.
Main argument
In the crypto space, there is a persistent bias toward highlighting positive developments—especially inflows and buying—while largely ignoring the equally important selling pressure.
This imbalance is one reason much of crypto commentary lacks reliability.
Despite billions in recent inflows, Bitcoin has struggled to rally, suggesting substantial selling is occurring beneath the surface.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
Why this report matters
Bitcoin has absorbed over $24 billion in demand since mid-April—yet price action has stalled.
Something beneath the surface is offsetting those inflows, and few are talking about it.
While ETF flows and global liquidity charts still dominate headlines, our models suggest a shift may already be underway.
The Fed’s tone is changing, OG wallets are moving, and volatility is quietly compressing.
Traders betting on a breakout, or bracing for a breakdown, need to understand where the real pressure is building.
This report breaks down the signals, reveals what’s holding Bitcoin back, and outlines the two price levels that could change everything.
Main argument
In the crypto space, there is a persistent bias toward highlighting positive developments—especially inflows and buying—while largely ignoring the equally important selling pressure.
This imbalance is one reason much of crypto commentary lacks reliability.
Despite billions in recent inflows, Bitcoin has struggled to rally, suggesting substantial selling is occurring beneath the surface.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
How Much Capital It Takes to Push Bitcoin to $1 Million — and
When It Could Happen
Actionable Market Insights
The attached report is typically part of our premium Strategy product, but we’re making it available to our Market Updates subscribers as well.
We hope you find it valuable — enjoy the read.
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Why this report matters:
Bitcoin’s price may be climbing, but the real story isn’t in the charts — it’s in the capital flows you’re not seeing.
While outdated models still dominate headlines, a quiet structural shift is reshaping how this cycle unfolds.
Institutional players have replaced retail mania, and the data tells a very different story from the usual hype.
What if the next leg up isn’t about halving events or speculative sentiment, but something far more measurable — and unstoppable?
We’ve tracked the hidden drivers behind Bitcoin’s momentum and built a framework that challenges every familiar narrative.
Is there truly enough capital in the system to push Bitcoin to $1 million?
More importantly, how much capital would actually be required, and under what realistic conditions could that target be achieved?
How long might it take, assuming those conditions are met?
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
When It Could Happen
Actionable Market Insights
The attached report is typically part of our premium Strategy product, but we’re making it available to our Market Updates subscribers as well.
We hope you find it valuable — enjoy the read.
------
Why this report matters:
Bitcoin’s price may be climbing, but the real story isn’t in the charts — it’s in the capital flows you’re not seeing.
While outdated models still dominate headlines, a quiet structural shift is reshaping how this cycle unfolds.
Institutional players have replaced retail mania, and the data tells a very different story from the usual hype.
What if the next leg up isn’t about halving events or speculative sentiment, but something far more measurable — and unstoppable?
We’ve tracked the hidden drivers behind Bitcoin’s momentum and built a framework that challenges every familiar narrative.
Is there truly enough capital in the system to push Bitcoin to $1 million?
More importantly, how much capital would actually be required, and under what realistic conditions could that target be achieved?
How long might it take, assuming those conditions are met?
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
A Crucial Macro Signal Just Turned Bullish for Bitcoin
As markets digest rising oil prices and resilient bond yields, mixed labor data, and cautious Fed signals, Bitcoin is quietly strengthening its macro case.
Altcoin treasury holdings (ADA, DOT) are potentially pivoting to Bitcoin, and credit conditions are telling a story few are watching.
Beneath the surface, subtle shifts in momentum could be laying the groundwork for a major move later this year.
However, not all signals point upward, timing and positioning will be crucial.
We identified $106,000 as the key line in the sand, and over the past month, Bitcoin has consolidated around this level, trading within a tight ±4% range.
The longer this range-bound behavior continues, the greater the likelihood of a breakout.
Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week’s FOMC meeting, offering little immediate catalyst to shift the market tone.
Bitcoin is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the Israel-Iran conflict from now on, though its consolidation phase may persist due to other factors.
On-chain metrics remain supportive, suggesting any corrections should be relatively shallow as long as prices stay above $100,437.
With little prospect of dovish support from Fed Chair Powell and a risk of rising 10-year U.S. bond yields, despite a softening labor market, macro conditions may keep Bitcoin range-bound in the short term as the summer seasonality kicks in.
But beneath the surface, a key medium- to long-term macro signal has just turned bullish.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
As markets digest rising oil prices and resilient bond yields, mixed labor data, and cautious Fed signals, Bitcoin is quietly strengthening its macro case.
Altcoin treasury holdings (ADA, DOT) are potentially pivoting to Bitcoin, and credit conditions are telling a story few are watching.
Beneath the surface, subtle shifts in momentum could be laying the groundwork for a major move later this year.
However, not all signals point upward, timing and positioning will be crucial.
We identified $106,000 as the key line in the sand, and over the past month, Bitcoin has consolidated around this level, trading within a tight ±4% range.
The longer this range-bound behavior continues, the greater the likelihood of a breakout.
Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week’s FOMC meeting, offering little immediate catalyst to shift the market tone.
Bitcoin is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the Israel-Iran conflict from now on, though its consolidation phase may persist due to other factors.
On-chain metrics remain supportive, suggesting any corrections should be relatively shallow as long as prices stay above $100,437.
With little prospect of dovish support from Fed Chair Powell and a risk of rising 10-year U.S. bond yields, despite a softening labor market, macro conditions may keep Bitcoin range-bound in the short term as the summer seasonality kicks in.
But beneath the surface, a key medium- to long-term macro signal has just turned bullish.
Read the full report, link to the report on our website (see in bio).
What Circle’s $24B IPO Just Revealed about Ethereum’s Rally
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is hovering near critical levels, and Ethereum’s rally may be running on fumes, fueled more by headlines than fundamentals.
Circle’s blockbuster IPO has lit a fire under parts of the crypto market, but beneath the surface, serious valuation cracks are starting to show.
ETF inflows, rising leverage, and SEC signals around DeFi have created a perfect storm of short-term momentum.
But is this the beginning of a sustainable breakout—or the setup for a reversal?
Meanwhile, one high-conviction pair trade is emerging from all the noise, built on fundamentals rather than hype.
Main argument
We've remained cautious about the recent Ethereum rally, and while Bitcoin has broken above the $106,000 resistance level, the momentum behind this move appears relatively weak.
This is even more pronounced in Ethereum, where underlying fundamentals remain soft, yet the price action suggests otherwise.
It’s clear that leveraged traders have piled into ETH, and combined with call option gamma hedging, this has driven prices higher.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s.
Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report. ------>>>>>> check out the link in the bio...
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is hovering near critical levels, and Ethereum’s rally may be running on fumes, fueled more by headlines than fundamentals.
Circle’s blockbuster IPO has lit a fire under parts of the crypto market, but beneath the surface, serious valuation cracks are starting to show.
ETF inflows, rising leverage, and SEC signals around DeFi have created a perfect storm of short-term momentum.
But is this the beginning of a sustainable breakout—or the setup for a reversal?
Meanwhile, one high-conviction pair trade is emerging from all the noise, built on fundamentals rather than hype.
Main argument
We've remained cautious about the recent Ethereum rally, and while Bitcoin has broken above the $106,000 resistance level, the momentum behind this move appears relatively weak.
This is even more pronounced in Ethereum, where underlying fundamentals remain soft, yet the price action suggests otherwise.
It’s clear that leveraged traders have piled into ETH, and combined with call option gamma hedging, this has driven prices higher.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s.
Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report. ------>>>>>> check out the link in the bio...
Leverage Surge Pushes Ethereum to the Brink of Breakout - How to trade it
Why this report matters
Ethereum just posted its strongest move in months—but is it the start of something bigger or another fade in a familiar range?
Behind the headlines, a powerful mix of regulation, roadmap updates, and leveraged positioning is reshaping the market narrative.
From Asia-led flows to options market signals, subtle shifts are telling a deeper story.
Yet key fundamentals remain unresolved, and past patterns warn against easy conclusions.
Main argument
Over the past month, Ethereum has experienced several price surges, each exceeding 10%.
However, all of them quickly reversed, keeping ETH range-bound between $2,500 and $2,700—until now, as it appears to be breaking out, aided by Bitcoin reclaiming the $110,000 level.
We did not call this bullish move, as we believe it’s driven more by sentiment than fundamentals, and our focus was on Bitcoin (and on Solana).
Despite offering staking yields, Ethereum yields still trail U.S. Treasury yields and lacks the characteristics of an actual store of value, and DeFi activity remains low.
While Ethereum isn’t our preferred trade, we believe it’s still worth sharing a few observations and insights.
Market expectations have risen following Vitalik's May 19 scaling roadmap, the SEC’s statement on staking activities on May 29, the Ethereum Foundation's June 5 treasury policy, and the SEC's more permissive stance on DeFi on June 9.
However, key metrics—such as network activity, revenue generation, and DeFi user engagement—remain weak.
Still, in crypto, rising prices can reshape narratives and, in a reflexive loop, start to change fundamentals themselves.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s. Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report.
------>>>>>> check out the link in the bio...
Why this report matters
Ethereum just posted its strongest move in months—but is it the start of something bigger or another fade in a familiar range?
Behind the headlines, a powerful mix of regulation, roadmap updates, and leveraged positioning is reshaping the market narrative.
From Asia-led flows to options market signals, subtle shifts are telling a deeper story.
Yet key fundamentals remain unresolved, and past patterns warn against easy conclusions.
Main argument
Over the past month, Ethereum has experienced several price surges, each exceeding 10%.
However, all of them quickly reversed, keeping ETH range-bound between $2,500 and $2,700—until now, as it appears to be breaking out, aided by Bitcoin reclaiming the $110,000 level.
We did not call this bullish move, as we believe it’s driven more by sentiment than fundamentals, and our focus was on Bitcoin (and on Solana).
Despite offering staking yields, Ethereum yields still trail U.S. Treasury yields and lacks the characteristics of an actual store of value, and DeFi activity remains low.
While Ethereum isn’t our preferred trade, we believe it’s still worth sharing a few observations and insights.
Market expectations have risen following Vitalik's May 19 scaling roadmap, the SEC’s statement on staking activities on May 29, the Ethereum Foundation's June 5 treasury policy, and the SEC's more permissive stance on DeFi on June 9.
However, key metrics—such as network activity, revenue generation, and DeFi user engagement—remain weak.
Still, in crypto, rising prices can reshape narratives and, in a reflexive loop, start to change fundamentals themselves.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s. Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report.
------>>>>>> check out the link in the bio...
The One Chart That Could Predict Bitcoin’s Next 29% Move
In this two-part series, we explore who the real buyers are behind the current Bitcoin bull market and examine the key data points that could offer insight into where Bitcoin’s price is headed.
In tomorrow’s follow-up report, we’ll take on the inherently uncertain task of projecting how long this bull market might last and what price range Bitcoin could potentially reach.
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is approaching new all-time highs, but this rally bears little resemblance to the ones that came before it.
Crypto retail investors have pulled back, yet prices continue to climb.
So who’s doing the buying, and why now?
Behind the scenes, a powerful and underappreciated dynamic is quietly reshaping the entire market structure.
Main argument
In October 2022, our contrarian analysis accurately identified the bottom of the bear market.
While predicting the top is far more difficult, our following report will outline the fundamental factors that could shape the peak of this cycle.
One critical indicator we're already seeing is the rapid decline in Bitcoin held on exchanges—a trend we’ll explore in today’s report, along with its historical significance and what it might suggest for the current market.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s follow-up, where we’ll estimate how long the current Bitcoin bull market could last.
Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report.
In this two-part series, we explore who the real buyers are behind the current Bitcoin bull market and examine the key data points that could offer insight into where Bitcoin’s price is headed.
In tomorrow’s follow-up report, we’ll take on the inherently uncertain task of projecting how long this bull market might last and what price range Bitcoin could potentially reach.
Why this report matters
Bitcoin is approaching new all-time highs, but this rally bears little resemblance to the ones that came before it.
Crypto retail investors have pulled back, yet prices continue to climb.
So who’s doing the buying, and why now?
Behind the scenes, a powerful and underappreciated dynamic is quietly reshaping the entire market structure.
Main argument
In October 2022, our contrarian analysis accurately identified the bottom of the bear market.
While predicting the top is far more difficult, our following report will outline the fundamental factors that could shape the peak of this cycle.
One critical indicator we're already seeing is the rapid decline in Bitcoin held on exchanges—a trend we’ll explore in today’s report, along with its historical significance and what it might suggest for the current market.
Be sure to read today’s report, and don’t miss tomorrow’s follow-up, where we’ll estimate how long the current Bitcoin bull market could last.
Check the link in our bio or visit our website to read the full report.
Why Crypto Stocks Are Outperforming Bitcoin Again
Why This Report Matters
Crypto equities are breaking away from Bitcoin’s flat performance, and the market is starting to notice.
With $300 billion now parked in listed crypto stocks, institutional capital is clearly making a directional bet.
Circle’s explosive IPO, Robinhood’s crypto revenue surge, and Coinbase’s underappreciated stake in USDC all point to a structural shift.
Retail investors, priced out of Bitcoin, are chasing exposure through cheaper proxy stocks.
Regulatory clarity in both the U.S. and Hong Kong adds momentum to the trend.
Main Argument
The combined market value of publicly listed crypto companies has now surpassed $300 billion, signaling renewed investor interest, even as Bitcoin’s performance remained flat over the past week.
Crypto equities have notably outperformed, with demand rising despite miners lagging due to increased network hashrate and difficulty, which signal intensified competition.
Investors may now look to identify undervalued plays in the space; while Circle appears richly valued, its IPO success reflects strong appetite fueled by growing regulatory clarity.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 near the lower band and volatility relatively muted, there's a compelling case for equity investors to gain crypto exposure through stocks.
A simple regression suggests Coinbase shares are currently trading 18% below fair value, potentially justified by its strategic equity stake in Circle.
Robinhood remains in a strong uptrend, and Galaxy Digital may also be undervalued; in both cases, diversified crypto firms appear more attractive than pure-play miners.
Check out our full report - link in bio to our website.
Why This Report Matters
Crypto equities are breaking away from Bitcoin’s flat performance, and the market is starting to notice.
With $300 billion now parked in listed crypto stocks, institutional capital is clearly making a directional bet.
Circle’s explosive IPO, Robinhood’s crypto revenue surge, and Coinbase’s underappreciated stake in USDC all point to a structural shift.
Retail investors, priced out of Bitcoin, are chasing exposure through cheaper proxy stocks.
Regulatory clarity in both the U.S. and Hong Kong adds momentum to the trend.
Main Argument
The combined market value of publicly listed crypto companies has now surpassed $300 billion, signaling renewed investor interest, even as Bitcoin’s performance remained flat over the past week.
Crypto equities have notably outperformed, with demand rising despite miners lagging due to increased network hashrate and difficulty, which signal intensified competition.
Investors may now look to identify undervalued plays in the space; while Circle appears richly valued, its IPO success reflects strong appetite fueled by growing regulatory clarity.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 near the lower band and volatility relatively muted, there's a compelling case for equity investors to gain crypto exposure through stocks.
A simple regression suggests Coinbase shares are currently trading 18% below fair value, potentially justified by its strategic equity stake in Circle.
Robinhood remains in a strong uptrend, and Galaxy Digital may also be undervalued; in both cases, diversified crypto firms appear more attractive than pure-play miners.
Check out our full report - link in bio to our website.
Is Circle’s IPO the Next Coinbase Moment—or a Signal to Sell Bitcoin?
Why this report matters
Crypto markets just witnessed another major milestone: Circle’s IPO.
The listing was met with feverish demand and a near 200% rally—but is that a bullish endorsement, or déjà vu of Coinbase’s euphoric peak in 2021?
Behind the headlines lies a subtle shift in market structure, driven by a new wave of IPOs, a widening arbitrage game, and platform profits that dwarf those of most DeFi protocols.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's rally is showing signs of fatigue, and macroeconomic uncertainties are beginning to take a bite.
Could this be the summer Wall Street starts reallocating—from Bitcoin to IPO darlings?
Our latest deep dive breaks down what’s driving flows—and where smart capital might go next.
Main arguments
We turned cautious on Bitcoin as of May 25 (BTC @ $108,500) and recommended locking in profits.
Since then, our trading signals have flagged several short opportunities—most notably, the SOL-USDT short has returned 11%, while NEAR, AVAX, and HBAR are each down roughly 20%.
Our report, “10 Bearish Signals Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring Right Now,” remains highly relevant, though new concerns are beginning to emerge.
One of them is MicroStrategy, which increasingly looks tapped out; last week’s purchase totaled just $75 million, its smallest in recent months.
All eyes will be on whether they skip this weekend’s expected buy, which could further signal waning institutional momentum.
But what is the Circle IPO really signaling—and what could it mean for Bitcoin next? Our latest report breaks it all down. Tap the link in our bio to read more on our website.
Why this report matters
Crypto markets just witnessed another major milestone: Circle’s IPO.
The listing was met with feverish demand and a near 200% rally—but is that a bullish endorsement, or déjà vu of Coinbase’s euphoric peak in 2021?
Behind the headlines lies a subtle shift in market structure, driven by a new wave of IPOs, a widening arbitrage game, and platform profits that dwarf those of most DeFi protocols.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's rally is showing signs of fatigue, and macroeconomic uncertainties are beginning to take a bite.
Could this be the summer Wall Street starts reallocating—from Bitcoin to IPO darlings?
Our latest deep dive breaks down what’s driving flows—and where smart capital might go next.
Main arguments
We turned cautious on Bitcoin as of May 25 (BTC @ $108,500) and recommended locking in profits.
Since then, our trading signals have flagged several short opportunities—most notably, the SOL-USDT short has returned 11%, while NEAR, AVAX, and HBAR are each down roughly 20%.
Our report, “10 Bearish Signals Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring Right Now,” remains highly relevant, though new concerns are beginning to emerge.
One of them is MicroStrategy, which increasingly looks tapped out; last week’s purchase totaled just $75 million, its smallest in recent months.
All eyes will be on whether they skip this weekend’s expected buy, which could further signal waning institutional momentum.
But what is the Circle IPO really signaling—and what could it mean for Bitcoin next? Our latest report breaks it all down. Tap the link in our bio to read more on our website.
Is Wall Street Really Warming Up to Ethereum? The Truth Behind ETH ETF Inflows
A year ago, when enthusiasm for the launch of Ethereum ETFs was at its peak, we took a contrarian bearish stance.
Wall Street lacked a compelling marketing narrative to position these products to institutional investors, and on-chain activity on the Ethereum network was largely stagnant.
Unsurprisingly, Ether prices fell from $4,000 to $1,500.
Why this report matters
Now, as financial markets rebound, helped by easing concerns over Trump's tariffs, Ethereum has also recovered.
While we expected a pullback a few days ago, price action has proven more resilient than anticipated.
Where do we stand on Ethereum today?
Technically, Ethereum is approaching the apex of a broader triangle formation, with an eventual breakout likely to push prices toward either $2,000 or $3,000.
Such a move would be significant and could be triggered by shifting fundamentals or simply the entry of a large buyer.
The key questions now:
Has Wall Street finally begun effectively marketing Ethereum ETFs to long-only investors, potentially unlocking a similar inflow dynamic to Bitcoin?
Has on-chain activity improved after the Petra upgrade, as Ethereum attempts to recapture value lost to Layer 2s?
And is Sharplink Gaming’s $425 million ETH treasury purchase a sign that institutional adoption is finally taking root?
Or is the recent progress of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill advancing in the U.S. Senate, the real catalyst behind Ethereum’s price resilience?
We answer all those important questions in our latest report, see link in the bio to our website and take it from there. A big move is coming....
--
A year ago, when enthusiasm for the launch of Ethereum ETFs was at its peak, we took a contrarian bearish stance.
Wall Street lacked a compelling marketing narrative to position these products to institutional investors, and on-chain activity on the Ethereum network was largely stagnant.
Unsurprisingly, Ether prices fell from $4,000 to $1,500.
Why this report matters
Now, as financial markets rebound, helped by easing concerns over Trump's tariffs, Ethereum has also recovered.
While we expected a pullback a few days ago, price action has proven more resilient than anticipated.
Where do we stand on Ethereum today?
Technically, Ethereum is approaching the apex of a broader triangle formation, with an eventual breakout likely to push prices toward either $2,000 or $3,000.
Such a move would be significant and could be triggered by shifting fundamentals or simply the entry of a large buyer.
The key questions now:
Has Wall Street finally begun effectively marketing Ethereum ETFs to long-only investors, potentially unlocking a similar inflow dynamic to Bitcoin?
Has on-chain activity improved after the Petra upgrade, as Ethereum attempts to recapture value lost to Layer 2s?
And is Sharplink Gaming’s $425 million ETH treasury purchase a sign that institutional adoption is finally taking root?
Or is the recent progress of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill advancing in the U.S. Senate, the real catalyst behind Ethereum’s price resilience?
We answer all those important questions in our latest report, see link in the bio to our website and take it from there. A big move is coming....
--
The One Chart Explaining Why Altcoins Still Aren’t Moving
Why This Report Matters
Altcoin bulls were promised fireworks—what crypto Twitter once called the "banana zone"—but reality has delivered a slow grind.
Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs and attracting deep-pocketed institutions, altcoins are stuck in neutral, weighed down by relentless unlocks and a narrative void.
The old playbook of hype and leverage isn’t working in a world of 4.5% bond yields.
Even Ethereum, once the heart of crypto innovation, has settled into staking for a modest yield.
So what’s really holding altcoins back this cycle—and who, if anyone, is still buying?
The answers reveal a very different market structure than many expected.
Main Argument
It doesn’t take much to trigger altcoin pumps; a few well-placed buy orders can easily overwhelm low liquidity.
However, sustaining those rallies is a different story.
That requires broader participation from retail investors, and that’s where the real challenge lies.
For over a year, crypto Twitter has repeatedly promised an explosive altcoin season, what some dubbed the “banana zone.”
But that narrative has yet to materialize.
Despite the hype, we still aren’t seeing the key ingredients needed to support such a rally.
Read the full report, see link in the bio, and understand why is truly holding altcoins back...
Why This Report Matters
Altcoin bulls were promised fireworks—what crypto Twitter once called the "banana zone"—but reality has delivered a slow grind.
Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs and attracting deep-pocketed institutions, altcoins are stuck in neutral, weighed down by relentless unlocks and a narrative void.
The old playbook of hype and leverage isn’t working in a world of 4.5% bond yields.
Even Ethereum, once the heart of crypto innovation, has settled into staking for a modest yield.
So what’s really holding altcoins back this cycle—and who, if anyone, is still buying?
The answers reveal a very different market structure than many expected.
Main Argument
It doesn’t take much to trigger altcoin pumps; a few well-placed buy orders can easily overwhelm low liquidity.
However, sustaining those rallies is a different story.
That requires broader participation from retail investors, and that’s where the real challenge lies.
For over a year, crypto Twitter has repeatedly promised an explosive altcoin season, what some dubbed the “banana zone.”
But that narrative has yet to materialize.
Despite the hype, we still aren’t seeing the key ingredients needed to support such a rally.
Read the full report, see link in the bio, and understand why is truly holding altcoins back...
Blinded by Liquidity: Bitcoin’s False Prophet
Why This Report Matters
Bitcoin continues to climb, but the story behind the rally may not be what most investors think.
At the center of it all is a seductive narrative—one that promises clarity through the lens of global liquidity.
The charts look convincing, the correlation looks strong… until it suddenly isn’t.
History has shown how quickly conviction can turn into complacency.
What if the most widely accepted explanation for Bitcoin’s move is also its biggest risk?
We unpack the cracks forming beneath the surface, and what savvy investors need to watch before the next move surprises the crowd.
Main Argument
Macro theories often capture investors' imaginations, but the reality is less glamorous.
Over the past two decades, macro investing has been one of the most challenging strategies for hedge funds.
Notably, legends like Soros and Druckenmiller based much of their success on bottom-up analysis, despite being labeled macro investors.
Peter Thiel also found early success in macro before ultimately returning to his roots in tech-focused venture capital. And economists?
They’re notoriously unreliable when it comes to forecasting economic data.
While macro commentary often sounds intellectually compelling, relying solely on this lens rarely leads to consistent investment success.
More often, it functions as a narrative device for Wall Street rather than a practical framework for generating returns.
Peter Thiel is known for asking a provocative question to test contrarian thinking: “Tell me something that’s true that almost nobody agrees with you on.” But this question can just as easily be flipped: “Tell me something that’s false that almost nobody disagrees with you on.”
Both versions are designed to uncover originality of thought and the courage to challenge consensus, even when it’s unpopular.
We believe the claim that Bitcoin is driven solely by liquidity is flawed, and below, we explain why that narrative doesn’t hold up.
Read our full report, helping you understand what everybody gets wrong about Liquidity (link in the bio)...
Bitcoin continues to climb, but the story behind the rally may not be what most investors think.
At the center of it all is a seductive narrative—one that promises clarity through the lens of global liquidity.
The charts look convincing, the correlation looks strong… until it suddenly isn’t.
History has shown how quickly conviction can turn into complacency.
What if the most widely accepted explanation for Bitcoin’s move is also its biggest risk?
We unpack the cracks forming beneath the surface, and what savvy investors need to watch before the next move surprises the crowd.
Main Argument
Macro theories often capture investors' imaginations, but the reality is less glamorous.
Over the past two decades, macro investing has been one of the most challenging strategies for hedge funds.
Notably, legends like Soros and Druckenmiller based much of their success on bottom-up analysis, despite being labeled macro investors.
Peter Thiel also found early success in macro before ultimately returning to his roots in tech-focused venture capital. And economists?
They’re notoriously unreliable when it comes to forecasting economic data.
While macro commentary often sounds intellectually compelling, relying solely on this lens rarely leads to consistent investment success.
More often, it functions as a narrative device for Wall Street rather than a practical framework for generating returns.
Peter Thiel is known for asking a provocative question to test contrarian thinking: “Tell me something that’s true that almost nobody agrees with you on.” But this question can just as easily be flipped: “Tell me something that’s false that almost nobody disagrees with you on.”
Both versions are designed to uncover originality of thought and the courage to challenge consensus, even when it’s unpopular.
We believe the claim that Bitcoin is driven solely by liquidity is flawed, and below, we explain why that narrative doesn’t hold up.
Read our full report, helping you understand what everybody gets wrong about Liquidity (link in the bio)...
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