[Context]
Tron (TRX) is a blockchain ecosystem that focuses on decentralizing the internet through high-speed, scalable infrastructure. Founded by Justin Sun in 2017, Tron supports smart contracts, dApps, and DeFi solutions. Its native token, TRX, powers transactions and incentivizes network participation. Tron's ecosystem focuses on low-cost and fast transactions. It aims to rival Ethereum, offering high throughput and a growing user base.
[Performance]
While bitcoin still shows slightly better YTD performance, Tron has outperformed the digital gold since March. Additionally, we're seeing the former correlation between the two assets turning into a de-correlation, while the divergence has recently escalated.
[Divergence]
The divergence between bitcoin and altcoins often signals broader altcoin seasons, as investor capital flows from bitcoin to higher-beta altcoins, seeking higher returns.
Historically, altseasons have followed bitcoin's consolidation, as seen in 2017 and 2021 cycles, when altcoins surged after bitcoin momentarily stabilized. If TRX can sustain its momentum and other altcoins follow, it could confirm an altseason, however, bitcoin's dominance above 50 percent may disrupt this shift.
[A Selective Altseason?]
According to Dune, the token supply has exceeded 43.4 million units, representing an ever-growing amount of options. One could argued that the market seems saturated.
As a contrast to previous altseason, I expect the upcoming one to be more selective: less correlation and only a certain cohort of winners.
As a summary, we might not see a broad altseason in 2025. Instead, a selected group of "premium" altcoins will likely outperform bitcoin.
Written by oinonen_t
