Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading steadily between $107,000 and $110,000 in recent days. However, the market is bracing for key events that could disrupt this calm — namely, the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes on July 9, and the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for July 30. The big question is: Will the Fed cut interest rates this summer? And how would that impact Bitcoin?
🔹 Markets Confident Fed Will Hold Rates in July
According to the CME FedWatch tool, over 95% of investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. This expectation has been reinforced by the June jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added 147,000 new jobs, signaling continued economic strength.
However, all eyes are now on inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released on July 15, could shift the narrative. According to Truflation, inflation in the U.S. has dropped from 2.27% to just 1.70% over the past two weeks. If CPI confirms this decline, pressure could mount on the Fed to lower rates sooner than expected.
🔹 Bitcoin Awaits a Catalyst — And It Might Be Coming
Should the Fed signal a move toward easing monetary policy, Bitcoin could experience a sharp rally. Most investors have not yet priced in this possibility, meaning a rate cut could act as a major catalyst.
Technical indicators suggest that if BTC breaks through the resistance level at $108,547, it could rise to a new all-time high of around $113,913 — a nearly 5% increase from current levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51, indicating a neutral-to-bullish sentiment. At the same time, the AO histogram has turned green, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening and the market is preparing for a breakout.
🔹 Conclusion: Inflation and the Fed Will Decide
If the CPI data shows continued inflation decline and the Fed signals a willingness to cut rates, this could be exactly what Bitcoin needs to surge. On the other hand, if inflation proves sticky and the Fed remains cautious, BTC could stay range-bound or even face short-term weakness.
July could prove pivotal — either marking a new all-time high, or an extension of uncertainty.
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