In the first half of 2025, the crypto derivatives market demonstrated surprising resilience, reaching new all-time highs despite a complex global macroeconomic context. The intensification of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over U.S. monetary policies did not halt the growth of the sector, which saw Bitcoin definitively establish itself as a macro-institutional asset. At the same time, Ethereum and the altcoins showed significant weaknesses, highlighting a structural divergence between BTC and the rest of the market.
This article is based on the data and analyses contained in the 2025 semi-annual report by CoinGlass on the crypto derivatives market, which offers a detailed overview of the main trends and future prospects.
Bitcoin: new all-time high and consolidated dominance
Bitcoin opened 2025 with an impressive run, surpassing $110,000 in January and reaching a new all-time high of $112,000 in May, before stabilizing around $107,000 in June. This performance was supported by growing institutional demand and record inflows into BTC spot ETF, which pushed the assets under management of the ETFs over $130 billion.
In parallel, the market dominance of BTC continued to strengthen, reaching 65% by the end of the second quarter — the highest level since 2021 — a clear signal of investors’ preference for an asset perceived as a safe haven in uncertain times.
Ethereum and altcoin: disappointing performance
If BTC has shone, Ethereum and the altcoins have instead disappointed expectations. ETH, despite having reached $3,700 in January, collapsed below $1,400 in April, with a partial recovery to $2,500 in June — still well below the highs at the beginning of the year. The weakness of ETH is confirmed by the collapse of the ETH/BTC ratio from 0.036 to 0.017, highlighting a decline in investor confidence.
The altcoins have experienced even more significant losses, with corrections exceeding 60–90% from the annual peaks. Solana, for example, has dropped from around $295 to $113 within three months. The entire segment has suffered from the lack of significant technological innovation and the growing risk aversion from investors.
Derivatives: open interest and liquidations at their peak
The mercato dei derivati crypto has recorded impressive numbers:
The global open interest (OI) of BTC derivatives has increased from approximately $60 billion to over $70 billion.
The OI of ETH derivatives has exceeded $30 billion.
The increase in OI has been driven primarily by institutional capital, with CME surpassing Binance for open interest on BTC futures, indicating a growing institutionalization of the market.
The liquidations nevertheless reminded investors of the sector’s volatility: two particularly significant events in February and April led to long liquidations for over $2 billion in a single day, releasing leverage excesses and promoting a healthier market structure.
Options and volatility: record open interest and low IV
The options market has also seen an unprecedented expansion, with open interest on BTC options reaching $49.3 billion at the end of May. Implied volatility (IV), on the other hand, has remained surprisingly low, indicating a consolidating market and a preference among investors for option selling strategies to generate yield.
Outlook for the second half of 2025
Looking to the future, the main catalysts will be:
Possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The approval of staking mechanisms for spot ETFs on Ethereum.
The evolution of geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin seems destined to maintain its status as an institutional asset, while Ethereum and the altcoins will need new drivers to reverse the bear trend.
“`html Conclusion “`
The first half of 2025 confirmed the adaptability of the crypto derivatives market, which reached new records even in a challenging macro context. The polarization between an increasingly institutional Bitcoin and a weakened altcoin sector marks a new phase of maturity for the entire ecosystem.
For investors, the keyword remains prudence, with constant monitoring of leverage and liquidity to best navigate the upcoming waves of volatility.
