Analysis of Declining Retail Exchange Inflows for Bitcoin:

* The first chart illustrates a significant decline in the Exchange Retail Inflow (30D Sum) for Bitcoin on Binance, which has now fallen back to levels last seen in early April 2025 — below the 12B mark.

* The last time retail inflows fell to this level in early April, it historically sparked a significant upward movement in Bitcoin's price throughout the rest of May 2025.

💡 Potential Reasons Behind Retail Inflow Decline:

* Reduced Retail Participation:

Following a period of heightened volatility, many small investors may have stepped back, awaiting clearer market signals or more stable price action.

* Shift to Long-Term Holding:

Retail holders could be increasingly moving coins to cold storage, indicating growing conviction and a desire to hold through potential market uncertainty.

Ethereum: 120,000 ETH withdrawn from Binance in a single day:

* The second chart shows that on July 4, 2025, Ethereum netflows recorded a massive withdrawal of over 120,000 ETH from Binance, marking the largest single-day ETH withdrawal since June 13, 2025.

* These significant outflows suggest investors are transferring ETH from Binance to personal wallets, signaling a reduced intention to sell in the near future.

* This likely indicates shrinking ETH reserves, which could amplify the effects of demand surges.

📈 Conclusion: Medium-Term Bullish Potential for BTC and ETH

The combined picture painted by both charts points to an increased probability of a medium-term price rise for both BTC and ETH.

Lower exchange inflows suggest reduced sell-side pressure, while large withdrawals indicate growing investor confidence and potential accumulation.

However, it is essential to note that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes; market dynamics, macroeconomic shifts, and new information can quickly change the trajectory. Investors should remain attentive to evolving data and manage risk appropriately.

Written by Amr Taha

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