Signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure in the past 4 weeks since the October 06 All Time High (ATH) and finds itself battling to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. That trend-line has been basically the Support of this Bull Cycle since March 2023, and acted as the most optimal long-term buy level.
Has the Bull Cycle ended?
However this Bull Cycle may have very well come to an end already as the 1W RSI has been long exhibiting the same kind of bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line), while also having completed the 4-year Cycle, that all previous Bull Cycles formed on their respective tops. This is a huge Bearish Divergence formation as it goes against the price's Higher Highs, indicating trend exhaustion.
As you can see that 1 RSI Lower Highs trend-line formed the November 2021, December 2017 and December 2013 Cycle Tops. Even worse, the current Lower Highs trend-line has been going on since the March 11 2024 High. If BTC closes a 1W candle below its 1W MA50, it has greater probabilities to confirm the start of the new Bear Cycle as all previous ones did on such break-out.
If yes, how much can it drop?
Now, it might not be too relevant at this time yet, but as far as how low the Bear Cycle can go to before it bottoms, there are three potential levels of interest where long-term investors can Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
The January 2015 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bottom. The last Bear Cycle has its bottom below the 1W MA200 and on the next Fib in line, the 0.5 level. The decline on each Bear Cycle that followed decelerated and was less than the previous (-86.70% to -84.19% to -77.22%).
If the new Bear Cycle has already started then the first level for a potential bottom is again the 0.382 Fib around $58000 where contact may potentially be made with the 1W MA200 as well. If it follows the previous Bear Cycle and bottoms on the 0.5 Fib, it will also be below the 1W MA200 around $45000. If on the other hand it goes a Fib level further, as the last two Cycles did, we are looking at the 0.618 Fib as a potential strong bottom candidate around $35000. That will also be a -70.76% decline from the Top, which will be -7% less than the previous Bear Cycle, which is also the difference that the 2022 Bear Cycle had from the 2018 one.
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Cardano (ADAUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up every since its December 26 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. That was also the time the 1W RSI has been at its lowest (hitting 30.00). The most recent bullish signal has been the 1W Golden Cross, its first ever.
Following this however, the price failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line of the pattern's previous Higher High and got rejected back to its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), which momentarily got broken on the October 10 flash crash. Still, the market instantly recovered and more importantly the 1W RSI found Support on its own 3-year Higher Lows Zone, which has been the most effective buy entry of the Bull Cycle.
As long as the price stays inside the Channel Up, the Bull Cycle remains alive. The confirmation of further upside, thus a new Bullish Leg, only comes technically if the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line again. If it does, we expect a Higher High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (every Higher High seems to decline, 1.786 to 1.5 Fib) at $1.900. A 1W candle closing below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), most likely confirms the new Bear Cycle.
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