野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

#SNDK Today I got SanDisk 1000 ~~~ 1071 sold too fast~~~😂

PCE inflation data has been released, which is slightly favorable for risk assets in the short term.

Official BEA data:

PCE price index m/m -0.1%

Core PCE m/m +0.1%

PCE y/y +3.7%

Core PCE y/y +3.3%

Core look at m/m: +0.1% is very low. Inflation momentum has clearly cooled this month, supporting U.S. Treasuries, rate-cut expectations, and improving risk appetite for BTC/U.S. equities in the short term.

But don’t just call it “inflation has won”: y/y at 3.7% / core at 3.3% is still clearly above the 2% target. So this is a “short-term slightly dovish positive,” not the kind of major positive that would make the Fed immediately pivot. Next, watch whether the U.S. dollar and the 2-year Treasury yield move down in sync; if they don’t, the market may not fully buy in.

Tonight at 8:30, the U.S. Q2 GDP initial reading and the June PCE will come out together.

The bond market is no longer waiting for FOMC comments. Long-end yields are pushing higher on their own, and the signals are much more hawkish than yesterday’s FOMC statement. SEB also put it very plainly: the committee’s patience is being consumed, and the risk outlook is skewing upward.

On the other hand, net weekly outflows from stablecoins are nearly $2.9 billion, and the fear index is sitting at 28. The market’s body language is already preparing for a downturn, but its mouth is still waiting for data to be stamped as confirmation.

Tonight, two numbers will be laid bare at the same time: growth and inflation. If GDP beats expectations, the entire bond market pricing will have to be redone; if it comes in below expectations, “recession” won’t just be background noise—it becomes the headline.

The hardest part isn’t that they’re wrong on direction. It’s the crowd whose positions were built too heavily before tonight.

The easiest place to misread this FOMC is to notice only that “rates didn’t move.”

Of course rates didn’t move—they’re still 3.50% to 3.75%. But the vote changed from unanimous approval last time to 9–3 this time; three members wanted an immediate 25-basis-point hike.

This isn’t automatically translating a single pause into “rate hikes right away.” But it’s also not a dovish ticket that you can casually use to celebrate.

The background the statement provides is actually quite straightforward: the economy is still expanding, investment and productivity are not weak; employment hasn’t clearly collapsed, and the unemployment rate hasn’t moved much; but inflation is still above the 2% target, and supply shocks—like energy—are still being worked into some portion of prices.

This combination is the hardest for the Fed.

If growth has already clearly cooled off, pausing—and even turning more dovish—can be explained easily; if inflation has already returned in a calm, well-behaved way to the vicinity of the target, you can also carry on with the narrative of rate cuts. Now, neither side has given a clear answer, and that’s when some in the committee start to not want to wait any longer.

Next, don’t just ask, “Will there be a hike next time?” A more useful focus is to see whether that contradiction is changing: is inflation continuing to stick, and can growth and employment still hold up?

Once the former gets worse while the latter remains steady, these three votes today won’t just be a side story. Conversely, if growth and employment noticeably cool, those three votes may not be able to push the whole committee higher either.

What the market fears most has never been that the answer sounds harsh—it’s that the old script of “it will naturally turn to easing” suddenly becomes difficult to perform.

No rate hike.
But the most eye-catching thing in this FOMC meeting isn’t that the interest rate remains at 3.5%—3.75%; it’s that the vote shifted from 12:0 last time to 9:3 this time.

Three people want to directly add 25 basis points.
The economic, employment, and inflation assessments in the statement are basically unchanged from the last time: the economy hasn’t fallen over, jobs haven’t deteriorated, and inflation hasn’t returned to 2%.

That’s a bit awkward.
To cut, there’s no reason; to raise, you still need the data to give you the nerve.

So don’t interpret “no rate hike” as good news. It’s more like the door wasn’t shut—but three people are already standing at the threshold.

SK Hynix's second-quarter report missed expectations, and shares are down about 10% today.

Yesterday it already fell about 8%, and today—after the earnings report—another big drop. Over two straight days, the market clearly has little patience for this set of results.

But turning back to crypto tells a different story: BTC is up 1.6% over the past 24 hours, ETH up 1.9%, and the total stablecoin supply is down by $1.55 billion over the same period.

Prices are recovering, but the money isn’t moving in alongside them. With tomorrow evening’s preliminary GDP figure not released yet, don’t rush to treat this red as the answer just yet.

Korea’s KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker today—two days in a row.

At the close, it fell 5.99%. Intraday it dropped by more than 12% at one point. After SK Hynix released its earnings, it immediately crashed: down 9.6% at the close, with a maximum intraday drop of 17%—its largest single-day decline ever. Samsung followed, down 5.2%.

Then guess what? Korea’s finance minister came out to apologize. The head of the Financial Supervisory Commission also apologized. Apologize for what?—a single-stock leveraged ETF.

Over in Hong Kong shares: the 2x leveraged long SK Hynix ETF fell 17.5% in a day, dropping as much as 28% intraday. The 2x leveraged long Samsung ETF fell 12%, with an intraday low of 18%.

The script for leveraged products has never changed: they’re great when prices rise, but when they fall it turns into a chain reaction of explosions. This time in Korea it was a single-stock leveraged ETF—an individual stock that missed expectations became, through leverage, an index-level liquidity event.

BTC this closing price is pretty weird~~~
Yesterday didn’t reach 642~~ and it poked in first; today it closed back up~~~

From the chart perspective~~~ this price range is awkward—neither up nor down~~~

Key resistance zone above: 64200-64500
Key support zone below: 63600-62800-62100

This pullback from the drop is a 2-day-line rebound~~~ currently the rebound has insufficient momentum~~~
There’s a possibility it will close higher~~~

The 2-day line will form a new candle after 10 hours~~ if it closes above 645~~~ then it can keep looking toward around 67000~~~

If it can’t break above 64500, then it will continue to dip back down~~~

Personally, I didn’t move my spot position~~ but my contract long positions had a stop loss triggered~~~
I’m looking for an opportunity to open back up again~~ the direction is still to go long~~~

The existing contract positions on hand are still long~~ it’s just that the position size is smaller than before~~
If today doesn’t break below 63600, then the market action would be considered fairly strong~~~
there’s hope to build up the 4-hour base~~~

Rationally speaking~~ here it’s stuck in the middle—going either way is basically a gamble~~~

When BTC broke below 63,000, everyone in the market was looking for doom—exclusively in crypto.

But when Asian chip stocks are getting hammered and the US market hasn’t even opened yet, this 24/7 BTC market gets used first to vent pressure. A lot of people always like to turn every down move into some exclusive crypto-side story; but when risk assets get settled together, it’s the thing that can be sold off at any moment.

The most awkward moment for crypto is when you think it has its own independent narrative, but others just treat it as a risk asset.

I came across that Strategy message today and suddenly thought: the hardest thing for this company to trade right now might not be BTC—it might be itself.

Cointelegraph wrote that it sold MSTR to raise $544.5 million, and then repurchased $25 million worth of STRC preferred shares. In the past, everyone viewed it with a simple formula: when BTC goes up, MSTR is an even more aggressive BTC. Now that formula isn’t so simple anymore—common stock, preferred stock, financing costs, buybacks: where each comes in, and what order they’re in, is changing how much upside common shareholders can still capture.

What treasury companies fear most isn’t that the coin drops—it’s the market starting to realize that what you’re holding isn’t just a pile of BTC, but an increasingly complex financing machine.

I only remember one thing this morning: last night, it wasn’t that crypto assets alone dropped—high-volatility assets as a whole were cut back by the market.

BlockBeats tracks Bit Data: SanDisk fell 12.92%, Micron fell 6.59%, and SK Hynix ADR fell 8.57%; MSTR fell 5.49%, and BMNR fell 10.70%. This morning, Korea’s KOSPI also reported another drop of 8%, triggering a circuit breaker.

I’m not in a hurry to conclude that any single piece of news is the sole trigger. The market action seems to be saying instead: AI, storage, and crypto-related treasury stocks—things that require high valuations and ongoing funding support—were taken first for deleveraging.

The FOMC is still ahead. A rebound is possible, but don’t write it off as the end of the risk just as soon as you catch your breath.

SanDisk (SNDK) fell 12.92%;
Western Digital (WDC) fell 8.62%;
Seagate Technology (STX) fell 6.89%;
Micron Technology (MU) fell about 6.59%
SK Hynix (SKHY) fell 8.57%。

SanDisk said last week that it might break to new lows~~~ and here it comes~~~
I didn’t hold onto the short position~~😂