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10年老韭菜,微博:我是链游博主小肝,推特:@mor_xiaogan,手续费八折邀请码(现货合约都有):BN18866,WEB3钱包手续费七折码:BN68686
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High-Frequency Trader
8.6 Years
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Posts
Portfolio
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Thanks for the CZ-style jersey from Binance 😂$BTC
Thanks for the CZ-style jersey from Binance 😂$BTC
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CODEX has officially launched the mobile feature to control CODEX on your computer. Just set up the connection on chatgpt on your phone. So, why are we still holding onto lobsters🦞? #OpenClaw🦞 $BTC
CODEX has officially launched the mobile feature to control CODEX on your computer.
Just set up the connection on chatgpt on your phone.
So,
why are we still holding onto lobsters🦞?
#OpenClaw🦞 $BTC
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Never been to the trade floor, is what everyone's saying true? $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
Never been to the trade floor, is what everyone's saying true? $BTC
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$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) I've set up various models domestically to aggregate daily news for me, pretty solid, pretty solid. Tokens are cheap, so I'm going all in.
$BTC
I've set up various models domestically to aggregate daily news for me, pretty solid, pretty solid. Tokens are cheap, so I'm going all in.
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Someone asked how the quant trading is going. Well, let me break it down: we're still in the process of opening multiple long positions for testing, and the uptrend looks solid. Next, we'll test the downtrend; optimizing that should be the final piece of the puzzle. But quant trading isn't a walk in the park—it's a world-class challenge, so we have to take it slow; there's no rushing this.
Someone asked how the quant trading is going.
Well, let me break it down: we're still in the process of opening multiple long positions for testing, and the uptrend looks solid. Next, we'll test the downtrend; optimizing that should be the final piece of the puzzle.
But quant trading isn't a walk in the park—it's a world-class challenge, so we have to take it slow; there's no rushing this.
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Let's see what gpt5.5 has to say Your skepticism is valid. I just weighted the "price drop has been deep enough" too high, and the "bear market time dimension" too low; this needs correction. A more reasonable assessment If we look at BTC's past cycles, bear markets typically don't end with just one drop, but rather: 1. First wave crash: plunging from the peak, creating panic lows 2. Midway big rebound: many think the bottom is confirmed 3. Prolonged decline/second bottom test: time drags on, confidence erodes 4. Bottom area oscillation: usually lasts for months or even longer So if the bear market has just started, claiming that 60000 is the big bottom is indeed overly optimistic. I've revised it to this 60000 looks more like the first wave bear market crash low, not necessarily the final bear market bottom. In other words: 60000 is the current strong support/stage low, but it shouldn't be directly equated to the ultimate bottom of the entire bear market. If the complete bear market structure follows, BTC will likely still experience: • A rebound to around 80000; • Another drop to 65000 / 60000; • If time isn't on our side and macro/liquidity continues to worsen, it might even break 60000; • Then flatline in a lower range for several months. Which scenario does it resemble more now? I'm leaning towards this description: BTC is in the early to mid-stage of a bear market B-wave rebound/intermediate repair phase, with 60000 as the first stage low, but it can't yet be confirmed as the ultimate bear market bottom. This is more rigorous than saying "60000 is probably the bottom." Key differences If it's a regular major adjustment: • 60000 holds; • A pullback occurs near 65000-70000; • Then breaks above 82842 again; • Then 60000 can be confirmed as the major bottom. If it's a real bear market: • The rebound ends near 82842; • Then breaks below 74900, 69000; • Tests 60000 again; • Even weekly charts breaking below 60000; • Then 60000 is just the A-wave low, not the bear market bottom. My revised conclusion You are right. From the time cycle perspective, claiming that a bottom area has appeared now is indeed unreasonable. Revised to 60000 is a stage low, not a confirmed major bottom. It currently resembles a rebound wave in a bear market, with risks of a second bottom test or even breaking 60000 ahead.
Let's see what gpt5.5 has to say

Your skepticism is valid.
I just weighted the "price drop has been deep enough" too high, and the "bear market time dimension" too low; this needs correction.

A more reasonable assessment

If we look at BTC's past cycles, bear markets typically don't end with just one drop, but rather:

1. First wave crash: plunging from the peak, creating panic lows
2. Midway big rebound: many think the bottom is confirmed
3. Prolonged decline/second bottom test: time drags on, confidence erodes
4. Bottom area oscillation: usually lasts for months or even longer

So if the bear market has just started, claiming that 60000 is the big bottom is indeed overly optimistic.

I've revised it to this

60000 looks more like the first wave bear market crash low, not necessarily the final bear market bottom.

In other words:

60000 is the current strong support/stage low, but it shouldn't be directly equated to the ultimate bottom of the entire bear market.

If the complete bear market structure follows, BTC will likely still experience:

• A rebound to around 80000;
• Another drop to 65000 / 60000;
• If time isn't on our side and macro/liquidity continues to worsen, it might even break 60000;
• Then flatline in a lower range for several months.

Which scenario does it resemble more now?

I'm leaning towards this description:

BTC is in the early to mid-stage of a bear market B-wave rebound/intermediate repair phase, with 60000 as the first stage low, but it can't yet be confirmed as the ultimate bear market bottom.

This is more rigorous than saying "60000 is probably the bottom."

Key differences

If it's a regular major adjustment:

• 60000 holds;
• A pullback occurs near 65000-70000;
• Then breaks above 82842 again;
• Then 60000 can be confirmed as the major bottom.

If it's a real bear market:

• The rebound ends near 82842;
• Then breaks below 74900, 69000;
• Tests 60000 again;
• Even weekly charts breaking below 60000;
• Then 60000 is just the A-wave low, not the bear market bottom.

My revised conclusion

You are right.
From the time cycle perspective, claiming that a bottom area has appeared now is indeed unreasonable.

Revised to

60000 is a stage low, not a confirmed major bottom. It currently resembles a rebound wave in a bear market, with risks of a second bottom test or even breaking 60000 ahead.
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The 8T hard drive I bought with mac back then has doubled in value. Now hard drives are up, RAM is up, GPUs are up, and even the domestic models are flying off the shelves without scripts for coding plans. The AI hype isn't cooling down at all; anyone who says it is must be living under a rock. 😳#AI
The 8T hard drive I bought with mac back then has doubled in value.
Now hard drives are up, RAM is up, GPUs are up, and even the domestic models are flying off the shelves without scripts for coding plans. The AI hype isn't cooling down at all; anyone who says it is must be living under a rock. 😳#AI
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While others see panic, we see opportunity. When others see opportunity, we just sit back and watch the show.$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
While others see panic, we see opportunity.
When others see opportunity, we just sit back and watch the show.$BTC
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So you're playing it like this, huh? Tomorrow is when we can trade Hong Kong stocks, and today you're just pumping it hard. Opened my account today and saw an 80k surge, something's off; turns out Hong Kong stocks are still open. Couldn’t we just have a nice dip instead? I only put in about 20% of my bag, and now I want to go full throttle on this! No rhyme or reason for your pump! Bring it down for me! $BTC
So you're playing it like this, huh?
Tomorrow is when we can trade Hong Kong stocks, and today you're just pumping it hard.
Opened my account today and saw an 80k surge, something's off; turns out Hong Kong stocks are still open.
Couldn’t we just have a nice dip instead?
I only put in about 20% of my bag, and now I want to go full throttle on this!
No rhyme or reason for your pump!
Bring it down for me! $BTC
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Things are heating up again.
Things are heating up again.
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Focusing on the principle of knowing and doing, even if it means taking a loss. Got a bit impatient with my long on Xiaomi, should've waited for it to break $30, but it's all good, my position isn't too heavy. $BTC BTC just dipped below $77K {future}(BTCUSDT)
Focusing on the principle of knowing and doing, even if it means taking a loss.
Got a bit impatient with my long on Xiaomi, should've waited for it to break $30, but it's all good, my position isn't too heavy. $BTC
BTC just dipped below $77K
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No need for a long spiel, just check the charts and make your own calls 🤔$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
No need for a long spiel, just check the charts and make your own calls 🤔$BTC
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gpt5.5 is really strong, it's already on the same level as claude opus4.7, and using gpt5.4 feels like a completely different model. gpt image 2, this raw image model is also unbeatable.
gpt5.5 is really strong, it's already on the same level as claude opus4.7, and using gpt5.4 feels like a completely different model.
gpt image 2, this raw image model is also unbeatable.
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Last night I saw the liquidity exodus on AVAX, which reminded me that I still had some funds in yield farming on OK. I withdrew them overnight. Although I felt there shouldn't be any issues, OK's risk management is usually solid, so I ultimately decided against leaving my assets in yield farming on-chain. The same goes for USDG; I'd rather take a smaller hit and keep my peace of mind. I withdrew in the morning, and by 3 PM, the funds were already in my wallet. 😏$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) Kelp DAO got hacked.
Last night I saw the liquidity exodus on AVAX, which reminded me that I still had some funds in yield farming on OK. I withdrew them overnight. Although I felt there shouldn't be any issues, OK's risk management is usually solid, so I ultimately decided against leaving my assets in yield farming on-chain. The same goes for USDG; I'd rather take a smaller hit and keep my peace of mind.
I withdrew in the morning, and by 3 PM, the funds were already in my wallet. 😏$BTC

Kelp DAO got hacked.
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