苏Qing

Post an update to record this: in the first two months, my lab front-loaded the trades and incurred a loss of 15k u, and after reflecting for two months, I summarized a lot of problems and incorrect trading strategies.

This time, with a 3,000 u principal, I went in again—still with a shanzhai coin. Tight stop-loss, big profits. The target is 30k u! You can see the position records in the copy-trading section.

You can never earn all the money in the market, but once your principal is gone, opportunities after that won’t be related to you anymore! I’m going to pin this post until the day I hit the target!

I took a look around midday: $ETH was near 2290, up a little over 1% in 24 hours. It climbed from 2245 to 2314 this morning, then pulled back. To the upside, I’m watching 2315 first; if it holds above that, then 2340. To the downside, 2260 first; if that breaks, then 2245. I won’t chase at this level—I’ll act when it reaches one of those price points.

I checked the market this morning, and it moved up a bit overnight: $BTC is around 78,500, up just over 1% in 24 hours; $ETH is around 2,290, up 1.1%, and it even touched 2,299. Today I’m watching two levels: for Bitcoin, 78,600 and 79,000 to the upside, and 78,100 to the downside; for Ethereum, 2,300 to the upside and 2,270 to the downside. I won’t chase on Monday—I’ll wait to see if it holds first.

Bottom line: I’m not chasing this weekend; I’ll just watch to see whether it can hold around 78,100. $BTC is near 77,900 now, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. It’s been range-bound between 77,400 and 78,300 during the day. First, I’m watching 78,300 and 78,700 above, and 77,400 and 77,100 below. $ETH is around 2,265, up 0.4%; I’m watching 2,278 and 2,300 above, and 2,245 and 2,200 below. Weekend trading volume is thin, so I won’t make a move unless it reaches those levels.

The afternoon session is getting interesting: $BTC bounced back to around 78100, up a little over 1% in 24 hours. $ETH also moved up to around 2270, gaining 1.5%—it just touched the 2272 level we talked about yesterday. My take: weekend volume is thin, so I’m not chasing at this level. Let’s see if it can hold above 78100/2272 first. What do you think: is this a false breakout over the weekend that’ll reverse on Monday, or has it really found its footing?

ETH is hovering around 2266 now. It dipped to a low of 2235 this morning and bounced back, but it still hasn't broken through the high of 2272. My view is to wait for it to hold above 2272 before looking for further upside. If it falls below 2235, step back and watch for now. Don't chase highs at a level like this; keeping your position size small will give you more peace of mind. $ETH

I checked the market this morning, and there wasn’t much movement overnight: $BTC is still hovering around 77,600, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours; $ETH is around 2,255, up 0.5%, a little stronger than Bitcoin. I’m watching two levels today: for Bitcoin, 78,100 to the upside and 77,100 to the downside; for Ethereum, 2,270 to the upside and 2,235 to the downside. I’m not chasing over the weekend—let’s see if it can hold first.

Conclusion first: I’m not chasing this weekend; I’ll just watch to see whether it can hold around 77,600. $BTC is now near 77,600, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours, and has been grinding between 76,300 and 78,100 during the day. To the upside, I’m watching 78,100 and 78,700 first; to the downside, 77,100 and 76,300. $ETH is around 2,250, up 0.7%; to the upside, I’m watching 2,262 and 2,300, and to the downside, 2,208 and 2,200. Weekend volume is thin, so I won’t make a move unless it reaches those levels.

The market is a bit mixed today: $BTC is still hovering around 77,300, down less than 1% over the past 24 hours, and it still hasn’t reclaimed 78,000; $ETH , meanwhile, is up slightly by 0.5% around 2,240, holding up a bit better than Bitcoin. My take: this small gain for Ether doesn’t count as a reversal yet. Until it gets back above 2,300, I’m treating it as a weak bounce and not chasing it. What do you think: is ETH leading the way toward stability, or is it just catching its breath after a steep drop, with more moves still to come in step with Bitcoin?

Took a look around midday, and Bitcoin still looks weak: $BTC is now around 77090. It failed to hold 77100 yesterday. The 24-hour high was 78670 and the low was 76150, so volatility is significant. This afternoon, I’m watching two levels: 78000 to the upside—let’s talk about a rebound only if it can hold above that; and 76200 to the downside—if it breaks below, I won’t rush to buy the dip. My rule: only watch how price reacts near these levels, and don’t chase this choppy stretch in between.

Nothing major happened overnight: $BTC was still hovering around 77400, up 0.4% over 24 hours; after yesterday’s 77100, it didn’t bounce very far. $ETH was around 2246, up 1.2% over 24 hours, and still hasn’t reclaimed 2300. Today I’m watching two levels: for Bitcoin, 78400 to the upside and 77100 to the downside; for Ether, 2300 to the upside and 2200 to the downside. Bottom line: I’m not chasing a weak rebound after a breakdown. I’ll reconsider if it gets back above 80000/2300.

Bottom line first: I won't chase the U.S. stock market at the open tonight. Nasdaq futures are down more than 2% premarket, and sentiment is weak. $BTC is now around 77,400, down 3.5% in 24 hours. It bounced to 78,400 during the day before pulling back. To the upside, watch 78,400 and 80,000; to the downside, watch 76,500. $ETH is around 2,236, down nearly 4%. It still hasn't reclaimed 2,300. To the upside, watch 2,300; to the downside, watch 2,200 and 2,170. Until a rebound after the breakdown can hold, I'll continue to watch more and trade less.

It’s been a pretty rough ride: $BTC fell below 80,000 last night, hit a low of 77,100 this morning, and has now bounced back to around 78,400. $ETH is similar: after losing 2,300, it’s now hovering around 2,245. My take: don’t rush to call a bounce after a breakdown a reversal. If we can’t reclaim 80,000/2,300, I’ll keep watching and stay mostly on the sidelines. What about you: would you trim a bit and take some profits on this bounce, or hold and wait to see if it gets back above 80,000?

I checked around midday, and ETH is still looking weak today: $ETH is around 2243 now, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours—more than BTC. It still hasn’t fully recovered from yesterday’s dip to 2219. This afternoon, I’m watching two levels: to the upside, 2300 first, then 2377 if it can hold; to the downside, 2200 first, then 2170 if that breaks. My rule: I’ll only watch how it reacts near these levels, and won’t chase the choppy price action in between.

A sharp drop overnight: $BTC broke below 80,000 and is now around 77,100, down nearly 5% in 24 hours; $ETH fell to 2,219, down 5.7% in 24 hours, and 2,300 didn’t hold. Today I’m watching two levels: for Bitcoin, 76,760 on the downside and 80,000 on the upside; for Ethereum, 2,200 on the downside and 2,300 on the upside. Bottom line: if it breaks down, I won’t buy the dip. I’ll wait for it to stabilize first.

Before the US market opens, here’s the bottom line: Nasdaq futures are down a little over 1% tonight. Alphabet’s earnings sent stocks tumbling, and crypto is under pressure too. BTC is now just above 80,000. It surged to 81,700 yesterday but couldn’t hold that level and slid back down. On the upside, I’d first watch to see if it can reclaim 81,700. On the downside, it must hold 80,000; if it breaks below, it could head toward 79,700. ETH is hovering around 2,310, with 2,360 as resistance and 2,300 as support. Only if it holds 2,300 can we talk about a rebound. $BTC $ETH

The afternoon session still looks weak: $BTC has fallen back below 80,000, down a little over 1% in 24 hours, giving back the entire move to 81,500 yesterday; $ETH is around 2,310, down about 1.5%, with 2,300 being tested again. My take: the market weakened after the FOMC decision, which suggests it hasn’t fully digested it yet. I’m not chasing at these levels; let’s see if 80,000/2,300 hold first. What do you think: is this a normal post-decision pullback, with a chance of getting back above 81,000, or is 80,000 really about to give way?

I took a quick look at midday, and ETH has been more volatile than BTC today: $ETH is around 2,323 now, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours. It hit a high of 2,365 today before pulling back, and even dipped to 2,290. This afternoon, I’m watching two levels: 2,365 to the upside—let’s see if it can hold above that; and 2,300 to the downside, with 2,290 in view if it breaks. The FOMC decision just came out, so I’m not chasing trades. I’ll reassess when it reaches those levels; until then, I’ll watch more and trade less.

The FOMC decision came out overnight, and the market surged before pulling back: $BTC is back near 80100 this morning, down less than 1% over 24 hours; it gave back the entire move up to 81500 yesterday. $ETH is around 2317, down 1.4%. I’m watching two levels today: for BTC, whether 80000 holds, with 81700 as the first level to watch on the upside; for ETH, 2300—if it holds, then 2374. Bottom line: the market weakened after the decision came out. Until a clear direction emerges, I won’t chase; I’ll watch more and trade less.

A quick look before the U.S. market opens: Nasdaq futures are up around 0.4% right now. Sentiment is fairly steady, but I’m not chasing. $BTC pulled back from around 81,500 this afternoon to around 80,700, basically flat over the past 24 hours. $ETH also slipped back to around 2,337. I’m sticking to my levels today: for BTC, I’m watching 81,800 above and 80,000 below; for ETH, 2,374 above and 2,300 below. The FOMC meeting is in the early hours, so volatility should be significant tonight. I’m staying put until prices reach my levels.