Tomorrow at 8:00, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the inflation situation. Through his remarks, investors will assess whether the Fed is leaning towards a "hawkish" or "dovish" policy. The decision on the Fed's next interest rate will be announced on Thursday, December 11, and the market is closely watching to predict whether the Fed will decide to raise, hold, or cut interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (serving from February 2018 to February 2026) is the head of the Fed, directly controlling short-term interest rates, and has a significant influence on the value of the US dollar more than any other individual. Investors and traders closely monitor his speeches as they often contain important hints about the direction of monetary policy in the future.
The Fed will officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on Monday, 1/12/2025. This means the Fed will stop selling bonds and will no longer withdraw liquidity from the market as before.
When QT ends, the pressure on cash flow will significantly decrease. System liquidity is likely to improve, interbank interest rates may stabilize more, and financial conditions generally become "easier". This is often a positive signal for asset markets — from stocks, real estate to crypto — as the monetary environment becomes less harsh and expectations for easing are gradually reinforced.
After the collapse of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's stock plummeted due to concerns that the company would have to sell BTC to pay off debt.
However, they have just announced a new credit metric, indicating that their financial situation remains very strong: even if BTC drops to 25,000 USD, their assets are still twice their liabilities.
Remember, they have gone through many downtrend seasons and they are still surviving.
MSCI is considering removing companies with a large portion of assets in Bitcoin from its index. MicroStrategy is in this group because the amount of BTC the company holds currently far exceeds its core business scale.
If removed from the index, funds that are required to sell according to MSCI's model could create selling pressure worth several billion USD, posing a risk to MSTR's stock price and making it harder for the company to raise capital in the future.
MicroStrategy holds approximately 649,870 BTC, with an average purchase price of ~74,433 USD/BTC.
This means that if Bitcoin drops to the 74.4k USD range, the entire amount of BTC the company holds will shift from a profitable state to breakeven or a loss on the books.
WHAT DOES MR. SAYLOR SAY???
Michael Saylor believes that MicroStrategy is not a fund holding Bitcoin, but rather a software company applying Bitcoin as a financial strategy.
He emphasized that MSTR continues to issue financial products based on BTC — something passive funds cannot do — and therefore MicroStrategy cannot be seen as a Bitcoin ETF.
Today's U.S. economic calendar focuses on the FOMC meeting minutes and labor data at 20:30, including NFP, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. These are important indicators that determine expectations for the Fed's interest rates. At the end of the day, the existing home sales data reflects the health of the U.S. real estate market.
20:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November) - Actual: - Forecast: 1.0, - Previous: -12.8
Ethereum launches Ethereum Interop Layer (EIL): A step forward in unifying Layer 2s
Ethereum has just announced the Ethereum Interop Layer (EIL), a new technology aimed at unifying all Layer 2s (L2) into a single cohesive network. This solution brings cross-chain interaction mechanisms directly into the wallet, eliminating the need to switch networks, use bridges, or track which chain tokens are on. EIL allows users to perform actions such as sending tokens, minting NFTs, or swapping on any L2 with just a single signature. The wallet will automatically handle the transaction routing and determine the appropriate chain without manual intervention. The experience of using Ethereum thus becomes seamless, similar to operating on a single chain.
🇯🇵 JAPAN PREPARES TO UNLEASH A STIMULUS PACKAGE OF 110 BILLION USD
This package aims to support citizens facing rising costs and to invest in growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors. Measures include income tax cuts, fuel tax reductions, subsidies for utilities, and food assistance. The government plans to pass this on 21/11.
THE UNITED STATES IS THE LEADER IN SUPPORTING CITIZENS AND A SERIES OF OTHER CAMPAIGNS, DISTRIBUTING MONEY, PRINTING MONEY, AND OTHER COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD UNDERSTAND.
Fear & Greed Index - Extremely Fearful Index. That's right, everything is becoming very strange, like you are falling into a pit, and you should understand that the pit is the lowest point and you can only go up, not down anymore.
So answer one question: Do you think crypto will disappear completely?
If you can answer this question, then you will know what to do now. 👍
But you should also be cautious if the investment strategy is not appropriate.
The liquidity zone has been fully taken, the next may be a strong bullish wave. The fear index reaching a low level below 25 points is often a bottom zone.
Just wrapped a great panel on the future of stablecoins at Singapore Fintech Festival.
Here’s my key takeaway, there’s a lot of good work happening, with players within and beyond crypto investing heavily in this space. But there’s still room to broaden use cases so even more people can benefit.
🚨 Translation: Our blockchain deposit account easily connects with the banking system and also communicates smoothly with public blockchains thanks to Chainlink and other technologies.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at a low level — 23 points. In the past, whenever this index dropped below 30 points, it was often the bottom of the price cycle. Therefore, the period below 30 points can be considered an appropriate time to start buying, and to continue buying steadily until the index rises above 30 points. Conversely, the 70-point range is usually the time to consider taking profits.
This index rarely 'lies', as it reflects market sentiment quite accurately at each moment.
However, fear is always a powerful and longer-lasting emotion. In periods of 'extreme fear', most investors panic sell, while very few have the courage to buy — possibly due to a lack of capital or loss of confidence. Therefore, psychological factors still play an extremely important role:
👉 Do not buy too much at once, buy steadily, and stop when you achieve the set target.