Steven_Research

THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR SUPPORT🙇‍♂️

Steven is fortunate to be featured in the top 14 independent Researchers of Blockchain 100 2025 organized by @binance and voted by the community, in this top, Vietnam has 3 individuals included

🔸Trader: @Trading Insight_DN

🔸Independent researcher: @Steven_Research

🔸Rising star: @LinhCrypto

- Thank you to the bosses on X, the Vietnamese crypto communities for their support

- Thanks to my brothers and sisters in the team and in the SR Research community

- Thank you to my brothers and sisters on X, on Binance Square for your kindness and support

*Airdrop of shirts has been conducted on my channel @call_me_kyo, the results are available

- To my brothers and sisters who have supported, if there’s a chance, I would love to invite you all for coffee

- Hope that next year Vietnam will have more faces in this top

Once again, thank you all!🙏

The Federal Reserve just injected $5.2 billion into the U.S. Banking System through overnight repurchase agreements. This is the 6th largest liquidity injection since Covid and exceeds even the peak of the Dot Com bubble.

Many sources suggest that these activities indicate that system liquidity is tighter than expected, especially as bank reserves have fallen to a 4-year low.

The average price of Bitcoin Spot ETFs is around $83K, and the STH cost basis is around $105K

- The drop to $80K of $BTC at the end of November was the first time the BTC price fell below the Spot ETF price since November 2024 - At that time, the price range was $60K

=> If BTC loses this $83K mark, we may witness a sell-off to the $70K range similar to the time when the ETF was first introduced

- Additionally, the cost basis of short-term investors (Short-Term Holders - STH) is at $105,400, and Bitcoin has traded below this level for nearly the past two months.

- In previous drops, the price range could sustain below the STH cost basis for about 2-4 months; if this is currently a correction, then the past two months are still similar

- The current issue of $BTC is new funds; the Realized Cap Impulse is testing an important area, meaning it is currently a zone to see if there is new supporting cash flow to end the correction or if there will be a new sell-off

=> During this phase, if it drops to the $70K range, it will be a good accumulation point for $BTC in the long term, but to recover, we need to wait for signs of cash flow

- What do you think?

FROM BUILDER TO "UP BO" $MOVE AND NEW WALK NYX GROUP

Rushi Manche - a talent but like many people with a project build - drop out - make money to set up a fund in crypto. Specifically as follows:

1. Starting profile is very beautiful

- Rushi Manche's family does charity in India, he has excellent academic achievements, SAT almost perfect, once dropped out early to pursue crypto full time

2. Once a real builder of Aptos 2022

- Rushi Manche was a Smart contract developer in the Aptos system, once wrote Move for Kairos Exchange, Mira Finance, he is deeply interested in distributed systems, modular blockchain => at this point he is a passionate builder

3. Movement Labs 2022–2024

- He co-founded Movement Labs with Cooper Scanlon, Raised >40 million USD (pre-seed + Series A), Positioning MOVE as the Move ecosystem on Ethereum

- When building, Move was also criticized by Aptos for copying Aptos' language, in addition, the project was quite vague about the development direction, sometimes building L2 and then including L1, leading to never getting to mainnet

4. Scandal points of Movement

- Internal memo shows market making deal with Web3Port & Rentech, helping Market maker control ~66M MOVE, pushing tokens directly into liquidity

- When MOVE launched, the wallet related to Web3Port sold ~66M MOVE (~38 million USD), leading to Binance reporting insider selling from the market maker and banning Web3Port, Coinbase stopped trading token $MOVE

- Sushi was suspended from duty on 30/04/2025 and fired on 07/05/2025 during the governance restructuring

- In July 2025, Rushi was sued in Delaware, the trial ended without a public verdict => Likely settled

5. Currently 12/2025 launching Nyx Group

- He established Nyx Group, announcing a scale of up to 100 million USD, with the role of supporting the launch of tokens and liquidity

MARKET DECLINE ON SATURDAY DUE TO CONCERNS FROM BOJ

Last Saturday, the market declined across the board: Bitcoin – Ethereum – Nasdaq – Russell 2000 all fell in one wave. This is not just a crypto issue, but a macroeconomic reaction to BOJ (Bank of Japan).

1. BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75% at the December meeting

- A Reuters poll shows that 90% of economists predict BOJ will raise interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% at the meeting on December 18-19, 2025, which is the first meeting since BOJ ended its ultra-loose monetary policy.

=> After Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly signaled the possibility of raising interest rates, the market has been pricing in

2. Impact on financial markets

- BOJ interest rates rising increases capital costs with the Yen, affecting global liquidity; Japan is shifting from its role of providing cheap money to the world to prioritizing domestic stability, ending a decades-long era of cheap money. And immediately the market prices in the news:

- Nasdaq and Russell 2000 dropped first
- $BTC and $ETH fell in the same wave
- Altcoin weaker, reacting more strongly

3. Previous interest rate hikes by BOJ - how did the market react?

- 19/03/2024 BOJ ends negative interest rates $BTC drops ~23%

- 31/07/2024 next interest rate hike BTC drops ~26%

- 24/01/2025 another hike early 2025 BTC drops ~31%

=> These drops may be due to various other factors from the FED and other elements, possibly just coincidental

4. What scenarios for the upcoming official BOJ meeting?

- BOJ raises interest rates as expected

- BOJ raises interest rates and signals continued tightening in 2026

- BOJ delays or softens more than expected, exceeding expectations

- What do you think?

MEMECOINS IN GENERAL AND MEMES ON $SOL ALMOST "DIED"

1) The dominance of memecoins is at its lowest point in 2 years

- The market capitalization ratio of memecoins within the entire altcoin market has fallen to a historical low. Each time the dominance reaches this level, the market enters a reset phase: liquidity disappears, new buying power is zero, and only weak technical rebounds remain.

- This crash is even heavier because memecoins have run too hot from late 2023 to mid-2024.

2) The Solana network also plummeted along with memecoins

- The performance of the Solana network compared to $BTC is currently at a 2-year low and continues to slide. The capital that sustained Sol throughout 2024 - especially speculative capital in the form of meme-farming - has been completely withdrawn.

- Without liquidity premium, no money rotation, the chart of the Sol ecosystem looks like a downward slope without brakes.

3) The Memecoin Index has diverged significantly from BTC, becoming increasingly weak

- BTC rebounding is a BTC issue. Memecoins no longer react.

- Sideways movement also does not elicit a response. Even if BTC remains still, memecoins continue to fall.

=\u003e This is a characteristic of the "no bid" market: every rebound is immediately sold off, and there are no buyers left.

THE $10B HYPERUNIT WHALE IS NOW LONG $445M OF $ETH

The Hyperunit Whale who made $200M off the largest liquidation event in crypto ever - the 10/10 market crash, is now long over $400M of $ETH .

He’s been buying for the past 4 days, and is currently break-even on his position.

Fidelity reports that the price range of $85.5K is a strong liquidity support area, with confirmation that around 430,000 $BTC has been absorbed around this area.

With the result of interest rate cuts but a rather "hawkish" tone in last night's FOMC meeting, Bitcoin is adjusting, and according to Fidelity, this area could serve as a strong support.

A whale has exchanged 1,466 $BTC ($132M now) for 43,649 $ETH ($139M now) over the past 16 days.

ETH IS BEING WITHDRAWN FROM THE EXCHANGE - ARE SHARK WALLETS ACCUMULATING?

- Whales & sharks (wallets with 100–100k ETH) have accumulated ~934,240 $ETH (~3.15 billion USD) in just 3 weeks.

- Meanwhile, retail investors have net sold ~1,041 $ETH in the most recent week

- Simultaneously, ETH exchange reserves across all platforms are declining to around ~16.6 million ETH, the lowest in many years

- The amount of ETH on exchanges is now only 8.7%, the lowest level since 2015

- The supply of staked ETH remains high, reaching 28.8% of the total supply

=> The market is in a state of mild supply squeeze, with very thin liquidity, so price movements may react quite strongly

Trump Billionaires Club – what is this game for $TRUMP ?

Last night, the meme coin from Trump Official launched an early registration for the Trump Billionaires Club game.

- This is a mobile + web game directly linked to the TRUMP memecoin. On the surface, it is a P2E game, but it may be a narrative move to keep attention on the TRUMP ecosystem after a drop of ~87% from its peak.

1. Nature of the product

- The game is developed by Freedom45Games LLC, using images of Donald Trump through a commercial license - not a product of the Trump Organization.

- Notably, the Web3 infrastructure uses OpenLoot, onboarding does not require a separate wallet, clearly targeting Web2 users more than pure crypto gamers.

=> This is not a game to compete in gameplay quality, but a game to create additional use cases for $TRUMP .

2. Gameplay & economic mechanism

- The core loop is quite simple: roll the dice, buy businesses, invest, climb the leaderboard. Monopoly + idle style, with a colorful “Trump billionaire lifestyle.”

- $TRUMP is the central currency for all actions in the game. NFTs are only cosmetic + light buffs, traded on OpenLoot. P2E here does not come from playing skill, but from: leaderboard, referral, and holding tokens.

3. Pre-register – the most important part

- All incentives are designed to attract users and create short-term demand for TRUMP.

=> The reward is ~1 million USD converted to $TRUMP , airdropped gradually over 12 weeks. Clearly, this is a disguised marketing campaign through a game, not “play to earn.”

4. Personal perspective

- For users, this is entertainment; lightly farming airdrops is okay, and the TRUMP token may benefit when the game launches because it requires token deposits into the game to enjoy benefits, but in the long term, it may just create liquidity for the Trump team to release tokens.

PREDICTION HAS MATURED MORE THAN BEFORE

Previously, the Prediction Market was considered a gambling market, but now it is officially licensed with Kalshi and Polymarket, along with the growth of the number of users and volume.

- Last month, over 13 billion USD was traded – three times higher than the peak volume of the US 2024 election.

- Previously, the prediction market almost always followed a pattern of sharply increasing volume as the presidential election approached, followed by a rapid decrease in liquidity when the event ended.

- Currently, volume no longer revolves around a single event; Polymarket, Kalshi, and OPINION have become the main sources of liquidity, maintaining consistent activity after the election, with a wide variety of voting activities ranging from sports to culture,...

- CNN has announced the inclusion of odds from Kalshi in news broadcasts, indicating a shift in information approach.

- Currently, the main volume is at @Polymarket, @Kalshi, and @opinionlabsxyz, followed by smaller projects like @trylimitless or @footballdotfun,...

- Thus, it is clear that the prediction market race is heating up among organizations, with various chains eager to secure their share; this represents a PMF for the market after Perp Dex.

*Note: This article aims to provide information on the metrics of official applications in the US and does not endorse any form of gambling!

BlackRock files for Ethereum staking ETF - How is it different from Grayscale's ETP Staking?

If you remember, Grayscale has had the $ETH ETP Staking product since early October 2025, and when that news came out, it was also right at the ETH chart peak (chart image)

- In fact, Grayscale's ETP ETH Staking product is quite unattractive to users, as there is a management fee from Grayscale of about 2.5%. Moreover, there are also staking/validator fees (hidden in the structure): about 0.2-0.4%

=> This means the cost for users of this ETP Staking is around 2.7-3% per year, while the Gross staking yield of Ethereum is around 3.0 – 4.0% per year (even below 3% as it currently is at 2.72%)

=> This means the staking profit is very low with ETHE at approximately 0.3 – 1.0% per year, and there were periods where it was almost = 0

*How is BlackRock's Ethereum staking ETF different?

- BlackRock has submitted Form S-1 for the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF to the SEC on 05/12/2025

- The review time for Form S-1 is about 30-45 days, after which the 19b-4 filing will be completed for listing in about a maximum of 240 days (8 months), with staking ETFs potentially facing stricter regulations, making it harder to list as quickly as current Altcoin ETFs (like $XRP , $SOL ,...)

=> So the fastest that the ETH Staking ETF could be listed is around the end of Q2/2026 and the latest by the end of 2026

- The expectation is that BlackRock's Staking ETF will be a more accessible product than Grayscale, with a management fee of only about 0.5%, making investor profits higher => much more attractive

- Therefore, this information is currently a positive news, but in the short term, it won't generate any immediate cash flow for ETH; we hope for a longer-term future

- What are your thoughts?

12 UPGRADES OF ETHEREUM FUSAKA - WHAT ARE THE CURRENT PRICING MODELS $ETH ?

FUSAKA is the latest major upgrade of ETH, signifying the development of the Ethereum network, but the ETH pricing models show considerable differentiation.

1. Paving the way for L2 scaling while maintaining L1, increasing throughput without compromising stability.

- EIP-7594 helps scale L2 without making nodes heavy.
- EIP-7892 allows for gradual increases in blob capacity after Fusaka.
- EIP-7918 prevents blobs from being too cheap.
- EIP-7935 increases the default block gas limit - blocks can handle more transactions/settlements.
- EIP-7825 limits gas for each transaction.
- EIP-7934 restricts block size by byte.
- EIP-7823, EIP-7883 prevent crypto-heavy transactions from clogging the CPU.
- EIP-7642 nodes sync faster and are lighter.
- EIP-7951 allows wallets to log in using Face ID/fingerprint.
- EIP-7939 computes more efficiently and cheaply, especially for ZK & cryptography.
- EIP-7917 predicts validators proposing blocks, supporting MEV, market infrastructure, and pre-confirmation.

2. The pricing models - is the current $ETH undervalued?

- Metcalfe’s Law - The network value is proportional to the number of active users/nodes, reflecting L2 growth - pricing $ETH at $9.5K-$9.8K.

- DCF Staking Yield - Discounted cash flow valuation from staking yield; accounting for scarcity from burn - price from $8.9K-$9.0K.

- Validator Economics Valuation based on validator economics and node costs, with ETH priced around $6.9K.

- Layer-2 Framework values L2 TVL as a "super-ecosystem"; Fusaka increases this value, with a price of ~ $4.6K.

- Revenue Yield is currently overvalued, annual revenue/staking yield suggests ETH is priced at $1.2K.

- P/E Ratio calculated as price/profit ratio shows ETH at only $899.

= > Combining all, ETH is currently valued at $4.9K - meaning it could rise by another 57.8% compared to the current price of $3.1K.

ZKsync officially terminates ZKsync Lite in 2026

Matter Labs $ZK announces that it will stop supporting ZKsync Lite in 2026. This is the first zk-rollup version launched since 2020, a historical experiment, not an architecture for the long term.

1. Why stop?

- Old architecture, not suitable:
- Account abstraction limitations
- Difficult to scale smart contracts

2. The current direction has completely shifted to:

- ZKsync Era
- zkStack (multi-chain zk ecosystem)

3. Points to note:

- The sunset will not affect Era or zkStack
- The roadmap for asset migration will be announced in 2025
- Users have more than 1 year to prepare

4. My perspective:

- This is the right decision. To move quickly with zkStack, it is necessary to cut off legacy. Keeping Lite at this time only slows down the ecosystem.

ETH is gradually recovering, but is it time for FOMO?

1. Price structure: holding the base, but not yet reclaiming the trend

- $ETH was rejected quite accurately at the Golden Pocket (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci) – this is a strong supply area, reflecting that selling pressure is still significant. The positive point is that the price is still holding above the Bull Market Support Band on the daily frame, meaning the medium to long-term bullish structure has not been broken.

2. MVRV Long/Short: short-term selling pressure still hangs in the air

- The MVRV Long/Short difference has returned to a neutral zone. This indicates:

- Short-term holders (STH) are starting to realize profits

- And this group tends to sell very quickly when they see signs of hesitation

3. Squeeze Momentum: energy is being compressed

- The squeeze indicator shows that volatility is tightening, and the histogram is gradually moving towards a positive direction. This often happens before a strong run.

- Important note: this indicator signals the timing, not the direction. When it breaks, the market will move quickly, but whether it goes up or down depends on whether the buyers can reclaim the key level.

4. ETH/BTC breaks the downtrend: a cyclical signal

- The point I value the most is that ETH/BTC has broken the downtrend.

5. Realistic scenarios to prepare for

- Short-term: ETH is likely to still drift around 3,000. If STH continues to take profits, the possibility of a drop to 2.75k – 2.8k could definitely happen.

- ETH is showing relative strength compared to BTC. But at this moment, there is no confirmation to take the risk.

- Long-term holders can still accumulate in this area.

The psychology of retail investors $BTC is fluctuating strongly, and each time it decreases into the Fear Zone, it has accurately predicted a bounce, according to Santiment.

I’m a big fan of you for a long time 🫡 @CZ

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #BTCVSGOLD

If you pay attention, you will see that Binance and CZ have supported Aster for quite some time, around April 2025.

After that, Aster received a lot of support from BNB, along with many incentive programs on it, and finally, a successful TGE with impressive growth.

Currently, with the perpdex niche, Lighter is experiencing high volume due to no fees and waiting for TGE, but Aster is already somewhere competing for the top with Hyperliquid; the market may shift to another big trend.

Yesterday, both Yzi Labs and CZ mentioned Prediction with the project @predictdotfun being built to ride the wave with Polymarket (expected TGE Q1/2026).

I am closely monitoring and have already signed up for the waitlist; you should also pay attention to this project!