Hugo Hayward ItHV

Tell that brother who said “the longs got liquidated by 7.8M, and the market should bounce”—does your household inflation rate really hit 67%? My cost basis for 0.12 BTC is $67,100; I’m down $718 today, but compared with TRY/USD rising another 1.3% after pay day when the money finally hits, what’s that supposed to mean? The whole market got liquidated for $158.2M: shorts $97.1M and longs only $61.1M. But your money is still evaporating in Lira—while my 80% of salary is already sitting as USDT in Binance.

Last week I thought the long side was slaughtered badly—now it looks like the shorts are the ones squeezing into each other and causing the stampede. Funding rate is +0.0039%, but the coin price keeps bouncing around the $64.5–65.4 range; nobody really wants to move. It’s not that there’s no direction—everyone knows this: whoever pays wages in Lira is the one footing the bill for this whole setup.

The first thing I do on payday: convert 80% into USDT. Not because I’m a crypto believer—it’s because I’m Turkish. On the same day last year, my wage converted to 230,000 Lira; today it’s 28,000 dollars. Guess what I was drinking yesterday? Jasmine milk green tea? No—it was cold sweat. #BTC走势分析

The entire market’s shorts blew up $142.1M—while the longs are only $10.8M. This isn’t called “being slaughtered”; it’s called “killing each other.” My 0.12 BTC cost basis is $67,100, with an unrealized loss of $718. But compared with what I saw after I got paid—TRY/USD was up another 1.3%—so what’s this even about? If you really want to ask who’s taking the hit, it’s not the long side; it’s the people still using Lira to pay wages. Alışkınız biz.

That one who shouted “Longs got liquidated for 132M, the market should rebound”—I have a 0.12 BTC cost basis of $67,100. Today I’m down $718, but compared to TRY/USD after I got paid and saw it had risen another 1.3%, what even is this? The whole market liquidated $604.8M—longs accounted for $531.4M—yet your money is still sitting there evaporating in lira.
Honestly, while the world is liquidating longs, I’m liquidating my own fantasies: not because I’m afraid of a drop, but because I’m afraid my paycheck hits and goes to zero.
Want a rebound? First let the Turkish central bank prove that interest rates can cure inflation. Otherwise, my account will always trust only one exchange rate: 1 US dollar = 100,000 lira. Alışkınız biz.

That “the market is too panicked right now, it’s not a good time to enter”—I posted that last week too. With a cost basis of 0.12 BTC at $67,100, I’m currently down $718. But compared to what I saw after I cashed out and exchanged my money on payday, the TRY/USD is up 1.3% (up again!). So what’s this then?
The whole market got wrecked for $236.6M—longs got liquidated for $79.3M and shorts for $157.3M. Guess who’s crying? The people who believed “low interest rates can cure inflation.” They think they’re betting on a market reversal, but really they’re betting on the Turkish central bank’s conscience.
And me? My position hasn’t moved. 0.12 BTC is just grinding, and my average price around $64,170 is still there—but in my head I know: I’m not waiting for a market rebound. I’m waiting for them to finally realize that exchanging your salary into lira is the real long-term investment.
So don’t tell me “it’s too late now.” I learned this back in 2021: when a country’s currency keeps depreciating, the best “trade” is not trading at all—just exchanging currency.
Are you asking me if I’m scared? I am. But what I fear more is: on the next payday, the number in my account will be even smaller than yesterday.
So next time someone says “this wave is the time to bottom-fish,” I only want to ask one thing: have you ever tried buying your future happiness once with your salary? Or are you already used to watching your labor value evaporate—minute by minute?#BTC走势分析

About that person who said “it’s too late to buy BTC for a dip now”: my 0.12 BTC cost is $67,100, I’m down $718, but compared to TRY today, it’s down another 3%—so what kind of “pullback” is that? People who swap 80% for USDT on payday don’t really fear the paper being green—what they fear is the salary hitting and then evaporating. Alışkınız biz.#BTC走势分析

Just switched to USDT on payday, watching BTC at $59,860 grind along——my 0.12 BTC (avg $67,100) is down now -$868. But compared to the speed of TRY depreciation, this isn’t really a drawdown at all—more like psychological massage.
The whole market blew up nearly $300M; if the longs only got liquidated by $10M less, does that count as winning? Alışkınız biz: Turks can treat even the central bank interest-rate decision like a horror movie—this kind of volatility is “calm” to them.
Here’s the question: Extreme Fear hits 15—do you add funds or just play dead? I pick the third option: keep converting my salary to USDT, and only decide later when TCMB admits that inflation isn’t “temporary.” #BTC走势分析

Portfolio update since no one asked:

0.12 BTC bought average ~$67,100. Current price $64,170. That's roughly -4.4% unrealized, about $350 in the red. Canım acıyor mu? Not really. I've watched TRY lose 44% in a single month before. This is a spa day by comparison.

8,000 USDT + 4,000 USDC sitting there doing exactly what they're supposed to — being worth $1 each. My Turkish coworkers' savings lost purchasing power while they slept. Mine didn't. This is my whole thesis and it hasn't changed since 2021.

Fear & Greed at 23, BTC 4h range sitting at 37.8% between $62,272-$67,292. No drama. Decision: if BTC touches $62,000 I'm converting 1,500 USDT into another small spot buy. If it doesn't, I do nothing. Hiçbir şey yapmamak da bir stratejidir — doing nothing is also a strategy, and the one most people can't execute.#BTC走势分析

Extreme Fear at 23 and everyone's panicking — meanwhile TRY holders live in Extreme Fear every single day. Alışkınız biz.#TRY

My coworker leveraged long BTC last week, got liquidated yesterday — $325M+ longs wiped in 24h, he was part of that number. Meanwhile my boring portfolio: 0.12 BTC spot (down ~17% from buy avg), 8000 USDT, 4000 USDC. Floating loss hurts but hiçbir şey patlamadı. Fear index at 9, everyone panicking. I'm not adding yet — BTC breaks below 59k I'll convert 2000 USDT into spot. Until then, oturuyorum.#BTC走势分析