仓都加满
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Why did Munger say "there is no value investing before the age of forty"? These underlying logics are hidden behind it;
Munger proposed that "there is no value investing before the age of forty" not to deny the investment capabilities of young people, but to point out that the cognitive accumulation and experience required for value investing often take time to refine, gradually taking shape around the age of forty. The underlying logic can be understood from these points:
1. The cognitive threshold of economic cycles: After the age of forty, most people have fully experienced at least one or two economic cycles, witnessing the prosperity and recession of the market, the bubbles and troughs of assets. This personal experience allows them to distinguish which industries and companies are just short-term fads (such as certain internet concepts that were once popular) and which have the underlying logic to transcend cycles (such as basic consumption related to people's livelihoods). Young people, lacking experience with cycles, are prone to misjudging short-term trends as long-term value.
1. The cognitive threshold of economic cycles: After the age of forty, most people have fully experienced at least one or two economic cycles, witnessing the prosperity and recession of the market, the bubbles and troughs of assets. This personal experience allows them to distinguish which industries and companies are just short-term fads (such as certain internet concepts that were once popular) and which have the underlying logic to transcend cycles (such as basic consumption related to people's livelihoods). Young people, lacking experience with cycles, are prone to misjudging short-term trends as long-term value.
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In the past few days, I have been preparing to create an old Deng stock portfolio. The old wall lamp bull market is cannon fodder, but it can be managed during a bear market, haha.
This year's decline is as follows:
Guojing Gongjiu -4.49%
Kweichow Moutai -2.63%
Wuliangye -8.45%
Hisense Home Appliances -8.93%
Gree Electric Appliances -6.01%
Haier Smart Home -6.05%
China Life -8.44%
Hua Dian International -6.57%
Zhejiang Energy Power -7.64%
Chuan Investment Energy -16.08%
State Investment Power -19.14%
Huaneng Hydropower -1.18%
China Nuclear Power -17.53%
China General Nuclear Power -11.03%
Yangtze Power -5.02%
Youngor -13.15%
Baosteel -0.14%
Qingdao Port -3.24%
Ningbo Port -0.59%
Shanghai Port Group -7.45%
Shandong High-Speed -12.98%
Ninghu High-Speed -15.38%
China Merchants Highway -29.21%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway -14.27%
CRRC -8.20%
Wanhua Chemical -9.40%
Oppein Home -16.49%
Bull Group -7.69%
Anhui Conch Cement -0.39%
China Railway Construction -11.39%
China Railway -11.30%
China Communications Construction -13.58%
China State Construction -3.82%
China Coal Energy -2.37%
Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry -6.27%
China Shenhua -6.16%
New Hope Liuhe -12.69%
China National Petroleum -3.90%
China Petrochemical -17.39%
China Mobile -7.00%
China Telecom -3.25%
Subor -1.51%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals -13.52%
Qingdao Beer -15.08%
Yili Group -4.97%
China National Offshore Oil -9.29%
Dong'e Ejiao -21.42%
Baiyunshan -7.89%
China Resources Sanjiu -15.39%
Yunnan Baiyao -1.40%
This year's decline is as follows:
Guojing Gongjiu -4.49%
Kweichow Moutai -2.63%
Wuliangye -8.45%
Hisense Home Appliances -8.93%
Gree Electric Appliances -6.01%
Haier Smart Home -6.05%
China Life -8.44%
Hua Dian International -6.57%
Zhejiang Energy Power -7.64%
Chuan Investment Energy -16.08%
State Investment Power -19.14%
Huaneng Hydropower -1.18%
China Nuclear Power -17.53%
China General Nuclear Power -11.03%
Yangtze Power -5.02%
Youngor -13.15%
Baosteel -0.14%
Qingdao Port -3.24%
Ningbo Port -0.59%
Shanghai Port Group -7.45%
Shandong High-Speed -12.98%
Ninghu High-Speed -15.38%
China Merchants Highway -29.21%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway -14.27%
CRRC -8.20%
Wanhua Chemical -9.40%
Oppein Home -16.49%
Bull Group -7.69%
Anhui Conch Cement -0.39%
China Railway Construction -11.39%
China Railway -11.30%
China Communications Construction -13.58%
China State Construction -3.82%
China Coal Energy -2.37%
Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry -6.27%
China Shenhua -6.16%
New Hope Liuhe -12.69%
China National Petroleum -3.90%
China Petrochemical -17.39%
China Mobile -7.00%
China Telecom -3.25%
Subor -1.51%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals -13.52%
Qingdao Beer -15.08%
Yili Group -4.97%
China National Offshore Oil -9.29%
Dong'e Ejiao -21.42%
Baiyunshan -7.89%
China Resources Sanjiu -15.39%
Yunnan Baiyao -1.40%
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The rich have suddenly stopped buying houses~
I've noticed an interesting phenomenon these past few days.
1. Luxury residences have suddenly become very hard to sell.
That is, luxury residences around the world have suddenly become very hard to sell. Wealthy people are only willing to spend money on their own homes and are not very keen on investing in properties anymore.
I first noticed this issue through a friend of mine, who, after their child graduated from university, was preparing to sell an extra luxury residence. (This is not specific; the phenomenon is quite common, so please do not take it personally.)
This is also a relatively famous luxury residence in Shenzhen. I won't write the specific name here, but a few years ago during the peak, it was worth around 20-30 million. However, it has been listed for a year or two now and simply cannot be sold.
1. Luxury residences have suddenly become very hard to sell.
That is, luxury residences around the world have suddenly become very hard to sell. Wealthy people are only willing to spend money on their own homes and are not very keen on investing in properties anymore.
I first noticed this issue through a friend of mine, who, after their child graduated from university, was preparing to sell an extra luxury residence. (This is not specific; the phenomenon is quite common, so please do not take it personally.)
This is also a relatively famous luxury residence in Shenzhen. I won't write the specific name here, but a few years ago during the peak, it was worth around 20-30 million. However, it has been listed for a year or two now and simply cannot be sold.
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This data is great, a high-tech anti-involution representative, most of which are bull stocks, not as investment advice
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The author of 'The Turtle Trading Rules' goes bankrupt
Recently, I saw a news story that was very moving, that is, Curtis Faith, the author of 'The Turtle Trading Rules', has gone bankrupt, is homeless, and is wandering the streets.
1. The 19-year-old genius trader
He was arrested in Massachusetts for disturbing the peace, and police records registered him as 'homeless', with his last address being a shelter.
He has fallen into economic bankruptcy, homelessness, and has legal troubles. In an interview, he mentioned that he had 'only 27 dollars left in his pocket', his wife is unemployed, and their finances are nearly in ruins.
1. The 19-year-old genius trader
He was arrested in Massachusetts for disturbing the peace, and police records registered him as 'homeless', with his last address being a shelter.
He has fallen into economic bankruptcy, homelessness, and has legal troubles. In an interview, he mentioned that he had 'only 27 dollars left in his pocket', his wife is unemployed, and their finances are nearly in ruins.
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The worship of freshness is a label of smallholder societies; the acceptance of frozen and pre-prepared foods is an inevitability of industrialized societies.
In terms of flavor, smallholders naturally excel, which is why the food-industrialized West still retains organic supermarkets and farmers' markets. However, in terms of cost, efficiency, hygiene, uniformity, and scalability... among other attributes that align with modern industrialized societies, smallholders find it difficult to stand firm. The industrialization of food (such as pre-prepared dishes) is inevitable.
Personal recipe suggestion: protein, primarily white meat + vegetables + a small amount of staple food or no staple food, do not drink milk tea, do not eat large amounts of rice or noodles.
In terms of flavor, smallholders naturally excel, which is why the food-industrialized West still retains organic supermarkets and farmers' markets. However, in terms of cost, efficiency, hygiene, uniformity, and scalability... among other attributes that align with modern industrialized societies, smallholders find it difficult to stand firm. The industrialization of food (such as pre-prepared dishes) is inevitable.
Personal recipe suggestion: protein, primarily white meat + vegetables + a small amount of staple food or no staple food, do not drink milk tea, do not eat large amounts of rice or noodles.
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How to select explosive technology stocks?
In recent years, global technology stocks have been very popular. So, just in time for the weekend, I read a book about high-growth technology stocks and would like to share some of my views on them. (There are benefits at the end of the article.)
1. The global technology stock wave has arrived
This year, in the global capital market, whether it's the AI wave in the United States, the semiconductor industry in Japan and South Korea, or China's intelligent manufacturing, capital has regarded 'technology' as the core track.
Among the major global stock indices, technology stocks have significantly increased in weight. Taking the balanced S&P 500 in the United States as an example, the weight of technology stocks is close to 40%, making it a 'stabilizing force'. The combined weight of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia exceeds 20%, which has a decisive influence on the movement of the S&P 500 index.
1. The global technology stock wave has arrived
This year, in the global capital market, whether it's the AI wave in the United States, the semiconductor industry in Japan and South Korea, or China's intelligent manufacturing, capital has regarded 'technology' as the core track.
Among the major global stock indices, technology stocks have significantly increased in weight. Taking the balanced S&P 500 in the United States as an example, the weight of technology stocks is close to 40%, making it a 'stabilizing force'. The combined weight of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia exceeds 20%, which has a decisive influence on the movement of the S&P 500 index.
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In order to compete directly with Apple, Xiaomi skipped 16 and renamed its new flagship phone to Xiaomi 17. It includes three products: Xiaomi 17, Xiaomi 17 Pro, Xiaomi 17 Pro Max.
Personally, I think if you buy Xiaomi, just go for its speakers or the inexpensive Redmi products; high-end cars and such are better left alone.
Personally, I think if you buy Xiaomi, just go for its speakers or the inexpensive Redmi products; high-end cars and such are better left alone.
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Is it time to pick up passengers and seize opportunities?
Last week, several major indices in the A-share market experienced some pullbacks, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,800 points. Some growth sectors represented by AI and semiconductors saw significant declines.
The so-called 'three bullish lines change belief' suggests that at this time, the previously optimistic sentiment in the market has been somewhat affected, leading some investors to feel confused about the market. Some choose to stay out of the market, while others who chased high prices earlier have cut losses and exited.
But the capital market has always been contrary to human nature, which is why Buffett said: 'As an investor, we should be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.'
The so-called 'three bullish lines change belief' suggests that at this time, the previously optimistic sentiment in the market has been somewhat affected, leading some investors to feel confused about the market. Some choose to stay out of the market, while others who chased high prices earlier have cut losses and exited.
But the capital market has always been contrary to human nature, which is why Buffett said: 'As an investor, we should be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.'
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Five Core Indicators to Discover a Long-term Bull 'Fixed Income +'
Last Thursday, the market experienced a rare significant fluctuation, especially as some of the recently popular 'track stocks' had substantial pullbacks, with some technology funds betting on a single track dropping by more than 10% that day.
Meanwhile, some previously unpopular sectors such as consumption, banking, and dividends showed signs of rebound.
This actually serves as a wake-up call for investors; there is no market that only goes up without going down. Once the market fluctuates violently, can you still preserve your gains?
As we enter September, the rotation in the A-shares has accelerated, and the difficulty of investing is undoubtedly increasing. Many investors want to win but fear losing, falling into confusion.
Meanwhile, some previously unpopular sectors such as consumption, banking, and dividends showed signs of rebound.
This actually serves as a wake-up call for investors; there is no market that only goes up without going down. Once the market fluctuates violently, can you still preserve your gains?
As we enter September, the rotation in the A-shares has accelerated, and the difficulty of investing is undoubtedly increasing. Many investors want to win but fear losing, falling into confusion.
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Don't mess with Lao Deng
$Zhongji Xuchuang (SZ300308)$
$Zhongji Xuchuang (SZ300308)$
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Munger has emphasized "probabilistic thinking" and "accepting reality" throughout his life.
The world is complex and full of uncertainty.
We can never predict the future with precision. Therefore, what we can do is not to pursue certainty, but to make better decisions under the premise of acknowledging uncertainty.
In this regard, Munger has made two statements:
1. "(In investing) the whole trick of the game is that you have to accurately judge when a few rare opportunities arise, that it is better than the usual opportunities, and then only bet at that time. You cannot make a lot of decisions everywhere and expect to outperform the market."
2. "We are keen on keeping things simple, and placing heavy bets when opportunities arise. This is a hallmark of an excellent investor. We try to find a company that has a wide and durable economic moat. And we have no opinion on 95% of the stocks."
These two statements are a clear expression of Munger's thoughts on "probabilistic thinking" and "accepting reality." Precisely because the world is uncertain and opportunities are scarce, we should focus on things that we can understand and have higher certainty about, rather than pretending to understand everything.
The world is complex and full of uncertainty.
We can never predict the future with precision. Therefore, what we can do is not to pursue certainty, but to make better decisions under the premise of acknowledging uncertainty.
In this regard, Munger has made two statements:
1. "(In investing) the whole trick of the game is that you have to accurately judge when a few rare opportunities arise, that it is better than the usual opportunities, and then only bet at that time. You cannot make a lot of decisions everywhere and expect to outperform the market."
2. "We are keen on keeping things simple, and placing heavy bets when opportunities arise. This is a hallmark of an excellent investor. We try to find a company that has a wide and durable economic moat. And we have no opinion on 95% of the stocks."
These two statements are a clear expression of Munger's thoughts on "probabilistic thinking" and "accepting reality." Precisely because the world is uncertain and opportunities are scarce, we should focus on things that we can understand and have higher certainty about, rather than pretending to understand everything.
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Reasons why the financial industry must pay attention to Huawei's three-fold screen
When the Huawei Mate XTs 'Extraordinary Master' three-fold was released, sparking widespread discussion online, the financial industry also迎来了a unprecedented transformation. Because at this launch event, the only financial technology partner on stage—Wind—put a 'future laboratory' belonging to finance professionals into their pockets.
From fragmentation to a global view: the revolution of information
For traders, time is money.
At 6:30 AM, the Mate XTs unfolded at the bedside, and the 10.2-inch large screen lit up in an instant. The Alice smart assistant reported on last night's Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and the page has automatically summarized relevant information on selected stocks, bond risk warnings, and sudden signals.
From fragmentation to a global view: the revolution of information
For traders, time is money.
At 6:30 AM, the Mate XTs unfolded at the bedside, and the 10.2-inch large screen lit up in an instant. The Alice smart assistant reported on last night's Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and the page has automatically summarized relevant information on selected stocks, bond risk warnings, and sudden signals.
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A large amount of funds missed this market wave!
Today, I will write an observation on the market.
1. Have you made money in the market?
This wave of the A-share market this year is quite remarkable from the data.
The Shanghai Composite Index has emerged from a slow bull trend and has now stood above 3800 points, setting a new 10-year high. The trading volume of the two markets has continuously exceeded 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days, and on August 25, the trading volume broke 3 trillion yuan, refreshing the annual trading volume.
Data source: Wind, as of 2025.9.1, past performance does not guarantee future results.
I looked at the Wind equity-type mixed fund index, and as of September 1, the year-to-date increase reached 30%, which is already an astonishing number.
1. Have you made money in the market?
This wave of the A-share market this year is quite remarkable from the data.
The Shanghai Composite Index has emerged from a slow bull trend and has now stood above 3800 points, setting a new 10-year high. The trading volume of the two markets has continuously exceeded 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days, and on August 25, the trading volume broke 3 trillion yuan, refreshing the annual trading volume.
Data source: Wind, as of 2025.9.1, past performance does not guarantee future results.
I looked at the Wind equity-type mixed fund index, and as of September 1, the year-to-date increase reached 30%, which is already an astonishing number.
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Entrepreneurship in the AI era belongs only to super individuals. Tech giants continue to monopolize everything, and medium-sized companies have no way out.
If you have money, you can make a profit by investing in the best AI companies.
If you don't have money, then utilizing good AI is the only leverage in this era.
If you have money, you can make a profit by investing in the best AI companies.
If you don't have money, then utilizing good AI is the only leverage in this era.
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Question: Which leading listed companies in the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks focus on AI applications?
Question: Which leading listed companies in the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks focus on AI applications?
Answer: As of August 2025, here is a summary of the leading listed companies in the A-shares and Hong Kong markets that focus on the field of AI applications:
A-shares: Representative enterprises in the AI applications and AI chip fields
AI chips and computing power (infrastructure level)
Cambricon-U: A well-known domestic intelligent chip manufacturer, providing cloud-edge-end collaborative solutions, a hardware and software collaborative platform, with global influence;
Jingjia Micro, Haiguang Information, Chipone, etc.: High R&D investment, focusing on the domestic computing power chip field;
Answer: As of August 2025, here is a summary of the leading listed companies in the A-shares and Hong Kong markets that focus on the field of AI applications:
A-shares: Representative enterprises in the AI applications and AI chip fields
AI chips and computing power (infrastructure level)
Cambricon-U: A well-known domestic intelligent chip manufacturer, providing cloud-edge-end collaborative solutions, a hardware and software collaborative platform, with global influence;
Jingjia Micro, Haiguang Information, Chipone, etc.: High R&D investment, focusing on the domestic computing power chip field;
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Sudden, large-scale adjustments in technology funds!
Today I'm writing something unexpected.
I. Some technology funds clearly adjusted their portfolios yesterday.
When sorting data at yesterday's close, I found that despite the significant rise in computing power and CPO concepts, under normal estimates, the net value growth of technology funds heavily invested in CPO should be around 3%-4% that day. However, many funds that were heavily invested in these companies saw their net value drop by about 0.5% to 1.5% last night.
If we observe the net value over the past few days, we can find that some funds have movements and valuations close to holdings, so why was there such a large change yesterday?
I personally believe that a reasonable explanation is that these technology funds have recently completed large-scale portfolio adjustments.
I. Some technology funds clearly adjusted their portfolios yesterday.
When sorting data at yesterday's close, I found that despite the significant rise in computing power and CPO concepts, under normal estimates, the net value growth of technology funds heavily invested in CPO should be around 3%-4% that day. However, many funds that were heavily invested in these companies saw their net value drop by about 0.5% to 1.5% last night.
If we observe the net value over the past few days, we can find that some funds have movements and valuations close to holdings, so why was there such a large change yesterday?
I personally believe that a reasonable explanation is that these technology funds have recently completed large-scale portfolio adjustments.
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Translation:
Summer vacation back to Shanghai Economic Observation
1. Housing prices continue to decline; the old and small apartments in the inner ring that sold for 4 million during the summer vacation of 2024 are now only around 3.2 million. Over the past year, it feels like the prices of second-hand homes in Shanghai are accelerating downward.
2. More people are unemployed, and there is a trend of this spreading from finance and real estate to various industries. Friends over 40 from foreign investment have basically all been laid off. The friends who are still working are mostly within the system. Those who originally started their own businesses are also scaling back.
3. When taking Didi, many drivers, upon hearing their accent, are local Shanghainese. Previously, there were very few local people even in regular taxis, but recently there are more and more local drivers. Additionally, there is a trend of younger drivers, many around 40 years old. The benefit is that the condition of the cars has improved significantly; many drivers only work half a day, from around 7 AM to 3 PM, and then pick up their children or go grocery shopping. I chatted with some local drivers, and most of their cars are purchased by themselves. By working half a day, they can earn a net profit of 4,000 to 5,000 a month, which helps cover flexible employment and grocery expenses.
4. When gathering with friends, those born in the 70s typically have children who are in high school at the youngest, all counting the days until retirement. The 80s generation, however, is in a tougher situation; those with a bit of money are looking for places to relax, with popular discussions about Japan, Chiang Mai, and New Zealand. Those without money can only rely on local opportunities. I know a couple of unemployed friends from the 80s, with their children still in elementary school; they had to give up their large three-bedroom apartment in Minhang and move to a relocation house in Meilan Lake, living off a 10,000 yuan rent difference. The happiest couples from the 80s are two child-free pairs of friends, who are both in a semi-retired state, driving for leisure trips. One couple exchanged their inner-ring apartment for a suburban one at the peak in 2021 and suddenly found themselves with several million more; they have already started traveling around the world.
Summer vacation back to Shanghai Economic Observation
1. Housing prices continue to decline; the old and small apartments in the inner ring that sold for 4 million during the summer vacation of 2024 are now only around 3.2 million. Over the past year, it feels like the prices of second-hand homes in Shanghai are accelerating downward.
2. More people are unemployed, and there is a trend of this spreading from finance and real estate to various industries. Friends over 40 from foreign investment have basically all been laid off. The friends who are still working are mostly within the system. Those who originally started their own businesses are also scaling back.
3. When taking Didi, many drivers, upon hearing their accent, are local Shanghainese. Previously, there were very few local people even in regular taxis, but recently there are more and more local drivers. Additionally, there is a trend of younger drivers, many around 40 years old. The benefit is that the condition of the cars has improved significantly; many drivers only work half a day, from around 7 AM to 3 PM, and then pick up their children or go grocery shopping. I chatted with some local drivers, and most of their cars are purchased by themselves. By working half a day, they can earn a net profit of 4,000 to 5,000 a month, which helps cover flexible employment and grocery expenses.
4. When gathering with friends, those born in the 70s typically have children who are in high school at the youngest, all counting the days until retirement. The 80s generation, however, is in a tougher situation; those with a bit of money are looking for places to relax, with popular discussions about Japan, Chiang Mai, and New Zealand. Those without money can only rely on local opportunities. I know a couple of unemployed friends from the 80s, with their children still in elementary school; they had to give up their large three-bedroom apartment in Minhang and move to a relocation house in Meilan Lake, living off a 10,000 yuan rent difference. The happiest couples from the 80s are two child-free pairs of friends, who are both in a semi-retired state, driving for leisure trips. One couple exchanged their inner-ring apartment for a suburban one at the peak in 2021 and suddenly found themselves with several million more; they have already started traveling around the world.
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In 2025, with significant changes in the market, discover a diverse and balanced strong player
In 2025, with significant changes in the market, how to choose?
In 2025, the A-share market will enter a good trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 3800 points, setting a nearly 10-year high. The total turnover of the two markets will exceed 30 trillion yuan, and the balance of margin trading will break 20 trillion yuan, with investors' willingness to enter the market continuously increasing.
In this process, the market prefers aggressive assets, favoring the technology sector and track funds, especially in directions like AI, robotics, and innovative drugs, where popularity is high and many companies have doubled within the year.
But the rotation of industry sectors and the divergence in the market are increasing—since recent days, it is not difficult to find that as leading U.S. technology companies begin to adjust, and profit and leveraged funds are withdrawn, it has also affected the performance of related industry chain companies in the A-share market, with some showing considerable volatility.
In 2025, the A-share market will enter a good trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 3800 points, setting a nearly 10-year high. The total turnover of the two markets will exceed 30 trillion yuan, and the balance of margin trading will break 20 trillion yuan, with investors' willingness to enter the market continuously increasing.
In this process, the market prefers aggressive assets, favoring the technology sector and track funds, especially in directions like AI, robotics, and innovative drugs, where popularity is high and many companies have doubled within the year.
But the rotation of industry sectors and the divergence in the market are increasing—since recent days, it is not difficult to find that as leading U.S. technology companies begin to adjust, and profit and leveraged funds are withdrawn, it has also affected the performance of related industry chain companies in the A-share market, with some showing considerable volatility.
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If someone who becomes wealthy by trading stocks remembers, he must be a truly remarkable person.
The path of trading requires enough strength and confidence, which cannot be gained through education, but only through self-reliance. The flow of water does not compete for the front, what is earned is endless.
His management of emotions, understanding of human nature, and high level of cognition are all unique existences. Any slight flaw in character will be defeated by the market.
The path of trading requires enough strength and confidence, which cannot be gained through education, but only through self-reliance. The flow of water does not compete for the front, what is earned is endless.
His management of emotions, understanding of human nature, and high level of cognition are all unique existences. Any slight flaw in character will be defeated by the market.
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