Gonzalo Etling Soaf

🚩Bulls believe this is last dip before altszn
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🎩Bears think bull run is over
I spent 10+ hours analyzing all the data: here are all the possible scenarios and when market will turn around
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Basically, the cycle is broken, making it really hard to figure out what’s next.
There are three possible scenarios (imo):
• This is the final dip before altseason begins (Thrill)
• This is the beginning of the end (Anxiety)
• The cycle is already over (Anger)
🌟
We are currently between Anger and Depression stages or at Belief/Thrill stage, imo (which is almost the same)
✧ While for many, this becomes the phase of exiting the market, for me, it's a phase of opportunities
✧ Here's my thesis:
I can't say that retail is fully trapped yet, and I think bullish sentiment is still strong, so I don't see why MM would make this dip the start of a bear market.
It's important to understand that the market maker's goal is to extract as much money from retail (us) as possible.
To do that, the most likely scenario, in my view, is a slow decline over a month or more - just enough to make believers lose hope, but not enough to stop them from FOMOing back into alts later.
That’s why I’m slowly starting to build positions, since I believe there’s still plenty of time and prices will likely go even lower.
Here are all the key factors affecting the market rn and why I think this way:
2/➮ Disbelief in Altseason
✧ The prolonged absence of an obvious and straightforward altseason has negatively affected retail investors
✧ Now, it feels like no one believes in altseason anymore
✧ Most have moved to the meme casino, while the rest have simply given up on alts
✧ This has led to a loss of hope, sentiment, and attention
3/➮ An excess of scams
✧ Never in any cycle has there been so much scam activity, and so openly at that
✧ Every third celebrity without money is talking about crypto and launching a token on SOL
✧ At the same time, they rug it by -99% within a few days, doing it blatantly
✧ Such events negatively impact sentiment
4/➮ Trump - ProCrypto President
✧ Trump gave us huge expectations: bullish on crypto, never sell your Bitcoin, BTC reserve
✧ But in reality, he has now stepped away from crypto and hardly mentions it anymore
✧ This has also negatively affected the market at the moment
✧ However, we remember that the U.S. BTC reserve has already been confirmed
5/➮ Bybit's Hack
✧ The biggest hack in crypto history that dumped ETH
✧ Bybit was hacked, and $1.5B in ETH was stolen, which is a huge amount
✧ Hacks always negatively impact both overall sentiment and the market itself
6/➮ BTC as a Macro Asset
✧ Everyone still believes that if BTC pumped like this, alts will pump somewhere soon too—but no
✧ BTC has now partly become a macro asset, globally recognized
✧ That's why it can grow, but crypto itself doesn't necessarily follow
✧ On the other hand, when BTC drops, alts drop too
✧ This is due to an oversupply of alts on the market, so it’s crucial to finally understand: alts will pump, BUT definitely not all of them, it's not 2021 anymore. Choose wisely.
7/➮ Stablecoin Index
✧ On the other hand, we have the stablecoin index, which is still far from reaching levels seen in previous cycles
✧ This index indicates new capital entering the crypto market
✧ And at the moment, it is only starting to grow
8/➮ Global Net Liquidity Index
✧ There's also an indicator that tracks major central banks' assets and FED reserves
✧ Right now, we are witnessing its reversal, which accordingly signals a possible market reversal as well
✧ For now, it’s in correction too
9/➮ FTX Payouts
✧ Let’s also remember the FTX payouts, which have already started
✧ In the next couple of weeks, about ~$7B will be paid out, and these will also be reinvested into the market
✧ This will also give a nice boost to the market's growth
10/➮ Leading Market Players
✧ The most bullish factor remains that leading market players are actively accumulating
✧ WorldLiberty, Michael Saylor, BlackRock - these leading companies are massively building positions
✧ They are clearly not doing this without a strategy and just for no reason
11/➮ Conclusion
✧ Considering all factors and the overall picture, things aren’t as bad as they seem, but the fact remains:
We are currently in the disbelief stage
✧ It's exactly these moments that create the best opportunities
✧ Learn new skills and develop yourself, before the market pump, and find yourself among the winners at the end of this cycle
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We put a lot of research and work FOR FREE into this thread before reading it.
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