MR ANIQUL

BITCOIN Why nobody talks about this??
That was the last indicator standing and now it is as clear as it can get. With last month's candle close, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has confirmed that it has already started a new Bear Cycle.
The reason is simple and it is one of the most basic trading indicators out there. The 1M MACD was already on a Bearish Cross since October, and November's closing widened the gap to such extent that it is not recoverable anymore.
This has happened every time during a BTC Bear Cycle and in two of the past three cases, it took place while already on the Bear Cycle. History has shown that there is no coming back from this and BTC should start looking for the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1M MA100 (green trend-line) Zone. If all the Bear Cycle indicators we've shown on analyses since September were early signs, the MACD is conclusive and as mentioned, has confirmed it.
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#BTC $BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD

As of December 9, the crypto market capitalization has decreased by approximately 1.2%.
Market leaders — Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) — have declined: BTC dropped to around $90 480, ETH — down to ~$3 122.
Today, 86 out of the top 100 coins and all 10 of the largest cryptocurrencies are showing declines.
🔎 What’s Happening with the Main Players
Bitcoin (BTC)$BTC
BTC is trading in the $90,000–91,000 range, remaining within the $84 000–94,000 band where it has been since mid-November.
Since early October, when BTC reached a record ~$126 000, the price has dropped by about a third.
Technical analysts note: the current trend is not a reversal but more of a pause; the market's reaction to upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions may determine the next direction.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has rebounded above recent lows — to levels not seen since mid-November.
According to technical analysis, Ethereum has broken through the resistance zone (around $3 200) and has growth potential up to ~$3 600.
At the same time, large institutional holders are increasing their ETH accumulation — for example, one organization added about 138,400 ETH, which decreases the circulating supply.
⚠️ Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors
The market is dominated by correction sentiment: many investors are taking profits, especially ahead of expected Fed decisions.
Nevertheless, analysts note that low price levels may attract long-term investors and institutional capital — especially if the Fed lowers the rate.
Not only BTC and ETH are in the spotlight: there is growing interest in altcoins — particularly those related to DeFi, Layer-2, and RWA tokenization.
🌐 Altcoins and Promising Assets
Solana (SOL), XRP, Zcash (ZEC) are seen as the most interesting altcoins to buy amid overall market weakness.
Attention to projects in the privacy, gaming, and DeFi segments is a December trend: some tokens from these niches are already showing notable volatility.$ETH
📅 What to Watch in the Near Term
The Fed’s interest rate decision is the main upcoming market driver. Its outcome could set the tone for December–January.
Monitoring large institutional purchases of (ETH, BTC), as well as “whale” actions on altcoins — possible signals of a new wave of interest.
Pay attention to altcoins and tokens based on new blockchain solutions: DeFi, Layer-2, real asset tokenization — those who catch the wave early may have an advantage.

Bitcoin is the leader, altcoins follow it, and I stick to my plan after the US Federal Reserve meeting.
Anya, what were you thinking? I look at this whole situation and see it very simply from my perspective. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it means there’s a bit more money in the world, and people are ready to take risks again. For me, that’s a sign that crypto might rebound, and it’s time to expect an upward move. In this story, Bitcoin is the leader, setting the direction, and altcoins follow as if they’re tied with a rope. When Bitcoin starts to move, the other coins respond faster and stronger, and that’s when the market truly comes alive. I want action—definitely upward. But… as the winds blow!

And here’s an important point—the Fed itself. Many people hear those three letters and pretend they understand everything in the world, but let’s be honest, I’m still learning myself: the Fed is the Federal Reserve System of the United States. It’s like the “central bank of all central banks.” It decides how easy and cheap or how hard and expensive money will be in the world. When the Fed raises interest rates, money becomes like nuts in chocolate—you want it, but it’s expensive. And when it cuts rates, money starts flowing into markets like spring rain into the earth. People become bolder, invest more, and take more risks. That’s when crypto markets rebound so quickly that sometimes I sit and think: “Were you all just waiting for this?”

I’ve decided that the best option now is to enter the market gradually. I keep part of my funds in GT and another part in the stablecoin USDT, so I always have a reserve to enter the market quickly at the right moment. For me, that’s like support: the funds don’t fluctuate, and I can act calmly when the right opportunity appears. I’m new to the market, so I don’t have a lot of reserves. I have to protect what I have saved, and this is the right strategy. Money shouldn’t be in just one coin, but in several, so I’m watching others and hoping to buy more BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL. That’s for the future! I’ll jot that down so I don’t forget!#Write2Earn

I also leave a small part for trading when I’m confident I won’t lose. The first few minutes after the news are often chaotic—the market might suddenly spike or dip a bit. If it rises too quickly, I’ll wait for it to calm down, then enter. If it drops suddenly, I’ll buy coins at the bottom. My golden rule: buy at the lows, sell at the highs! Remember that, beginners! For me, this is a chance to profit while staying calm and not giving in to panic. Panic isn’t my style. Anya has time and isn’t in a rush, especially since money has always been hard to come by for me, and still is.

That’s how I see the situation now. A rate cut is a signal for crypto, and for me, it’s the best option: a chance to profit while staying cautious and calm. Bitcoin is the leader, altcoins follow, and I’m watching, entering the market gradually, and always keeping a reserve for maneuvering. My strategy is as simple as a door and as solid as… that foundation a skyscraper can stand on without shaking. What an idea! I’m a giant of ideas!))

And here, when I make this “mature” financial decision, my inner voice wakes up and starts nagging:
- Anya, are you sure?
- Yes.
- Are you certain?
- Yes, I’m certain.
- Well, then this is your decision alone. Don’t blame anyone later…
And I laugh, because that’s my truth: cautious but with a strong personality. Sometimes I find myself in front of the charts, and suddenly the second Anya appears in my head—the one who loves to joke:
- So, up or down today?
- Up, please.
- Oh, did the market hear you?
- I hope so, because I’m here with it like a spouse: I ask, I persuade, and sometimes I bargain.
And when BTC makes a sudden move, I say out loud:
- Don’t scare me like that! At least give me a warning so I can buy some sedatives…
Then I laugh at myself—who would warn me? That’s crypto.

With all this inner drama, I stick to my plan. Because I know: If I’m going to build my financial story, it has to be on a solid foundation, without confusion or hysteria. I don’t chase the market, I don’t rush after the first move, and I don’t spend the last of what I have. I have a strategy, and it works when I’m as calm as a rabbit in front of a snake.

That’s how I seize the opportunity: the market lives its life, Bitcoin leads everyone, and I follow my plan—with humor, without panic, with a reserve for maneuvering, and with faith that every move is part of my right path.

And deep inside, the second Anya whispers:
- Aren’t we awesome?
- Of course we are.

In these moments, when everything is organized, I feel proud of myself. Thank you, crypto, for being in my life. And the rest… is up to God!
#FedRateCutPrediction
#WeeklyHighlightPosts
$BTC

<t-217/><t-218/>#FedRateCutPrediction
What actually happens after a rate cut?

Rate cuts are one of the most powerful financial events in the financial market. When the Fed cuts rates, it sends a strong signal that liquidity conditions are easing. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, reduce pressure in the financial markets, and often push investors toward high-return assets like crypto and tech stocks.

$WLD (Worldcoin) up 4.48% in 24 hoursAccording to market analysis on December 9, citing CoinMarketCap data, as of press time, WLD (Worldcoin) is currently trading at $0.60, up 4.48% in the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $0.66 and a low of $0.56. The 24-hour trading volume is $114 million.

The current market cap is about $1.444 billion, an increase of $62 million compared to yesterday.Worldcoin is committed to providing real identity verification, inclusive finance, and connectivity for everyone globally. Its core products include World ID—a privacy-preserving proof-of-personhood system for the AI era, which can be used in scenarios requiring the distinction between humans and bots, such as financial services, concert ticket sales, dating apps, and video games. The World App offers easy access to the Worldcoin ecosystem, World Chain is a blockchain designed specifically for real humans, and the WLD token allocates network ownership to every individual. As of now, Worldcoin has over 17.61 million verified users in more than 160 countries, with a cumulative distribution of 857 million tokens and a global network of 1,080 active verification centers.Recent key news about WLD:

1️⃣ Ecosystem’s Verified User Base Continues to Expand Worldcoin has accumulated over 17.61 million verified users across more than 160 countries, demonstrating significant progress in building its identity authentication network. The number of active verification centers has surpassed 1,080, indicating improved user onboarding channels and laying a solid foundation for ecosystem development. This supports the real-world use cases and network value accumulation of the WLD token.
2️⃣ Treasury Development Drives Project Valuation Up The project team has initiated a treasury development plan, a significant milestone that has led to a notable increase in the price of the WLD token. This reflects the market’s positive outlook on the project's long-term strategy and enhanced financial transparency, boosting investor confidence in the sustainability of the Worldcoin ecosystem.
3️⃣ Diversified Core Application Scenarios Unlock Growth Potential World ID, as an anonymous proof-of-personhood system for the AI era, is being adopted in financial services, entertainment, gaming, and other sectors, creating real utility for the WLD ecosystem. World Chain, as a blockchain infrastructure designed for real humans, together with the application layer World App, forms a closed-loop ecosystem, providing substantive support for the demand and liquidity of the token.This information is not investment advice. Please be aware of market volatility risks when investin$WLD
$BTC

Surfing the Crypto Waves: 12.9 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Tactical Allocation Guide

As Bitcoin makes its 17th tentative assault on the $90,000 level and Ethereum builds micro-defenses around $3,100, the entire crypto market is entering a classic volatility compression window. This isn't the end of the trend, but rather the calm before the storm. As market observers, we must look beyond the surface of candlesticks and seek high-probability tactical entry points through multi-timeframe technical resonance and micro order book structure.

I. Market Environment Anchoring: Triple Drivers Behind Volatility Convergence

The market is currently at the intersection of a policy lull and technical indicator convergence. After the Fed’s December rate decision, markets have fully priced in the rate cut path for 2026, with little new macro catalyst in the short term. This makes price action more dependent on technical structure.

Key observation dimensions:

• Volatility Index: Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has dropped to 42%, a three-month low, indicating the market is in a low-volatility equilibrium state

• Institutional Positioning: CME Bitcoin futures open interest remains high at $3.8 billion, but the basis rate has fallen from 15% to 8%, showing leveraged funds are becoming more cautious

• On-chain Data: Long-term holders (>155 days) maintain a steady 58% of supply, while net exchange inflows have been negative for three consecutive days, suggesting selling pressure mainly comes from short-term speculators

In this environment, a breakout requires volume to expand to at least 1.5 times the daily average ($4.5 billion); otherwise, any directional move risks falling into a liquidity trap.

II. Bitcoin Technical Breakdown: Micro Signals Within the Range

4H Chart: Bollinger Band Convergence and Momentum Exhaustion

On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands show classic contraction, with bandwidth down to 0.15—approaching a critical breakout alert. Price has retreated from the upper band ($92,300) to the median ($90,500), consistent with mean reversion.

MACD: The histogram turning from red to green isn’t a simple bearish signal but a transitional state of momentum exhaustion and directional choice. The DIF line turning down above the zero axis indicates weakening bullish momentum but not a reversal—beware of bear traps. Key validation: if DIF does not break below zero, shortening green bars may be a new long entry signal.

KDJ: All three lines have formed a bearish crossover at the high (70) and are diverging downward. The current K (52) and D (58) are not yet oversold (<20), indicating short-term downside potential. Watch for confluence support at the lower Bollinger band ($88,700) and the bottom of the range ($88,000).

1H Chart: Range Boundary Validation

The $88,000–$92,300 zone has formed a small range for 11 trading days, with upper and lower bounds tested a total of 23 times—proving its validity. Inside, the lows are rising and highs are falling, forming a converging triangle, indicating balanced bull-bear strength.

Key micro signals:

• Volume Profile: Volume peak ($8.2 billion cumulative) has formed in the $88,000–$89,000 region, providing strong support

• Order Book Depth: Current sell orders in $91,500–$92,500 total $120 million, buy orders in $88,500–$89,500 total $98 million; sell/buy ratio is 1.22:1—breakout requires external capital

• Time Window: The range has lasted 11 days, close to the average breakout cycle (12–15 days); probability of directional move in next 48 hours exceeds 65%

Doji Candlestick Significance: Frequent dojis recently do not simply indicate balance, but signal the market awaits macro guidance. Before key data (e.g., CPI, rate decisions), large players tend to reduce positions and wait, causing narrow price swings.

III. Ethereum Technical Mapping: Independent Logic Amid Correlation

Ethereum is moving in the $3,000–$3,220 range. Its technical structure is influenced by Bitcoin, but also has independent drivers (e.g., Layer2 TVL growth, higher staking rates).

4H Chart: Defending the Channel Bottom

ETH is following a descending channel, with the lower bound at $2,980 and upper at $3,220. Current price is near the lower bound; channel integrity is key to trend continuation.

• MACD: After a golden cross below zero, the histogram is slightly red, showing weakening bearish momentum. But DIF is still below zero, meaning it’s a weak rebound—watch for a second bottom.

• RSI: Currently at 41, in the neutral-to-bearish zone. If $2,980 fails, price could test $2,900 (200-day MA support).

• Correlation Advantage: ETH/BTC rate has stabilized near 0.034. If it rebounds above 0.036, ETH relative strength is confirmed and should be prioritized.

1H Chart: Dense Transaction Support/Resistance Zones

The $2,980–$3,010 zone was the launchpad for the October rebound, with heavy long positions accumulated. A clean break would trigger a cascade of long stop-losses, targeting $2,900. Conversely, $3,190–$3,220 is a heavy overhead supply zone; breakout needs volume >$12 billion to confirm reversal.

Key validation signal: If ETH posts a long lower wick near $3,000 plus a spike in volume, and DeFi TVL rises 3%+, treat it as a false breakdown—go long on reversal.

IV. Trading Strategy Logic: Probability-weighted Dynamic Adjustments

Bitcoin Strategy Matrix

Long Setup ($87,500–$88,500):

• Entry: Triple confluence of range bottom, lower Bollinger band, and $88,000 round-number support

• Stop-loss: 500 points (~0.6%)—breaking $87,500 will trigger quant stops and could quickly test $86,000

• Target: First $89,000 (0.5 Fib retracement), second $90,000 (median resistance), risk-reward ~1:2.5

Short Setup ($91,500–$92,500):

• Entry: Triple resistance—range top, $91,500 barrier, heavy volume zone

• Stop-loss: $93,500 hard stop—breaking $93,000 attracts breakout chasers, may spike to $94,000

• Target: First $90,500 (0.382 retracement), second $89,500 (median support), risk-reward ~1:2

Ethereum Strategy Matrix

Long Setup ($2,980–$3,010):

• Entry: Channel bottom, strong $2,980 support, and staking yield as floor (current APR=4.2%)

• Stop-loss: 30 points (~1%)—breaking $2,980 opens $2,900–$2,950 downside

• Target: First $3,100 (channel median), second $3,150 (0.5 retracement), risk-reward ~1:2.3

Short Setup ($3,190–$3,220):

• Entry: Channel top, $3,200 psychological barrier, trapped longs selling pressure

• Stop-loss: $3,320 hard stop—above $3,220 triggers short covering, may quickly test $3,300

• Target: First $3,100 (median), second $3,000 (lower bound), risk-reward ~1:2.1

V. Systemic Risk Management: Survival Rules Beyond Technical Levels

1. Position Sizing Discipline

Total exposure should not exceed 60% of available capital; single-trade risk capped at 2% of total position. For example, on a $100,000 account, max loss per trade is $2,000.

2. Emotion Management

During range trading, limit trades to 2 per day to avoid overtrading. Set a “cool-off period”—after two consecutive losses, pause trading for 24 hours.

3. Dynamic Adjustment

If price breaks and holds above $92,500, immediately stop short and go long, targeting $94,000–$95,000. If breaks below $87,500, stop long and wait for $86,000–$86,500 for confirmation.

4. Macro Risk Hedging

Spot holders can hedge by buying CME put options with a $85,000 strike, 1-month expiry. Premium is about 2.8%, effectively insuring the position.

VI. Conclusion: Order in Chaos, Opportunity in Volatility

The current market is neither a clear bull nor bear, but a “volatility contraction phase”—the silent stage before a major move. For professional traders, it’s a golden window to hone systems and optimize costs; for trend investors, it’s a time to patiently await breakout signals.

Remember, most range-trading losses are from acting too soon, not from getting the direction wrong. Until the $88,000–$92,500 range is clearly broken, all trades are tactical, not strategic. The true rally requires threefold confirmation: volume up to 1.5x daily average, on-chain data confirming sustained inflows, and new macro catalysts.

In crypto, survival is about discipline, profit is about patience, wealth is about understanding. Rather than predicting the storm, build your ark.

Facing the current range-bound market, what’s your asset allocation strategy?

A. Heavy in Bitcoin, waiting for breakout

B. Light position, waiting for clear direction

C. Focusing on altcoins, capturing high volatility

D. Using spot-futures arbitrage for steady funding income

Share your choice and reasoning in the comments. Like and share this article to help more investors build a scientific trading framework.

Follow me for daily multi-dimensional market deconstructions and strategy updates, helping you build systematic advantage in structured markets. #RiskManagement
$BTC {currencycard:spot}(BTC_USDT) ‌$ETH {currencycard:spot}(ETH_USDT) ‌