过眼云烟

Why do I think BTC is starting a new round of rebound?
Why do I shout out the bizarre remarks that a part of the altcoin season, which goes against common sense, might begin?
You all love to look at the weekly chart, so today I will share my personal insights on the weekly chart of BTC.
First, let’s talk about the external factors.
First: There are currently no fundamental macro factors that will drive BTC below 90,000; at least, we cannot see it within this year.
The U.S. stock market has been bearish for many years, and those big players and financial groups have predicted a downturn in the U.S. stock market many times, but none have shown the courage like those who shorted the Hong Kong stock market and crushed the yen back then. As long as the U.S. dollar hegemony does not collapse, it is basically unlikely that the U.S. stock market will replicate the financial storm of 2008. Don’t forget, a certain Eastern power is maintaining the status of the dollar from another perspective.
Second: There are no preconditions for the U.S. to raise interest rates in the medium to long term; so what if inflation is high? Capitalists won’t care much about that, as Wall Street's attitude is that if one doesn’t act for oneself, heaven and earth will punish them.
Now back to the BTC weekly chart.
First of all, BTC has not yet broken below the bottom of 48,888 in a bullish trend.
If you want to fantasize about BTC falling below 90,000, you should understand what a head and shoulders top is, right?
Look at my screenshot; those in the know will see it at a glance.
Looking at the weekly structure, 110,000 to 98,400 is the left shoulder of this historical new high, right? When BTC dropped to 98,888, what reason do you have not to bet on the bottom?
You dared to go long at 112,000, you dared to go long at 107,000; why don’t you dare when it gets to around 100,000?
With something like this dropping just below 100,000, can it be recovered so quickly? Can retail investors do that? It's not just me who understands; do institutions and financial tycoons not understand?
With this kind of drop to the bottom of the weekly left shoulder, there is definitely a possibility of a right shoulder rebound structure.
So, as mentioned earlier, if it breaks and holds above 104,460 on the 4-hour chart, the fundamental reason for going to 110,000 is here.
When BTC breaks and holds above 109,000 on the daily chart, and the right shoulder of the weekly structure breaks, doesn't any medium to long-term short position have to wait a bit?
If BTC rises from 98,888 to 110,000, that’s over 10% increase; how much can ETH rise? Don’t forget, it went from 3,055 to over 3,500 last night, right?
So, I say the speculation about this round of the last rise of some altcoins comes from here.
So, what should we do?
Don’t believe others saying to high sell and low buy BTC or ETH right now. Since we are betting on the last round of rebound, just hold onto a bullish direction.
If BTC around 101,400 doesn’t drop down hard over the weekend, then isn’t it mainly about buying on the dip?

#山寨季可能开始了
Brothers, personal opinion, the last round of some altcoins' pump should have started.
BTC's 4-hour chart has tested the previous low twice without breaking it, and the daily chart shows a double bottom with volume recovering. This round of Bitcoin's last rebound may begin.
Reason 1: The investment funds from altcoin projects that previously invested in BTC are likely to have made profits and cashed out. The black swan's needle can only be driven down so deep by large institutional and investor sell-offs. Many people have a misconception that breaking major support requires significant trading volume. Therefore, altcoin projects may profit from BTC and ETH investments, with funds flowing back to pump prices, even long-term underperformers like FIL, Audi, and FET jumped significantly as if they had taken performance-enhancing drugs, starting off strong.
Reason 2: Due to many large holders selling, the burden on BTC's main players has eased, making it much easier to pump. Last night's 4-hour candle showed initial signs with a large bullish body.
Reason 3: Bitcoin's 4-hour chart has broken the bearish trend at 108000, showing signs of further rebound. So if Bitcoin has a chance to pull back to 98800–99500, and it does not break after three attempts, it's a good buying opportunity!! Or wait until Bitcoin breaks below 98800 and then recovers to chase the trend on the right side. If it breaks and fails to recover, just watch. The selling pressure the market faces on the left side is uncertain.
ETH shows signs of a stronger rebound. If Bitcoin tests down three times and breaks below 98800, there is a probability that Ethereum will break the previous low. The battle to defend the 3000 level is crucial; my personal opinion is that it won't break 3000 and will resemble the previous horizontal consolidation around 2100–2800 that lasted a long time.
Bitcoin has short-term support around 102000, near 100500, with 99500–98800 becoming a lifeline. If it falsely breaks and recovers, it could form a triple bottom, and then we just go for it. As for how far the last round of the upward trend can go, I don't know. Anyway, in my personal opinion, if it breaks and stabilizes above 104460 on the 4-hour, there is a high probability it will reach 110000.

Essentials! Aside from price and volume, do not look at any delayed indicators. I will teach you how to find the real support and resistance prices from the crazy drop of BTC.
Lu Xun: Due to the large fluctuations in the crypto market, the time frame below the daily chart can be very misleading; just looking at the 3-day line is enough.
1. First, you need to know that in a market trend, when a continuous series of bullish or bearish candles appears, the first candle of a different color is the so-called limit up or limit down. Among the continuous bullish or bearish candles, the first point is the vacuum area, and the second point is that only the start and end can be considered as resistance or support. You must remember this.
2. The greater the distance the price moves away from the high or low point, and the more contact points on the left and right sides of that price, the stronger the effect of resistance or support.
3. Identify large bearish candles; the larger the volume, the more effective it is. 3. After the big pie broke through 7w3 from 48888, the 3-day line showed a limit up point at 9w1, naturally falling back to a low point of 88736.1. The sell orders were absorbed at point A, reaching a high price of 108366.8 with a limit up price of 104460.
The rebound at point B closed at 98627 during the downward continuation, and for a long time afterward, no K-line closed above and stabilized at 108366.8. This indicates the most active turnover at that price. A single K-line contains many elements, so indicators can only be referenced.
As for the rest, you can draw the closing price or low points of the K-line according to the screenshot ABCDE to obtain the horizontal lines in the screenshot. Then draw the downward trend line to find short-term long and short opportunities.
Returning to the results: The daily line of the big pie stabilized at 98626.9, indicating a short-term stop-loss signal. This price is the core of the bullish trend line at 48888; breaking below will initiate a new round of decline.
The upper pressure levels are 104460 and 106378. When you draw the horizontal lines, you can find that during this round of decline, there exists a vacuum area below this price, so a rebound to this price is not surprising.
If it breaks below 98626.9 for more than 4 hours, the market rebound will be weak. The area around 95800 is just a short-term reference point for rebound, which is the support of the 3-day Vegas channel.
The support prices below are 92759, 91074.6, and 88736.1.
From a technical perspective, participating in contract bottom-fishing between 98400 and 98888.8 is indeed viable; there is increased volume and demand explosion in the 4-hour chart.
A rebound in a market trend will undergo two or three tests of support prices, so just be patient. Either wait to buy near the previous low, or wait near 104460 or 106378 to find short opportunities in a bullish decline.
ETH will send screenshots for reference later.

Share some practical insights and views on BTC and ETH.
First, the conclusion: not even a single interest rate cut can push Bitcoin beyond 116,000; what reason is there to expect new highs? Ethereum dreaming of surpassing 4,800 is simply wishful thinking.
Insights: Hammer candlestick.
In a rising market, when a hammer candlestick appears, if it is a hammer bearish candle and the price is near a resistance high point, it is generally seen as a signal of the peak of this trend. Near the high of the upper shadow or after it breaks the high and falls back, one should short it.
If it is a hammer bullish candle, and the price is running between the upper shadow or fluctuating around the high of the shadow, as long as the closing price of the candlestick does not fall below the closing price of the hammer bullish candle, it is seen as a continuation of the upward trend in the middle of the market, and at the top of the market, it is seen as a signal that the trend will soon reverse, similar to what I previously analyzed about the break of 124,500 and 126,200 and then falling back.
If the hammer candlestick appears at a stage bottom, as long as the price does not fall below the lowest point of the lower shadow, there is a high probability of a wave of upward movement.
During a rise of 116,300 for Bitcoin, you can see from the 4-hour candlestick that when the price is above the closing price of the 4-hour hammer candlestick at a relatively low point, such as 108,400, 109,200, the subsequent spikes can quickly recover, which means that even a single candlestick can convey a message.
In the rising trend of 106,200, as long as the closing price does not fall below 109,200, the point B in the screenshot, Bitcoin will continue to oscillate upwards.
After touching the left-side pressure at 111,300, the pullback low point is rising; therefore, brothers who are short should take profits in batches. Left-side support is at 109,600 and 108,500; only if it falls below 108,500 in 15 minutes will the bears continue to exert strength. Upper pressure levels are 111,300, 112,400, and 113,600.
Ethereum is performing weakly, with upper pressure as shown in the figure. Pay attention to the support levels of 3,828 and 3,804 in the short term, with a short-term boundary point of 3,745 for bulls and bears.
Additionally, as long as Bitcoin closes above 108,500 by tomorrow morning, it's fine; if it falls below, it would be a bearish engulfing on the weekly chart, and that would be a disaster.
In any case, technically, it is a signal for the beginning of a bear market. Whether there will be another opportunity to set long-term shorts between 119,800 and 120,800 before the end of the year depends on whether Trump stirs up trouble. 😁

$BTC $ETH
Why did the large inflow of funds into ETFs lead to a decline instead?
In the financial market, the so-called high-profile purchases are often filled with various traps. Ultimately, this is due to the existence of both off-exchange and on-exchange trading.
For example, major investors A, B, C, D... know an issuer of a stock or token. This issuer wants to list their token or stock on an exchange, but if they do not have sufficient funds themselves, they can only collaborate by raising funds and working with these major investors or institutions.
These investors, after conducting their due diligence, believe that the project is profitable and valuable, and they can obtain a certain amount of chips based on how much funding they provide, which may not necessarily take place on the exchange.
When a person can have multiple wallet addresses, high-profile buying can occur as long as the on-exchange funds remain stationary. The project party can directly transfer an address that contains a certain number of chips to a high-profile investor without the retail investors noticing the outflow of funds. This is decentralization, and wallet addresses can be anonymous. By the time retail investors discover this, the market has crashed, and it's too late.
Many altcoins are boldly listed on exchanges, surrounded by various short-sellings and news about large fund purchases, but in the end, they still harvest retail investors. The investors have already received a certain reward from the issuer, and the losses they incur on the exchange are just for show to the retail investors. Just like those crazy promoters of a certain altcoin.
This involves a fundamental issue: the mutual transfer of large funds, and the banking supervision cannot escape anyone.
In any case, domestically, issuers do not dare to openly engage in these activities. Who knows if your large funds are involved in money laundering? Will the bank freeze your funds? Therefore, they can only slip out and issue altcoins to take advantage of retail investors.
Returning to the market, the previous post on BTC mentioned that breaking through 114500 could only look at 115900, but now it has dropped back again. Can it surge before the interest rate cut?
I don't know, but anyway, around 110579 is the last support for this major rebound. The upper resistance levels are 113400, 114500, and 115900. If it cannot continue to rise after the interest rate cut, look for an opportunity to short.
For ETH, let's see if it can stabilize above 3980, with bullish support at 3910 and 3875 nearby. The upper resistance levels are 4078, 4139, and 4221.

$BTC $ETH
I, Hu Hansan, have returned! My personal views on the medium to long-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
First, the conclusion: ETH4748 has formed a quadruple top, with a daily peak above 4800 marking a threshold, and a daily closing price at the bull top.
BTC123300 has had multiple false breakouts, with 2 daily thresholds; technically, the possibility of a bull top in the market is quite high.
But cherish every opportunity of false breakouts in Bitcoin, as it's a rare feast for the bulls.
Now, regarding short-term views, as there are 3 days left until the interest rate cut, the short-term trend is bullish.
Short-term support is at 113700; if it goes below, the next levels are only 112500 to 112800. If it fails to break above 114500 after 3 tests, be cautious with long positions. The final bull zone for this interest rate cut is between 110400 and 110700.
Conversely, if it stabilizes above 114500, it will continue to push towards 115900.
In the 4-hour chart, 116000 to 120800 is a blank area. As long as the daily closes above 116000, another strong rally will begin without cost, with a high probability of reaching near 120800.
Returning to the long-term view, since Bitcoin has touched above 120,000 each time, the daily bearish candles outnumber the bullish ones, and the trading volume of the bearish candles is larger. Therefore, for brothers who want to position for a long-term short at low multiples, the most suitable prices are three: 120800, 123400, and 125200. As for another interest rate cut by the end of the year breaking the new high, if it drops back again, it would be like smoke rising from the ancestral grave, and the short would simply end, basically announcing the end of the bull market, as there is no pressure above after breaking the new high; why drop back again? Think for yourself.
If this downward channel of lower lows continues to be effective, 104460 becomes the mid-term bull-bear boundary, provided it does not break before the next interest rate cut. If the daily closes below 104460 and does not recover, we may see below 100,000.
Ethereum's comments will include a chart later; 4221 is the most important pivot below 4748 for the second Bitcoin.
Hope the above can help everyone.

$BTC
Emergency reminder, Bitcoin has volume in 15 minutes or a 4-hour close below 104460, don't rush to go long.
The bull-bear dividing point for this round of Bitcoin is in the Vegas channel of the 3-day line, already verified from 48888 to 74500, with the price in the range of 95600 to 97000.
Persistence will ultimately pay off; after Bitcoin broke through the high point of 123300 in 4 hours, it fell back twice after reaching new highs. The large volume at 126200 without an increase indicated a peak judgment, which ultimately became a peak fact.
If you see this, please wait patiently. Bitcoin has not released volume in 4 hours, making it unsuitable for any mainstream spot trading.
If today is Black Friday, the kind where Bitcoin drops sharply, spot trading can go ALL IN on Bitcoin at 95888.
No matter what, if Bitcoin breaks below 104460 and doesn't recover, please wait patiently around 101000, just observe the price and volume-price behavior.
Due to the ETH/BTC exchange rate issue, Ethereum is not performing as weakly as before, because the exchange rate price is relatively far from the top, and big players are greedy for the space for the exchange rate to continue to rise, without strong panic emotions.
However, looking back at the market, the view that the mid-term bull-bear dividing point for Ethereum is around 3595 remains unchanged.

$BTC $PAXG
The pancake meets expectations, the strong line breaks 109500, and there may also be a false breakout at 109500, with a spike near 110600.
Currently, the market is in a small rebound and a fluctuating downward trend. The large volume in 15 minutes is also very deceptive, and the daily line volume and the body of the bearish candle match, indicating that the decline has not yet terminated.
There is a rebound in the ultra-short term, possibly within 2000 points, plus with the upcoming weekend and the middle of the month, the interest rate cut expectations are at the end of the month. Before that, just keep the high-position short positions stable.
Many retail investors only think about making quick money, only playing in altcoins, with high volatility in altcoins, catching one opportunity happily, while losing ten times or even facing liquidation.
PAXG is merely linked to gold, different from the spot gold on the US stock side.
Even strong players like Binance do not have the ability to manipulate pancakes, ETH, and SOL to cut retail investors. If they really dared to do so, the lawsuits in the US are no joke.
For contracts, just doing these three is enough; the contracts of altcoins are basically concentrated in chips, and they can play however they want.

$BTC $ETH
Late night market analysis.
The major coin 109500 has become the lifeline for short-term bulls, while Ethereum around 3595 has become the dividing line between mid-term bulls and bears.
Currently, the major coin shows a head and shoulders pattern after a downward continuation on the 4-hour chart. The 15-minute candlestick needs to fake a breakdown below 109500 and then recover for a buying opportunity, with a target range of horizontal trading around 113400.
If the 4-hour chart breaks below 109500, the market will continue to worsen, likely leading to a downward fluctuation, approaching support levels of 108600 and 107300.
If there is an accelerated decline, there is some left-side support at 104600 to 105200. In extreme market conditions, if it breaks to a new low and quickly recovers, like a spike to the 99500 to 100400 range, that would be the moment to bottom fish.
Ethereum rebounds quickly, but its declines are also fierce, so do not have a fixed mindset when going long.
Currently, there is only some short-term support at 3875; left-side limit orders are easily targeted, and if it spikes down, stop-loss orders may not execute in time.
Near 4220, similar to the major coin's 113400, if it can't break above, it will continue to decline.
Additionally, previously SOL reached 233, and when the leg broke, it was time to run. Although it wasn't the highest point, at least those who went long avoided the previous extreme spike.
All three are showing lower highs and lows, and in a bearish trend, do not go against the trend and look for long opportunities, no matter how far. Although the funding rates for the major coin and SOL have not been very friendly to bears recently, mostly negative, it at least indicates that the major coin's willingness to continue pushing up is not that strong.

$BTC
This is my personal view on short-term and medium to long-term trends of Bitcoin.
First, let's talk about the medium to long-term: a daily close above 114000 is bullish! If it breaks below 108600 on the 4-hour chart and fails to recover, the main trend is down.
Why did it stop falling at 109500 in the short term?
This was the top of the 4-hour consolidation at 108600. Typically, the closing price of the candlestick is used as significant resistance or support, like a limit up or limit down. The highs and lows of the shadows are testing behaviors and can be very deceptive; this is something you must remember.
The short-term consolidation range is between 109500 and 112500. I don’t know how long it will consolidate; if it approaches support and breaks down, look for buying opportunities. If it approaches resistance and breaks through, look for selling opportunities. Don’t trade in the middle; just wait.
Whichever side breaks and holds, trade that side. In the short term, Bitcoin at 108600 is also support. If it breaks below 109500 without a rebound, wait to see how the price behaves around 108600 before participating in long or short trades.
As long as Bitcoin has not broken the bearish trend at 125100, the market will not reverse.
Every major market movement requires a massive amount of buy orders to enter a long-term uptrend, like the one at 74500.
From a medium to long-term perspective, if the Bitcoin trend is still down, the Fibonacci 0.5 between 74500 and 126200, which is around 100500, is a triple bottom. Only when the price reaches this point is it time to load the bullets.
Short-term summary: 1. Bitcoin has a volume breakout at 122500 on the 15-minute chart, and the retest did not break; the next short-term resistance is at 114000 and 115200. As long as the daily closes above 114000, it will continue to rebound.
2. Bitcoin still hasn’t been able to break above 122500; look down at 109500 and 108600. Only if it breaks below 108600 will it continue to decline and enter a medium to long-term adjustment mode, approaching support at 106500.
Note, breaking below 108600 does not necessarily mean it will go to 100000 immediately; after a period of decline, it may enter a consolidation phase, plus if the price breaks the bearish trend at 125100, the market may welcome a phase of rebound.

$BTC $ETH
Witness a new chapter in history, am I one of the few who first analyzed the peak of this Bitcoin?
Do you still dare to look at 130k and 150k?
Can we buy the dip now? How can I guarantee that this is the bottom? Such black swans are rare and cannot be sought after.
When I mentioned the initial signs of Bitcoin's peak, you didn’t have the time, so there’s nothing I can do.
For spot Dogecoin or other mainstream coins you are optimistic about, just buy in batches at the lower edge of the consolidation zone during horizontal consolidation.
At least I didn’t call anyone to go long during the decline, I can only say, good luck to you.

$BTC $ETH
This wave of Bitcoin will take you to the top; last time I told you to buy the dip, how great is that?
But I estimate many of you think I'm a fraud; probably not many people are shorting Bitcoin with me.
I don't care; I just share my subjective views with you. Trust me, and you can make money; just help me with more likes. If you shorted during the last rise and hit your stop loss, don't blame me.
How does Bitcoin look right now?
When trading, if you are not spot trading, try not to use weekly logic to guide your short to medium-term thinking; focusing on the 4-hour chart is enough, with the daily chart as a supplement.
From the daily perspective, after breaking 114800, there is a large vacuum area. What is a vacuum area? It's a one-sided market. The rise is rapid, and the fall will also be fierce.
118300 is a short-term support level; I don’t know how strong it is. This time, the one-sided rally hasn’t accumulated a lot of positions; we can only look for possible supports from Fibonacci, which is not absolute.
117300, 115300~114800; the latter may not come immediately; it could be mid-month or end-month, provided that 118300 can hold, and 119500 can be reclaimed.
As for Ethereum, when it broke below 4500 from 4754, it should be shorted on the rebound. So, trading is something that requires patience.
The support is still the previous support: below 4100, at 4040, 3960, 3875. I don't know if it can reach those levels, but a period of decline must be followed by consolidation; we will see then.
I don't fantasize about Bitcoin reaching 130k or 150k, or Ethereum reaching above 4800 or 5000; I only do what I can see.

$BTC
The new structure of Bitcoin is here, waiting for new trading opportunities.
Since the bullish trend of Bitcoin at 109100 has ended, we should focus on the bearish trend of 126200.
While thinking about going short, I hesitated when I saw others calling for 130,000 and 150,000. I didn't dare to short above 124600.
How does the market look currently? Isn't it normal for a downward trend to lead to sideways consolidation?
In the short term, there is a high probability of sideways consolidation between 119800 or 120600 and 122600 or 123300, making 123300 the current dividing line between bulls and bears, while 119800 serves as the critical point of this one-sided market.
From a 4-hour perspective, 126200 is the temporary top. Isn't it clear that after reaching a new high, it fell back down? Some people keep selling at the new high; they don't look at 130,000 or 150,000; they are only focused on what they can see.
Even if Bitcoin briefly breaks the bearish trend at 126200, the 4-hour candlestick has already indicated that even if it goes to 125000 or even breaks a new high, there are still big players selling.
For 122600 and 123300, if it breaks and falls back, go short; whether the latter can reach it is unknown; I'm not a fortune teller.
A false breakout below 120500 that dips to around 119800 and then recovers is fine for going long, with a stop loss at 119800 as the 15-minute candle breaks.
As for Ethereum, dropping over 300 points in one night, any mention of MACD crossing the zero line on the daily chart is misleading. If it really wants to reach 4800, it wouldn't have closed with a long bearish candlestick on the daily chart.

$BTC $ETH
When the big pie drops, there are still countless people choosing to buy the dip.
This time, similar to last year's big pie, which dropped from around 102700 to 97100 in one go during the US trading hours, then rebounded to 98300 before dropping again, can't say it's exactly the same, but from the perspective of trading methods, it's strikingly similar.
As long as the 15-minute K-line does not form a sideways structure, buying the dip will be painfully hit by a spike.
Currently visible left-side support levels are 120800 and 119700. If a spike is still to come, 119100 may see a certain rebound.
Currently, there is a panic sentiment in Ethereum; the altcoins truly live up to their reputation, running fast as well. As for where the spike will go, it depends on the level of panic sentiment, 4460? 4416? Or 4370?
This wave of Ethereum has also been quite fierce, going up to 4754 and triggering a large number of shorts below 4400, and also killing a wave of longs above 4600 who wanted to see 4800 without running away.
To profit from the volatility of Ethereum, one must endure its risks. 😂

$BTC
Bitcoin's trend line has broken at 109100, starting a new bearish market at 126200.
It has reached 122600, and currently, we cannot go long. If you want to make a short-term long, wait for it to break down and recover or look for a narrow range consolidation.
Currently, my view is to rebound and look for bearish positions. If Bitcoin is weak, it won't go above 123400 or 124100, and it will only go down to 120800.
Today is Tuesday. If it can rebound to around 124600 in the next two to three days, then it's time to close the shorts, with a stop loss at 125100.
Regarding Ethereum, my personal view is to wait a bit more. Look at the weekly chart of Ethereum, and you'll find a pattern: at the end of a big bullish market, it falls for two weeks, then rebounds for two weeks. After two weeks of rebound, the bulls often exhaust, so I’m considering shorting both Bitcoin and Ethereum next week, provided it closes with a bullish candle this week.
For Ethereum, I’m watching if it can reach between 4775 and 4796; if it breaks 4800, set a stop loss, as that would be a narrow range, with a significant risk-reward ratio.
If it hits the stop loss, observe and short on the right side when it comes back down.

$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin's 4-hour bearish pattern is beginning to show.
The range between the highs created in the 4-hour chart is narrowing, indicating signals of exhaustion from the bulls, but the bears have not yet taken action. The long upper shadow is due to certain selling pressure on the spot market, and the 4-hour MACD is showing a top divergence, along with a divergence in volume and price.
It could either be that the climb is preparing to peak, or it could fall back to 126200 to form a double top, let Bitcoin cool off at the mountain top for a while.
The intraday short-term support is still around 123400, and the liquidation heatmap shows some liquidity between 123400 and 123700.
If 123400 can hold, there should be a small rebound, and if it goes lower, we can only look at around 122600 and 120800.
The major bearish trend has not yet been completely confirmed, so everyone should be patient.
Subsequent potential shorting opportunities exist at 124600 or 125500 or the previous high; if it breaks down and falls back, then short. The 15-minute K-line high point at the time of breaking through the previous three resistance levels can be used as a stop loss, which can be slightly adjusted upwards.
Alternatively, if Bitcoin stops playing tricks, a rebound short can be made after breaking below 109100, the bullish trend line.
Ethereum's bullish momentum is relatively strong, and the bears are scared off, but there is a potential double top divergence trend in the 4-hour chart, which may lead to narrow fluctuations before a reversal. The intraday support is at 4605, with pressure above at 4717 and around 4775.

$BTC
Looking at the pancake this way, isn't it very clear? Technical analysis isn't worth much.
For short-term trading, if the subsequent candlestick closes above 125400 in 5 minutes or 15 minutes, dare to chase the long position; if it falls back, then set a stop loss. Where it can go, I don't know; the bull doesn't speak of a top.
Anyway, there are only two supports for short-term trading: 124200 and 123300. Whether they can hold is uncertain.
Alternatively, if the subsequent candlestick breaks below 124200 or 123300 with volume and can't rebound, then the short-term 125877 is the top of a large consolidation area.
Trading is like this; it's not ambiguous; just wait.
If it breaks below the support but then closes above, go long; set the stop loss at the previous low.
If it breaks below the support and can't rebound, just chase the short position on the right side, with the stop loss set at the high point of the 15-minute or 1-hour candlestick that broke the support.

The pancake has already reminded, the short position on the left side 122700～123300 should be abandoned.
Let's wait and see, it's highly likely that the new high won't be stopped, and we will wait to see if it breaks the new high and then drops down or goes sideways for distribution.
If Ethereum stabilizes at 4559, the bears should honestly admit defeat, as it hasn't even reached 4416, so open positions with stop-loss; the iron-headed child will eventually be exposed.

$BTC $ETH
The market has come down, and there are 122700 open short positions, so let's defend the cost for now.
If the 15-minute candlestick can reclaim and stabilize at 121995, we can consider exiting; the cost defense is likely to be broken.
After all, a slight drop will be pulled back, and if the price breaks 112700, the short positions on the left side from 122700 to 123300 can be abandoned. Today, there is a significant amount of liquidity between 124000 and 125000 on the liquidation heatmap, and there is a probability that it will not consolidate next week, with a good chance of seizing liquidity near the new highs.
Conversely, if the 15-minute candlestick breaks below 121650, the first target is to close at 120800, and the second target is near 119650.
Ethereum has short-term support at 4416 and 4375; if the latter can be reached, those who are trapped in shorts can consider exiting for new structures.