神冥bit
602 Posts
神冥bit
无论多牛的技术分析在贪婪面前都不堪一击
High-Frequency Trader
3.5 Years
8 Following
245 Followers
522 Liked
Posts
All
Quotes
PINNED
Binance friend chat feature
Tap the scan icon in the top right corner
Tap the scan icon in the top right corner
It has been more than half a year since the last time we tested the daily EMA200. Since last year when price broke below it, it has been tested 4 times at the daily level, and all four times the breakout failed and initiated a downtrend.
Whether this time is a return to the upside or the start of a new round of decline depends on how the market behaves next.$ETH
Whether this time is a return to the upside or the start of a new round of decline depends on how the market behaves next.$ETH
Still can’t sleep. Since the afternoon around 64,000 didn’t break in, that’s fine. But at night you said we would hold steady at 65,600 and make a right-side move—and it didn’t happen. Watching this really drained me.
Looking at the daily chart in the picture, the EMA200 level formed a big bullish candle body that closed back up—calling it “bulls are here” wouldn’t be an exaggeration. So, is it that it’s still a bit too early to say “the market is back to being bullish”? But tonight’s rally doesn’t seem to have any strong catalyst either. Relying on ETF fund inflows to suddenly push the market up by 5,000 points also seems unlikely. From a technical perspective, even though we’ve held above 65,600, which is the key resistance, the pull-up is happening pretty aggressively, don’t you think? For now, I’m not shorting and I’m not going long—just watching and waiting. $BTC
Looking at the daily chart in the picture, the EMA200 level formed a big bullish candle body that closed back up—calling it “bulls are here” wouldn’t be an exaggeration. So, is it that it’s still a bit too early to say “the market is back to being bullish”? But tonight’s rally doesn’t seem to have any strong catalyst either. Relying on ETF fund inflows to suddenly push the market up by 5,000 points also seems unlikely. From a technical perspective, even though we’ve held above 65,600, which is the key resistance, the pull-up is happening pretty aggressively, don’t you think? For now, I’m not shorting and I’m not going long—just watching and waiting. $BTC
$BTC Yesterday’s rally peaked and then pulled back; it has already fallen below the 64500 support level. I originally thought that 64500 would act as a retest support before testing the 65600 resistance. Next, we’ll look at support at 63855. As long as BTC can hold that area and the structure of the rebound isn’t broken, there’s still a chance to push up again and break above the prior high, around 65000. If tonight’s rebound reaches the prior high at 65036, watch out for whether it triggers a second test and starts a downside move. The key resistance overhead is 65600. If price can break above 65600, the upside room will be even larger.
If on the 1-hour timeframe and above price breaks below 63855, then we’ll look at 63300. As long as 63300 support doesn’t break, the uptrend from this move is still intact. $ETH
If on the 1-hour timeframe and above price breaks below 63855, then we’ll look at 63300. As long as 63300 support doesn’t break, the uptrend from this move is still intact. $ETH
What Hynix talked about this afternoon is pretty much in line with what I expected. If it breaks below 1155, it should go down to find a bottom at 1091 and 1056. But I still didn’t dare to execute this right-side order—I hesitated, mainly because I’m worried that when the US stock market opens, it’ll spike up on a needle. So I didn’t get in 😅. Oh well, I’ll look for another opportunity tomorrow.$SKHYNIX
神冥bit
·
--
In the picture, Haixforce (Hynix) really showed something after this 1260 fakeout—it's basically doing a high-altitude drop on the spot.
Currently it has directly fallen to 1162, and it’s now testing the key support at 1155 again. If it can hold at 1155 without breaking, the uptrend is still intact. The resistance above is 1208; once it breaks 1208, the pullback is over.
The key support is 1155. If it breaks below, it will go to 1091, 1056$SKHY
Currently it has directly fallen to 1162, and it’s now testing the key support at 1155 again. If it can hold at 1155 without breaking, the uptrend is still intact. The resistance above is 1208; once it breaks 1208, the pullback is over.
The key support is 1155. If it breaks below, it will go to 1091, 1056$SKHY
In the picture, Haixforce (Hynix) really showed something after this 1260 fakeout—it's basically doing a high-altitude drop on the spot.
Currently it has directly fallen to 1162, and it’s now testing the key support at 1155 again. If it can hold at 1155 without breaking, the uptrend is still intact. The resistance above is 1208; once it breaks 1208, the pullback is over.
The key support is 1155. If it breaks below, it will go to 1091, 1056$SKHY
Currently it has directly fallen to 1162, and it’s now testing the key support at 1155 again. If it can hold at 1155 without breaking, the uptrend is still intact. The resistance above is 1208; once it breaks 1208, the pullback is over.
The key support is 1155. If it breaks below, it will go to 1091, 1056$SKHY
Today’s market outlook analysis
$BTC : Last night’s surge was really unexpected—it directly took all the liquidity around 64,500, but it still couldn’t break through and hold above 64,500. Now it has already pulled back to the support below at 64,000 and is attempting another breakout. In the “fourth sister” level view, as long as it holds above 64,500, we can see another push higher toward the previous high around 65,500. But if 64,500 can’t be passed, then it will start to retrace and fall.
Below support is 63,855. If tonight’s big BTC comes down, the best scenario is to use 63,855 as support and then test 64,500 again. But if 63,855 breaks, then it should move down toward around 63,300. If it also breaks below the 63,300 area, then this rebound is considered over, and a new round of downside will begin.
$BTC : Last night’s surge was really unexpected—it directly took all the liquidity around 64,500, but it still couldn’t break through and hold above 64,500. Now it has already pulled back to the support below at 64,000 and is attempting another breakout. In the “fourth sister” level view, as long as it holds above 64,500, we can see another push higher toward the previous high around 65,500. But if 64,500 can’t be passed, then it will start to retrace and fall.
Below support is 63,855. If tonight’s big BTC comes down, the best scenario is to use 63,855 as support and then test 64,500 again. But if 63,855 breaks, then it should move down toward around 63,300. If it also breaks below the 63,300 area, then this rebound is considered over, and a new round of downside will begin.
Today's market outlook analysis
$BTC last night tried to break through 63300, but it still failed to hold and continued to fall. From chart 1 on the 4-hour timeframe, 63300 is not being able to hold up; it is still in a downtrend. Also, on the 4-hour chart, above 63300 it looks like a big mountain—strongly suppressing price. If the 4-hour timeframe can break through and hold 63300, then it may open the way for a move into the 63800–64000 range.
Below, support is at 62500–62227. If Btc keeps dropping, we’ll watch whether it can form a bottom here and then break through 63300 to bring the next round of upward movement. However, I think the chances are not very big, because the liquidity below is too dense. It feels like unless that lower liquidity is taken, even if price rises, it won’t go very far. If 62227 breaks down, then watch 61500 and 60800.
Chart 2: In the broader direction, it looks like a head-and-shoulders top followed by a decline.
$BTC last night tried to break through 63300, but it still failed to hold and continued to fall. From chart 1 on the 4-hour timeframe, 63300 is not being able to hold up; it is still in a downtrend. Also, on the 4-hour chart, above 63300 it looks like a big mountain—strongly suppressing price. If the 4-hour timeframe can break through and hold 63300, then it may open the way for a move into the 63800–64000 range.
Below, support is at 62500–62227. If Btc keeps dropping, we’ll watch whether it can form a bottom here and then break through 63300 to bring the next round of upward movement. However, I think the chances are not very big, because the liquidity below is too dense. It feels like unless that lower liquidity is taken, even if price rises, it won’t go very far. If 62227 breaks down, then watch 61500 and 60800.
Chart 2: In the broader direction, it looks like a head-and-shoulders top followed by a decline.
Even if Micron/“Hynix” in the chart continues to rise next week, it would probably first pull back. The 1155 support level has already been tested twice; if it tests again, it will most likely break directly through. You can see supports around 1100 and 1056 below.
If 1155 breaks on an hourly level or higher, there is a good chance it could reach there. But it’s also possible that tomorrow Monday at 8:00 AM there is a gap up and a breakout toward the 1260 resistance level, followed by a pullback downward. So it all depends on whether 1155 breaks or not. For those who want to be cautious, you can wait to check again after the Korean stock market opens tomorrow at 8:00 AM. $SKHYNIX
If 1155 breaks on an hourly level or higher, there is a good chance it could reach there. But it’s also possible that tomorrow Monday at 8:00 AM there is a gap up and a breakout toward the 1260 resistance level, followed by a pullback downward. So it all depends on whether 1155 breaks or not. For those who want to be cautious, you can wait to check again after the Korean stock market opens tomorrow at 8:00 AM. $SKHYNIX
In the chart, the pressure level of 1695 above the Sandisk is being rejected. Next week, it will most likely pull back toward the support level around 1500 below before continuing higher.
However, if 1695 breaks effectively, it will directly move toward around 1800.$SNDK
However, if 1695 breaks effectively, it will directly move toward around 1800.$SNDK
Today's market outlook analysis
$BTC The trend line shown in the chart is currently being resisted around 63,300 and is consolidating. We’ll see whether, in the early hours tonight, it can break above 63,300 and the downward trend line drawn in the chart. If it breaks, it can move to test the resistance zone of 63,800–64,000. If 63,300 cannot be overcome and price continues to consolidate along the downward trend line to the downside, things could become a bit risky next week.
Support below is in the 63,800–63,500 range. If BTC drops again, we’ll see whether it will pull back and hold the support, then continue upward and break above 63,300 to capture the liquidity above. In Figure 2, if the support at 62,227 breaks, then the liquidity around 61,000 is likely to be taken in full, leading to a direct pullback to the 60,900 support level. $ETH
$BTC The trend line shown in the chart is currently being resisted around 63,300 and is consolidating. We’ll see whether, in the early hours tonight, it can break above 63,300 and the downward trend line drawn in the chart. If it breaks, it can move to test the resistance zone of 63,800–64,000. If 63,300 cannot be overcome and price continues to consolidate along the downward trend line to the downside, things could become a bit risky next week.
Support below is in the 63,800–63,500 range. If BTC drops again, we’ll see whether it will pull back and hold the support, then continue upward and break above 63,300 to capture the liquidity above. In Figure 2, if the support at 62,227 breaks, then the liquidity around 61,000 is likely to be taken in full, leading to a direct pullback to the 60,900 support level. $ETH
$BTC This morning it bounced back again to around 63,800 and met resistance. It was also announced publicly again that everyone could go short around 63,800 because it’s a downtrend. When the bounce reaches a suitable level, that’s the chance to short. If you followed, you’ve already captured over 1,000 points in profit.
At 7 a.m. I also called the community to enter a short at 63,600—again entering at the highest point. Currently, all positions have been closed after taking profit, locking in about 1,000 points.
Follow me—I'll update the market movement on an occasional, not strictly timed basis each day. $ETH
At 7 a.m. I also called the community to enter a short at 63,600—again entering at the highest point. Currently, all positions have been closed after taking profit, locking in about 1,000 points.
Follow me—I'll update the market movement on an occasional, not strictly timed basis each day. $ETH
Today’s Market Analysis
$BTC At the moment, this wave of decline is being supported and bouncing off the 62820 support level. Previously, I thought this 62820 support was not that important—I assumed the price would break straight through and drop to around 62227 to form a bottom and then rebound.
Now looking at the chart’s next movement: the market is bouncing again to test the 63833 resistance level. If it can’t break through here, then the decline that’s supposed to happen will still happen. On the 4-hour timeframe, if price can break above and hold firm at 63833, then it can move on to test 64500. If it breaks 64500, it could bring a further rally—but I’m not expecting a very large one unless some major positive news appears. For now, the funding rate for BTC is also a bit too high.
In a downtrend, rallies are opportunities to go short. Within today, if it rebounds to around 63800, that’s a good time to consider short entries. Set your stop-loss properly. If you have profits, remember to set a trailing move-to-breakeven.
In Diagram 2, the bigger-picture direction is still bearish, based on a head-and-shoulders top pattern decline.
$BTC At the moment, this wave of decline is being supported and bouncing off the 62820 support level. Previously, I thought this 62820 support was not that important—I assumed the price would break straight through and drop to around 62227 to form a bottom and then rebound.
Now looking at the chart’s next movement: the market is bouncing again to test the 63833 resistance level. If it can’t break through here, then the decline that’s supposed to happen will still happen. On the 4-hour timeframe, if price can break above and hold firm at 63833, then it can move on to test 64500. If it breaks 64500, it could bring a further rally—but I’m not expecting a very large one unless some major positive news appears. For now, the funding rate for BTC is also a bit too high.
In a downtrend, rallies are opportunities to go short. Within today, if it rebounds to around 63800, that’s a good time to consider short entries. Set your stop-loss properly. If you have profits, remember to set a trailing move-to-breakeven.
In Diagram 2, the bigger-picture direction is still bearish, based on a head-and-shoulders top pattern decline.
$BTC Yesterday I kept saying that everyone should pay attention to this resistance level 63800, and I also mentioned several times that you can short around 63800. Because at the 63800 level, the risk-reward ratio for going short is still quite good—those who followed the shorts also managed to lock in a profit of around 1,000 points.
Follow me for irregular updates on the market走势 every day.$ETH
Follow me for irregular updates on the market走势 every day.$ETH
The big pie trend shown in the chart still couldn’t break through and hold steady around 63,800. The market action is very clear as well. Next, it should go to around 62,227 to find a bottom.$BTC
$BTC This morning we talked about it—couldn’t stay steady around 63800, so we shouldn’t continue to look for longs. At the moment, it has already pulled back to around 63800 and is now testing the support below: the 63160 prior low.
If you paid attention to the chart, you could actually choose to short when the pullback reached around 63800 this morning as well—the risk-reward is still quite good, because we’re still in a downtrend.
From the current market picture, I still expect tonight’s decline. At the very least, we should see the support at 62227 below to look for a bottom. For a more aggressive approach, you can take a small position and place a short-term short around 63800, but make sure to set a stop loss. More conservatively, you can wait and decide after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
If you are currently looking to go long on the downside, pay attention to whether price can hold firm around 63800. If it holds, then it can test 64500. If there’s a breakout and a W-bottom forms below 64500, then it would confirm and could bring about a burst of upward movement.
For shorts, pay attention to whether the prior low at 63160 below breaks. If it breaks, then we would need to look for a bottom around 62227. #BTC走势分析
If you paid attention to the chart, you could actually choose to short when the pullback reached around 63800 this morning as well—the risk-reward is still quite good, because we’re still in a downtrend.
From the current market picture, I still expect tonight’s decline. At the very least, we should see the support at 62227 below to look for a bottom. For a more aggressive approach, you can take a small position and place a short-term short around 63800, but make sure to set a stop loss. More conservatively, you can wait and decide after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
If you are currently looking to go long on the downside, pay attention to whether price can hold firm around 63800. If it holds, then it can test 64500. If there’s a breakout and a W-bottom forms below 64500, then it would confirm and could bring about a burst of upward movement.
For shorts, pay attention to whether the prior low at 63160 below breaks. If it breaks, then we would need to look for a bottom around 62227. #BTC走势分析
神冥bit
·
--
BearishToday's Market Analysis
$BTC has currently fallen back to the previous low of 63160. For now, a double bottom seems to be forming, but the market is still in a downtrend. On the hourly chart, since the key level has not been broken yet, it will likely break down and continue to fall afterward.
Within today, if the price can regain and stand above 63800 on the one-hour timeframe or higher, it could stop the decline in the short term and then test the 64500 resistance. Once 64500 is broken, the double bottom at 63160 would be confirmed, and then the market would likely move on to test the previous high at 65480.
But the key point is this: if 63800 cannot be reclaimed, the overall chart remains in a downtrend. As time passes and the price keeps consolidating around 63160 without breaking above 63800, there is a very high probability that it will break down directly and continue falling. Since it is currently a downtrend, if you are looking to go long, first pay attention to 63800 as the resistance level—this has already been tested for the second time at the 64500 resistance level in the past.
Now look at the support at 63160. If the price breaks below it on the one-hour timeframe or higher, then we would likely head to 62228 to find a bottom. For the bigger picture in Chart 2, I still see a head-and-shoulders top reversal indicating a bearish move. Combined with the unfavorable market conditions in previous Augustes, the larger volatility should start after the 15th, beginning next week.
Chart 3: I currently hold short positions with an average price of 65200, as well as the community trades from the 10th. I’m still holding them. Besides closing part of the position, the rest of the long-term positions remain held. $ETH
$BTC has currently fallen back to the previous low of 63160. For now, a double bottom seems to be forming, but the market is still in a downtrend. On the hourly chart, since the key level has not been broken yet, it will likely break down and continue to fall afterward.
Within today, if the price can regain and stand above 63800 on the one-hour timeframe or higher, it could stop the decline in the short term and then test the 64500 resistance. Once 64500 is broken, the double bottom at 63160 would be confirmed, and then the market would likely move on to test the previous high at 65480.
But the key point is this: if 63800 cannot be reclaimed, the overall chart remains in a downtrend. As time passes and the price keeps consolidating around 63160 without breaking above 63800, there is a very high probability that it will break down directly and continue falling. Since it is currently a downtrend, if you are looking to go long, first pay attention to 63800 as the resistance level—this has already been tested for the second time at the 64500 resistance level in the past.
Now look at the support at 63160. If the price breaks below it on the one-hour timeframe or higher, then we would likely head to 62228 to find a bottom. For the bigger picture in Chart 2, I still see a head-and-shoulders top reversal indicating a bearish move. Combined with the unfavorable market conditions in previous Augustes, the larger volatility should start after the 15th, beginning next week.
Chart 3: I currently hold short positions with an average price of 65200, as well as the community trades from the 10th. I’m still holding them. Besides closing part of the position, the rest of the long-term positions remain held. $ETH
Today's Market Analysis
$BTC has currently fallen back to the previous low of 63160. For now, a double bottom seems to be forming, but the market is still in a downtrend. On the hourly chart, since the key level has not been broken yet, it will likely break down and continue to fall afterward.
Within today, if the price can regain and stand above 63800 on the one-hour timeframe or higher, it could stop the decline in the short term and then test the 64500 resistance. Once 64500 is broken, the double bottom at 63160 would be confirmed, and then the market would likely move on to test the previous high at 65480.
But the key point is this: if 63800 cannot be reclaimed, the overall chart remains in a downtrend. As time passes and the price keeps consolidating around 63160 without breaking above 63800, there is a very high probability that it will break down directly and continue falling. Since it is currently a downtrend, if you are looking to go long, first pay attention to 63800 as the resistance level—this has already been tested for the second time at the 64500 resistance level in the past.
Now look at the support at 63160. If the price breaks below it on the one-hour timeframe or higher, then we would likely head to 62228 to find a bottom. For the bigger picture in Chart 2, I still see a head-and-shoulders top reversal indicating a bearish move. Combined with the unfavorable market conditions in previous Augustes, the larger volatility should start after the 15th, beginning next week.
Chart 3: I currently hold short positions with an average price of 65200, as well as the community trades from the 10th. I’m still holding them. Besides closing part of the position, the rest of the long-term positions remain held. $ETH
$BTC has currently fallen back to the previous low of 63160. For now, a double bottom seems to be forming, but the market is still in a downtrend. On the hourly chart, since the key level has not been broken yet, it will likely break down and continue to fall afterward.
Within today, if the price can regain and stand above 63800 on the one-hour timeframe or higher, it could stop the decline in the short term and then test the 64500 resistance. Once 64500 is broken, the double bottom at 63160 would be confirmed, and then the market would likely move on to test the previous high at 65480.
But the key point is this: if 63800 cannot be reclaimed, the overall chart remains in a downtrend. As time passes and the price keeps consolidating around 63160 without breaking above 63800, there is a very high probability that it will break down directly and continue falling. Since it is currently a downtrend, if you are looking to go long, first pay attention to 63800 as the resistance level—this has already been tested for the second time at the 64500 resistance level in the past.
Now look at the support at 63160. If the price breaks below it on the one-hour timeframe or higher, then we would likely head to 62228 to find a bottom. For the bigger picture in Chart 2, I still see a head-and-shoulders top reversal indicating a bearish move. Combined with the unfavorable market conditions in previous Augustes, the larger volatility should start after the 15th, beginning next week.
Chart 3: I currently hold short positions with an average price of 65200, as well as the community trades from the 10th. I’m still holding them. Besides closing part of the position, the rest of the long-term positions remain held. $ETH
The blue arrows I marked in the chart: ETH will only trigger a daily-level decline when there is a daily-level bearish candle with a solid body that closes below the EMA50. $ETH
I bought a short at the average price of 63,800 on the big pancake, and the position has already been stopped out for loss. At first I thought the stop-out would only happen before the CPI data came out. Right now I only have one remaining Ethereum short position at an average price of 1,915.
Looking at the big pancake’s upcoming market, the current rebound is still capped around 64,500, forming a small double top. Now it’s falling again to retest the 63,800 support. If it can hold above 63,800 support again, there’s a chance to break through 64,500 and then get another push higher.
But if 63,800 breaks down again, this rebound move is over. To continue, it would likely go test the previous low at 63,160. From there, if it can hold 63,160, a double bottom could form, and you could try going long. However, if 63,160 breaks, don’t keep looking for longs. If the price then breaks the previous low of 63,160, it should move toward around 62,300 next.$BTC
Looking at the big pancake’s upcoming market, the current rebound is still capped around 64,500, forming a small double top. Now it’s falling again to retest the 63,800 support. If it can hold above 63,800 support again, there’s a chance to break through 64,500 and then get another push higher.
But if 63,800 breaks down again, this rebound move is over. To continue, it would likely go test the previous low at 63,160. From there, if it can hold 63,160, a double bottom could form, and you could try going long. However, if 63,160 breaks, don’t keep looking for longs. If the price then breaks the previous low of 63,160, it should move toward around 62,300 next.$BTC
神冥bit
·
--
BearishFrom the chart, after taking down the lower 63,300 liquidity last night, there was a bounce. Currently, the bounce has reached the resistance level around 63,800. In a downtrend, bounces are an opportunity to go short.
Now you can still short in the 63,800 resistance zone. Set a stop loss of 500 points, and first look for around 62,300. Tonight at 8:00 there is CPI data—everyone please manage risk. #BTC
Now you can still short in the 63,800 resistance zone. Set a stop loss of 500 points, and first look for around 62,300. Tonight at 8:00 there is CPI data—everyone please manage risk. #BTC
Log in to explore more content