Proekt_73

BTC formed a local "Bearish wedge" and started working through it. It’s amusing, but its target is roughly the same as the almost-completed target of the "Double top" at $82,795. The difference is minimal.

On the 30-minute timeframe, we see that for the fourth time already, as of September 23, the potential high markers on this timeframe have been perfectly worked out. We warned about these markers.

As a result, although the structure of rising lows and highs from yesterday’s low has not yet been broken—about the "bear trap" threatening the bulls, you can probably forget. And it’s more reasonable to talk either about a potential "Double bottom" or, alternatively, about the continuation of the decline.

For the bears, the key story is still the same: it’s necessary to break the sustained uptrends on the 30-minute and 45-minute timeframe. This will open the way to new lows.

While preparing the post, BTC showed a Strong signal for a potential low on the 5-minute timeframe (but in the end it did not hold at the candle close—this is very rare, but it does happen). Taking into account the liquidity zone test on the 30-minute timeframe, you can expect a move toward a retest of the breakout from the bearish pattern.

Important events for the crypto market on September 25 from the economic calendar.

Today is the key day of the week by macro data. And markets may start to “storm” already within this hour.

Schedule:

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — Orders for durable goods and core durable goods orders in the US for August. Important for assessing business activity and demand conditions in the US economy.
❗️- 17:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 19:00 Astana time — University of Michigan data block for September:
-- Expected inflation.
-- US consumer inflation expectations index for the next 5 years.
-- Consumer expectations index.
-- Consumer sentiment index.
This is an important set of figures for assessing inflation expectations and the mood of the American consumer.

BTC and ETH have moved into a steady downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe. By the way, #HYPE has also switched to a downtrend on this timeframe—symbolic that on the day of listing on Binance’s spot market (listing on a top exchange is a good time for distribution).

As of now, 12 assets out of the TOP-200 have moved into a downtrend on this timeframe, but the presence of #BTC and #ETH in the list significantly increases the importance of this signal.

The baseline and additional targets, the level of potential breakdown, and liquidity zones are shown in the screenshots.

For speculation, the market is giving more and more signals for short scenarios, but for the short we still expect an opportunity to add specifically on a bounce, in order to bring the trade to break-even from the current level of 75 610,24$.

Important events for the crypto market on September 24 from the economic calendar.

Today is a relatively quiet day, the third most important day of the week (first is Friday, second is Wednesday—and it already proved it). In the morning, decisions from the central banks of Sweden and Switzerland on the interest rate were already released—important due to the role of the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc in the calculation of the US Dollar Index (DXY). In both cases—pauses.

Schedule for the rest of the day:

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — Number of initial unemployment benefit claims and the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the USA. Important for assessing the resilience of the US labor market.
- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — Balance of the US current account for Q2. Important for assessing the external balance of the US economy.
❗️- 23:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 01:30 of the new day in Astana — Balance of the US Fed.

We show what the current results of the bearish impulse look like on the crypto market in this hour. A slice from P73 CryptoMarket Monitor, for the TOP-200 crypto assets:

- on the 1-hour TF, another 15 assets have shifted into a sustained downtrend,
- on the 2-hour TF, 69 assets have shifted into a sustained downtrend, including #BTС and #ETH,
- on the 4-hour TF, 22 assets have shifted into a sustained downtrend, including #AVAX, #BNB, #LINK.

The monitor provides an auto forecast with a high probability of the market continuing its downward move.

Right now, it doesn’t look like a long squeeze. It looks more like a correction—at least the pump-and-rise from September 16. It’s hard to say more until the price of #BTC holds above the level of 75 761$. Which, according to our assessment, separates the bearish and bullish markets. BUT taking into account the fact that a number of assets, including top ones (BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.), shifted into a sustained uptrend during the week—now prices below 75 761$ - are no longer in the bearish market zone, but in the zone of opportunities for long-term purchases.

In the new hour, BTC shifted into a stable downtrend immediately on the 2.5-hour timeframe. And, according to statistics—let’s remind ourselves of this—it most often leads to a stable downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe as well, which for us is the trigger for shorts.

Basic targets: $84,427, $83,597, $82,768. The potential breakdown level: $86,501. As we can see, the third target overlaps with the full target of the “Double Top.”

At the moment, the price broke through an important horizontal level on the 1-hour timeframe at $84,132, which opens the way for an impulse up to the next level at $82,790. But from the Strong signal area on the 5-minute timeframe and the liquidity zone $83,886-$84,064$ - we can see a reaction from buyers. They are trying to defend the rise.

Right now, we’d like to see at least a retest of the “neck line” on the “Double Top,” which is yesterday’s low at $85,114. And to add to the short there. Given the three “Loya” marks on the 1-hour timeframe and the Strong signal of a potential high on the chart of stablecoins capitalization (USDT+USDC), it looks realistic to expect a move higher.

Ideally, it would be good to see a local extreme, like a Strong signal of a potential high on the 5-minute timeframe.

Stablecoin dominance USDT+USDC for now is showing a strong signal of a potential high on the hourly timeframe. Which is also unusual compared to the past month.

What’s important is that the strong signal appeared at the third marker, and the dominance has hit the horizontal level of 9.099% as resistance. Therefore, the remaining 20 minutes are clearly a bad time to build shorts. It’s better to wait for a pullback. And then see how many sustained downtrends—and on which timeframes—the market shows at the start of the new hour. If you didn’t make it, then you’re late: jumping into the “bear wagon” at the day’s low is a questionable pleasure. But for now, this impulse looks promising.

It’s also worth reminding that the key level on this chart is 9.65%, which—according to our assessment—separates the bear and bull markets.

BTC breaks the psychological $85,000 mark, kicking off the execution of the “Double Top” pattern. With a full target of $82,795. Even though it’s somehow unusual to run the target downwards rather than upwards. Literally just before this impulse, we were discussing in the chat that price has entered a range and is forming a potential new “Bullish Pennant,” against the execution of which local trends are currently — for now — working. And as we can see, they are strongly against it.

Since the last review, which warned about a fresh downtrend, another one has been added — on the 1-hour timeframe. And at this point, the second of its targets has already been completed at $84,794. The third remains at $84,306.

The expected bounce still isn’t showing up, but at the same time there are already three marks of potential lows on the 1-hour timeframe, which makes us wait a bit longer. But overall, buyers today are not in shape.

By the way, according to our horizontal levels indicator, the situation is as follows: in the event of a break of 84 132$ , the price may accelerate and quickly reach $82,790. And that, again, is close to the “Double Top” target.

Important events for the crypto market on September 23 from the economic calendar.
Today is one of the three main macro data days of the week. But not the key one. Second in importance. The reason is the business activity indexes in the United States.
Schedule for the day:
In Japan, it’s a holiday.
- 11:00 Kyiv and MSK / 13:00 Astana — Eurozone business activity index block for September:
-- Business activity index in the services sector.
-- Business activity index in the manufacturing sector.
-- Composite business activity index from S&P Global.
Important due to the euro’s role in the DXY calculation and for assessing the state of the Eurozone economy.
- 11:30 Kyiv and MSK / 13:30 Astana — Business activity index in the UK services sector and the composite PMI for September. Important due to the role of the British pound in the DXY calculation.
❗️- 16:45 Kyiv and MSK / 18:45 Astana — US business activity index block for September:
-- Business activity index in the manufacturing sector.
-- Business activity index in the services sector.
-- Composite business activity index from S&P Global.
This is an important set for assessing the state of the US economy, slowdown risks, and expectations for the Fed rate.
- 17:05 Kyiv and MSK / 19:05 Astana — Remarks by the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Barr.