Proekt_73

The volatility indices of BTC and ETH prices are delaying the turnaround, as assets enter extreme price compression. And where there is extreme compression, a "shot" in one direction is being prepared. Considering that we anticipated an increase in volatility and prices for both #BTC and #ETH around February 15-17, it is unlikely that the indices will decrease throughout the following week.
A recovery from the decline in volatility is likely to be expected in the first half of next week. We will evaluate each daily candle based on the indices to warn of a turnaround and a future surge. For BTC, ETH, and a number of other crypto assets, this will be the exit from the "Triangle" pattern, which has been forming for assets since the beginning of February.
Let us remind you that the price volatility indices do not provide an answer to the question "will there be growth or decline?". But for now, we lean towards expecting a decline. The overall market trend remains bearish and there are currently no reasons to believe that buyers have taken the initiative. If there is a takeover of initiative, we will promptly report on it. However, until there is a stable uptrend on the 3-hour time frame for BTC and a number of assets, it is not worth counting on that. At the same time, XRP, for example, as a TOP-10 asset, has today conversely lost its uptrend on the 3-hour time frame.

President Trump will give a briefing on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariffs in 25 minutes. The announcement of the speech is at 17:45 UTC. That is 19:45 in Kyiv / 20:45 in Moscow / 22:45 in Astana. The announcement is on the White House's X-account.
This is a potentially important trigger for the markets, asset prices may "swing" back and forth. If the rhetoric is tough, the market may quickly reassess the positive from the Supreme Court's decision.
CNN reported on how Trump learned about the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs:
"Breakfast was going well. They were working together, and then President Trump got angry. He started ranting about the decision, not only calling it a disgrace, but also attacking the courts – at one point, it was reported that he said 'these f***ing courts', using profanity."
So we are waiting for an angry Trump on air.
Prices continue to swing on the local picture. BTC has just returned to a steady uptrend on the 10-minute timeframe - as it has already lost it on the 5-minute. For many, the best solution now will be to close the terminal altogether and remember that today is Friday.

After the first reaction to Trump's tariff cancellation by the Supreme Court - BTC is still looking up. As is the crypto market as a whole. There is no talk of long-term growth, especially today and in the coming hours.
We draw such conclusions from two signals:
- The "cut" on the decision-making has ended for #BTC with the preservation of a stable uptrend on the 5-minute timeframe and a transition to a stable uptrend on the 10-minute timeframe.
- The key point - our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor reports that in this hour 23 assets from the TOP-200 have transitioned to a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe and 20 assets - on the 2-hour timeframe. A complete list of such assets is available to Monitor subscribers.
Of course, this could be a pool of false signals on a news trigger, but for now, the current forecast is for a short-term continuation of the upward movement in the market. It is worth watching for new signals.
Experience certainly suggests that there could be a tough bullish trap here. Not so much experience, but rather the market behavior throughout 2025 and part of 2026. For now, the BTC price maintains a stable downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe - such a scenario has all the technical grounds.

Trump called the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs "shameful" and announced a "backup plan".
Trump also stated that in his estimation, following the Supreme Court's decision, the States could owe more than 175 billion $ in the form of tariff refunds. The Supreme Court judge, commenting on the consequences of the decision being made, honestly admitted that "this will likely be a mess".
The "cut" in the market continues. There are no new clear technical signals for further movement in sight. It's the time for news traders to make trades and get liquidated on both sides 😬

The US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal. The first reaction of the crypto market is an upward impulse. But so far, the impulse has already been partially offset.
Let's recall the forecast from #JPMorgan, for which they assigned a 64% probability: The tariffs will be canceled but immediately replaced with similar ones. As a result, the S&P 500 will initially rise by 0.75-1%, but then will retreat to +0.1-0.2%.

For once, TRUMP has shown strength, with the asset indicating a stable uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe according to our indicator. For the first time since January 18. As seen from the notification from P73 Signals - the extreme base target is currently around +11%. However, if we look at the nearest liquidity zones on this timeframe, we are talking about targets higher, in the range of $4,733-$4,837.
Regarding #TRUMP, part of the deposit is still not "allocated", but as already mentioned - we decided to buy more of the asset only if/when it transitions into a stable uptrend on the 3-day timeframe. That is, it will confirm the mid-term growth signal from our indicator. As seen from the screenshot, there has never been such an uptrend in the asset's history.

In 2.5 hours, a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court on Trump's tariffs may be announced.
It should be noted that the court does not announce in advance which topics decisions will be made on that specific day, so this is only about the probability, not a guarantee.
Of course, if a decision is made, it will lead to increased volatility for all risk asset markets.
Analysts at #JPMorgan are voicing the following forecasts regarding the court's decision on tariffs:
- Probability 64%: Tariffs will be canceled but immediately replaced with similar ones. As a result, the S&P 500 will initially rise by 0.75-1%, but then retreat to +0.1-0.2%.
- Probability 26%: Tariffs will remain in effect. The S&P 500 will decline by -0.3-0.5%.
- Probability 9%: Tariffs will be canceled only after the midterm elections in November. The S&P 500 will rise by +1.25-1.5%, while the Russell 2000 will perform better.
- Probability 1%: Tariffs will be canceled without replacement. Then the S&P 500 will rise by +1.5-2%, and the Russell 2000 will again show better results.

Checkonchain: Sales from long-term BTC holders have noticeably cooled after the price dropped below $90,000.
According to #Checkonchain, after the correction of #BTC, the sales volume from LTH (long-term holders) has sharply decreased. While for most of 2025 the market regularly saw sales in the range of 6,000-17,000 BTC per day, in the last three months it has been around 2,000-4,000 BTC per day.
This is clearly visible on the chart. Previously, there was a pronounced zone of massive selling pressure, but in recent months sales have remained at substantially lower levels. This means that even against the backdrop of a drop below 90 000$ long-term holders did not capitulate.
IN SUMMARY, strong hands are in no hurry to unload during the correction, which usually reduces the risk of a deep continuation of the decline precisely due to the supply from old coins. For #BTC, this is rather a neutral-positive signal, especially if liquidity from demand starts to return.

Santiment: "mid-levels" are buying the dips on BTC, while larger wallets remain silent. This assessment from analysts looks contrasting compared to data from some other companies. But #Santiment has its own arguments and figures.
According to analysts, here's what is currently visible by wallet groups:
- Wallets holding 0.1-1 #BTC collectively hold about 3.5 million BTC - this is a maximum in 15 months. Since the peak on October 5, this group has accumulated +1.05% BTC.
- Wallets holding 1-10 #BTC collectively hold about 822 thousand BTC - this is a minimum in 38 months. Since the peak on October 5, this group has reduced its position by -0.49% BTC.
Holders of 0.1-1 BTC are the "smart retail": they often do not try to perfectly guess the bottom; they just methodically buy more when it’s scary. Usually, this provides price support and makes declines more "sticky".
Holders of 1-10 BTC are already larger players: noticeable sums, but their psychology is often still retail. And right now, they are not creating demand. They are not accumulating, and in some cases, are partially unloading.
So the picture looks more like a slow accumulation; there is no strong upward impulse in sight yet. Dips are bought, but by smaller wallets. And until the 1-10 BTC group starts accumulating again - the market is likely to go through "cuts", ranges.

Alphractal: There is stagnation in the active supply of BTC, the market is losing motivation.
The chart from #Alphractal shows how much #BTC is actually moving on the network (that is, participating in the life of the market), and not lying around as dead weight. Currently, the key signal is that the growth of active supply has stopped.
What does this usually mean?
Fewer coins are moving across the network - which means fewer decisions, fewer actions. Participants are in no hurry to sell or redistribute - indicating a wait-and-see mode.
Against the backdrop of falling prices and uncertainty, "fatigue" kicks in, and the market becomes inert.
Stagnation is neither a "bullish signal" nor a direct "bearish signal." It is a signal that participants do not believe in rapid movements and do not want to make unnecessary moves.
Historically, such phases often occur in a range, the market "saws" the price until an external trigger appears - liquidity, news, macro data, a large flow of demand/supply. And for now, the market has already gone into hibernation. But it is unlikely to be long.