Pelin Ay

Ethereum Ready for an Upward Breakout

The chart shows Open Interest at ≈ 7.8B and the price hovering around $3100. This level is neither extremely low nor extremely high; we can infer that the market is maintaining its positions.

Recently, the price has been trending slightly upwards. Open Interest is also increasing. This means that while new positions are being opened, old positions are also being maintained. Investors in the market are not without positions. Volatility is increasing, and a squeeze is forming.

Open Interest is recovering above the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) averages. This indicates a renewed willingness to take risks in the leveraged market. If the price remains above $3000 and the Open Interest increase continues gradually instead of sudden jumps, it will produce a controlled upward movement supported by the spot market. In this case, the price will continue its upward movement up to the $3700 level. This is my bias.

Ethereum is currently preparing for an uptrend. As Open Interest increases, investor demand increases. We may see a sharp movement in the short term. The market will either be relieved by a positive breakout or cleansed by liquidation. My expectation is that the $3324 resistance will be broken positively, leading to a continuation towards $3700, after which it will revert to the main downtrend. $ETH

📉 Top 10 Altcoins with the Biggest Declines in 2025

1️⃣ $MELANIA

Why: Unexpectedly priced as a political meme token; lost almost all its value after a short period of hype. Insider selling and a collapse in speculative demand shattered the price.

2️⃣ $LIBRA

Why: Rapid rise following the introduction of the Argentine President, followed by a sudden rug-pull-like collapse; founders sold off a large portion. Legal investigations into the software and marketing continued.

💨 $TRUMP

Why: President-themed meme coin attracted significant investment at its peak but gave back most of its value when the hype ended.

4️⃣ Berachain ($BERA)

Why: TVL and price were very high at the beginning of the year, then collapsed due to a lack of market demand. Liquidity tightened.

5️⃣ Mantra ($OM)

Reason: Manipulation allegations, significant selling pressure, and the liquidation of derivative positions deeply affected the price.

6️⃣ Celestia ($TIA)

Reason: Weak demand + strong token unlock cycle; failed to sustain investor interest. The market was heavily impacted by the broad altcoin crash.

7️⃣ $FET / $ASI

Reason: Launched during the AI sector hype but failed to sustainably attract users/adopt, resulting in lackluster performance.

8️⃣ Optimism ($OP)

Reason: Low demand, continuous token unlocks, and inability to attract enough users in a competitive Layer-2 environment.

9️⃣ $BONK

Reason: General cooling off in meme coins and weakening trading activity in the Solana ecosystem. The decrease in speculative trading caused a sharp decline.

🔟 $WIF (Dogwifhat)

Reason: Breaking through critical support levels after a rapid price increase, false partnership claims, and a psychological rupture.

📈 Top-Rising Altcoins in 2025
1️⃣ $MYX
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Being a new derivatives/perpetuals-focused token in the popular BNB Chain ecosystem.
👉🏻 airdrop programs and community growth.
👉🏻 Low supply and speculative demand.

2️⃣ Zcash ( $ZEC )
A large-scale privacy-focused project.
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Strengthening the privacy/anonymity narrative triggered global user and investor

3️⃣ $WFI
A high-performance token with a small market capitalization.
Reasons for
👉🏻 Transparent market response and increased liquidity.

4️⃣ $HYPER
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Real and measurable use.
👉🏻 HYPE offered an actively used product, not a story.
👉🏻Hyperliquid operates as an on-chain perpetual futures DEX

5️⃣ $SOL ~209%
Reasons for the Rise:
👉🏻Proven network performance and stability
Long-term uninterrupted operation
👉🏻Transition to the Firedancer client
👉🏻Significant improvements in TPS, latency, and finality

6️⃣ $Rain Protocol ~184%
Altcoin with a prediction market concept.
Reasons for the rise:
👉🏻Attracted investor interest with marketing and new DeFi narratives. 👉🏻New capital inflows into prediction protocols in the sector.

7️⃣ $BNB ~173%
Reasons for the Rise:
👉🏻 Token Burning
👉🏻 It has an Auto-Burn + Real Burn system.
👉🏻 Even if supply constantly decreases while demand remains constant, the price goes up.

8️⃣ Zebec Network ($ZBCN) ~+164%
Payment / real-time streaming token.
Reasons for the rise:
👉🏻 Institutional interest with real-time payment / revenue streaming use cases.

9️⃣ Zora ( $ZORA ) ~+138%
Social finance (#SocialFi) / Layer-2 focused project.
Reasons for rise:
👉🏻Becoming a trend due to the interaction between NFTs and social finance. announcements.

🔟 Monero ($XMR) ~+115%

Privacy-focused giant crypto.
Reasons for rise:

👉🏻Investor demand for privacy solutions due to the stagnation of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
👉🏻Strengthening of the crypto freedom/privacy narrative.

Last week, I said that Ethereum's price remaining below the symmetrical triangle was a trap. Currently, the price is near the first significant resistance level at $3324. I consider a rise to $3700 reasonable. A close above $3700 would shift my bias upwards.

Unless this scenario occurs, I expect the price to continue its downtrend and make a new low, possibly around $1700. $ETH

Bitcoin has started the interim uptrend I've been waiting for for a month. I expect the rise to continue up to the $102K-$110K range.

The first resistance Bitcoin will encounter in this rise will be $98K. I would start looking for a reversal and being cautious for a short entry above $98K.

I've said this rise will always be an exit opportunity. The main direction is still downwards. A new low will follow this rise. First $72K, then $50K. $BTC

Due to global uncertainty, both the $DXY and $BTC are rising simultaneously.

The Maduro events caused both the #DOLLAR index and Bitcoin, which acts as digital gold, to rise at the same time. This is an unusual situation for the markets. In this uncertain environment, small investors are shifting to the dollar, while institutions are preferring assets like #Bitcoin and #GOLD.

The crucial point is that as these assets rise, Bitcoin dominance is also increasing. In this environment, I expect sharp upward movements in the crypto market this week.

Reasons for the Large XRP Outflow from Binance on January 1st
1. The sudden drop seen on January 1st is noteworthy. Whales transferred XRP from Binance to wallets. This transfer may have been for custody OTC agreements or cross exchange transfers. Such outflows can reduce the supply on the exchange potentially driving up the price. However, we don't see this price increase.
2. It could be an internal Binance operational move. Binance sometimes performs hot and cold wallet balancing, regulatory compliance, or year end balance/reserve restructuring. These operations technically reduce the supply, but they don't produce market behavior. Looking at the price on the chart we don't see the same momentum of price increase. Therefore this reason seems more logical.
3. This supply reduction could also be for ETF or derivative product preparation. On the XRP side it could be for derivative product collateral, liquidity pool preparation, or transfer to market makers. In this scenario the coin is issued to generate liquidity.
The crucial part is that this supply which was released from the exchange returned to Binance on January 2-3. The fact that the released supply returned so quickly is proof that it was a fake out. With this release whales measured the market's reaction to the supply reduction. They looked to see if sellers were decreasing. When the expected aggressive buying didn't materialize, XRP was moved back to the exchange. This indicates that the supply release was a controlled planned move.
The supply release on Binance was a ploy to raise the price and sell XRP. However it didn't find enough demand. When the price didn't show an upward effect the XRPs were moved back to the exchange. The chart clearly shows that even the supply reduction couldn't cause a rise in XRP. This indicates that institutional investors are still finding a price to buy. In the short term as long as Binance's supply ratio remains high a sharp rally in $XRP seems difficult. Since supply releases raise the price and then suppress it with selling it would not be correct to expect an uptrend

Ethereum Open to Liquidity Hunt
In the chart,
Total Inflow: 1.595T
Total Outflow: 1.583T

The net difference is around $12B USD and is very limited. This indicates that there is no aggressive net inflow or outflow of money on the #Binance side. The market is not in panic mode. It seems to be more of a position change and waiting phase. This kind of balance usually coincides with periods of horizontal consolidation.

Inflow,
$USDT: 641.7B (40.22%)
$USDC: 469.6B (29.43%)

Outflow,
USDT: 627.4B (39.62%)
USDC: 469.5B (29.65%)

There is a very clear balance in stablecoins. Stablecoins are coming to the exchange but also leaving, meaning there is no large amount of money expected for buying. But there is no flight from the market either. This pattern generally occurs when whales haven't made a clear decision to buy, and they don't find the price increase sufficient to sell their ETH in their wallets.

$ETH Inflow
418.1B (26.21%)

#ETH Outflow
420.6B (26.56%)

There's a very slight outflow dominance on the ETH side. #Ethereum is entering exchanges with the potential intention of selling. However, the outflow is almost the same size, meaning the sold ETH is being replaced. This shows that long-term investors haven't abandoned ETH. It's clear that most of the inflows and outflows are due to short-term trading, futures/hedge trading, or arbitrage. These inflows and outflows aren't putting pressure on the ETH price. However, there's not yet enough power to start a rally.

Assets like $UNI, $LINK, $AAVE, $DAI, and $PAXG are very small in terms of percentage. There's no altcoin season behavior. If there were an altcoin rally, we would see outflow > inflow in these assets. In other words, withdrawals from exchanges would increase. ETH price is expected to continue its sideways movement in the short term. Breakouts may remain as fake breakouts. The possibility of a liquidity hunt seems high. #Ethereum

Bitcoin Continues its Sideways-Positive Trend

Looking at the current situation, the Netflow-Reserve Ratio is mostly around 0. Extremely positive spikes are not permanent. Negative spikes are sharper but short-lived. In other words, BTC is flowing into Binance, but not to a critical level compared to reserves. Whales are not in a mass panic selling mode. Sales appear to be mostly short-term and for trading purposes.

In short, this data does not produce a strong dump signal, but there is also no strong demand for an upward move.

My expectation is that with the Ratio turning negative, withdrawals from the exchange will outpace inflows, leading to a supply contraction and a short-term upward price movement.

Currently, the chart is neither fully bullish nor fully bearish, giving more of a consolidation warning. This on-chain structure generally keeps the price within a range.

The critical support level for Bitcoin is $81,500; as long as the price stays above this level, it will target $102,600. I think the decline will continue from this level.

The current chart shows no strong dump signals. However, there are no strong rally signals either. Therefore, the price may continue its sideways movement in the $81,500-$102,600 range for some time. $BTC #bitcoin

XRP Continues to Decline

A clear downward trend has emerged in Ripple since the July peak. The price has been hovering below EMA(14) and EMA(30) for a long time. The bear season continues in the short and medium term. The averages are sloping downwards and moving closely to each other. This situation indicates that reaction rallies are being used as selling opportunities unless strong buyers come in.

The striking part of the chart is that during the declines, the volume has shown controlled increases rather than sudden spikes. There is no strong reversal candle supported by volume in the bottom regions. This suggests that it is a continuous and systematic selling rather than panic selling. This makes it difficult to say that the decline is completely over.

The levels at which the market has reacted on the chart appear to be 1.75 – 1.80 USDT. This main support area is very close to the current price. In previous declines, the price has made short-term holds at this level. If daily closes fall below this level, the downward momentum will accelerate, and the major lower support at 1.60 – 1.62 USDT will be tested. If this support, which in the past has seen sharp wicks, is broken, a psychological and technical gap will form.

1.40 USDT is the last line of defense in the medium term. A drop here confirms that the bear market has deepened.

In upward movements, the resistance to be noted is 1.95 – 2.00 USDT, the first serious selling area. EMA(30) operates within this band. If there is no sustainability above it, the rises will remain weak. The chart makes it impossible for the trend to turn upwards without a close above 2.50 USDT.

XRP is currently in a weak demand area. Buyers are on standby, while sellers are stable. Support breaks easily, while resistance breaks are more challenging. The direction still appears downward in the short and medium term. $XRP

DXY is in demand! A rise from here to 99 would deepen the decline in #crypto, especially #Bitcoin. $DXY

Binance Fund Flow Ratio Shows Uncertainty Despite Increased Volatility

The price is currently below the SMA (14, 30, 50) averages. This indicates that funds flowing into Binance are weak relative to the price. We can understand that the BTC entering the exchange is more for selling than buying. Demand is still weak. This structure will not generate upward momentum.

All averages of the Fund Flow Ratio are horizontal and slightly downward sloping. Even if the price goes up, there isn't enough demand to reverse the main trend upwards. Since the price isn't rising, the amount of money entering the market isn't increasing. There are no new buyers; only existing liquidity is changing hands. Even if the price rises, this won't be sustainable. Therefore, as I've repeatedly stated, even if we experience a short-term upward wave, the main trend will continue downwards.

Another noteworthy point in the chart is the sharp upward and downward wicks, but the average value isn't expanding. This means that intraday trading is intense, with only scalping and short-term trades. There's no positioning; investors are indecisive. Volatility exists, but it lacks the power to reverse the trend.

There is a Price-Fund Flow Divergence. BTC is currently trading around $87K. While the price is falling, the Fund Flow Ratio isn't showing a strong accompanying increase. This indicates a lack of strong buying at support levels. Bitcoin hasn't yet reached a cheap price perception. Whales aren't taking risks yet. Based on this data, a major rally cannot be expected. Correctionary rallies, sideways and downward consolidation are possible, as the price encounters selling pressure with every rise.

Without sustained Fund Flow Ratio above 0.02, rallies in BTC will act as selling opportunities. #Bitcoin

Binance Trade Volume Shows Altcoin Season Ended Before It Even Began

The chart shows that the market has been moving in an altcoin-centric mode for extended periods, rather than a BTC-centric one.

During periods of increased BTC volume, the share of BTC expands upwards from the 10-15% range. Simultaneously, Others volume shrinks. ETH generally remains neutral or slightly retreating. This indicates that the market is reducing risk. During these periods, Altcoin/BTC pairs generally weaken as well. Volatility decreases.

Periods of Increased ETH Volume (Orange Area Expanding): BTC volume remains stable or declines. Others have not yet peaked. ETH share expands towards the 25-35% range. In this case, the market is taking on a level of risk from BTC, but the altcoin season hasn't fully begun yet. The ETH price is outperforming BTC. ETH dominance is increasing. Large L1s are following ETH.

During periods when other major altcoin volume peaks (the green area is dominant), Others volume reaches 60-75%. BTC and ETH volumes are squeezed together simultaneously. This increases the high risk appetite in the market. Capital flows to assets with the highest beta. Sharp increases are observed in altcoins, while BTC generally shows a sideways rise.

This chart shows that volume doesn't follow the price; instead, it prepares the ground for the price's future direction.

Currently, Others volume appears to have significantly decreased. ETH volume is stable upwards, while BTC volume is clearly showing a tendency to recover from its bottom. This proves that the broad-based rally mode in altcoins has ended. We can say that the market is either in an upward phase specifically for ETH or a gradual return to BTC.

In this process, not random altcoins, but coins with high liquidity and a narrative will move. BTC will not experience a sudden dump, but its upward momentum will remain limited. ETH will remain more resilient than BTC. $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin closed at $87K on Monday. As long as the price holds the $81,500 support, I think it will first rise ($102K-$110K) and then continue its main downward trend.

This week's MR range for #bitcoin will be $87,800-$90,500. I don't think the entire #Altcoin market will follow this rise. Unfortunately, there isn't much inflow into altcoins, except for a few major projects. These projects are generally major coins that have received ETF approval.

I'd also like to add that I still see people creating altcoin portfolios, which is a wrong approach. Let's see the bear bottom first, then creating portfolios will be easy. I think $BTC should drop to at least $72,000.

Bitcoin dominance continues to rise. #Bitcoin is making a slight upward move, but most #altcoins do not seem to follow. Likely, $BTC the rise will continue to crush most altcoins. I hope the coins in your spot are among the ones that stand out.

I will share a detailed analysis for Bitcoin tomorrow, but I can say this. The main direction is down, but we will see a short wave of upward movement as a correction of the decline. $BTCDOM

CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) Data Shows a Mini Christmas Rally is Possible

CDD measures long-term investor (LTH) behavior. In the chart, CDD bars have been irregular but not excessively high in recent weeks. Additionally, the CDD-SMA(30/50/100) short-term averages are not breaking upwards. This is very important because long-term coins are not flooding exchanges en masse. In other words, whales are not aggressively selling.

When CDD rises sharply in the chart, the price is generally near the peak. Usually, a correction or volatile consolidation follows.

According to the chart, if CDD is calm or the price is volatile, it indicates that selling pressure is coming from short-term traders. The current situation perfectly summarizes this. This pattern indicates that the price is open to surprise upward movements.

For a Christmas rally, the following conditions are required: LTH will not sell off, CDD will not increase while the price falls, and liquidity will circulate through small investors.

The chart clearly shows that the first two conditions are met. Therefore, the CDD (Credit Value Added) data isn't preventing a mini Christmas rally. However, this doesn't mean a Christmas rally is certain; it simply indicates that it's structurally possible.

Previously, in situations similar to today's CDD data, rallies occurred when CDD data was low, while declines remained relatively small. This upcoming mini-rise can be interpreted as a correction to a previous decline. The key point to note is that if a sudden, high CDD data release occurs while the price is rising, we can conclude that this rise is a trap. Currently, there is no such signal. $BTC #bitcoin

XRP ETF Approval Couldn't Stop the Selling

Looking at the Binance Inflow-Value Band chart, the majority of inflows are coming from the 100K – 1M XRP and 1M+ XRP range. These amounts indicate that whales, not small investors, are actively moving coins to the exchange. Large amounts sent to the exchange are generally preparations for selling.

The chart shows that after each large inflow, the price forms a lower high and lower low pattern. This indicates that supply is suppressing demand, because there are no new strong buyers in the spot market. Even if whales aren't making strong sales, the price continues to fall due to increased supply.

Based on the inflow density and price reactions in the chart, the first major support level appears to be $1.82-$1.87. This is seen as the level where the price briefly tried to hold during the last decline and small buyers emerged. However, if large inflows continue, the price could pull back to $1.5-$1.66. In short, this chart doesn't show any preparation for a rally.

In theory, we all thought that the XRP ETF process would generate institutional demand and that spot buying would drive the price up. What we encountered, however, was high-volume XRP inflows into Binance. This is because whales were the first to act when the ETFs were approved and expectations rose. They moved their previously accumulated XRP to sell, taking advantage of the ETF approval. In other words, whales used the ETF approval to sell to small investors. The price encounters selling pressure every time it reaches $1.95. It would not be realistic to expect a bull run until inflows decrease. $XRP

Ethereum is the Most Transferred Coin from Miners to Binance

Last year, #Ethereum was by far the leader in transfers from miners to exchanges. Throughout the chart, transfers reached levels of over 100M USD. It appears that miners are providing liquidity through $ETH . Miners seem to have played a significant role in Ethereum's lack of a bull run and the premature end of the altcoin rally.

$USDT and then USDC follow Ethereum in miner transfers. Miners have made regular and significant transfers, and it seems they prefer to remain in cash after sales. This leads to reduced market volatility.

WBTC follows USDT and USDC exchange transfers. Although small in number, it is strategically important because miners solve BTC not directly, but in tokenized form. This results in limited upward movements for the BTC price.

The altcoin most transferred from miners to exchanges is $LINK It stands out significantly compared to other altcoins. Looking at the price movement, it's clear this transfer is for liquidation purposes.

Miners are minimizing their risks while increasing their cash position.
It's clear they are not in long-term holding mode. A strong bull trend is not expected at times like these. Rises are short-lived and encounter selling pressure. This type of structure is frequently seen during bear seasons.

Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, is in a more positive position. Although the downtrend hasn't been broken yet, there is a recovery. A rise to $3324 is normal. This rise doesn't necessarily mean it's bullish. A close above this level is necessary to break the downtrend. $ETH

Bitcoin closed negatively again on Monday. I think the decline will continue before the formation is complete. From this chart, it seems that if this close isn't a trap, we won't see the $100K level for quite some time.

Going above $90K now seems difficult. First $81,500, then $72,000. If that's the bottom, great. If not, we'll see a bearish bottom of $50K, then the bull market will continue.

Since the breakout, I've been warning you that my #Bitcoin peak target hasn't been reached and that it entered the bear market early. I hope you haven't suffered significant losses. Those who say there was no bull market unfortunately ended up with #altcoins that didn't experience a bull market. I also bought coins that didn't experience a bull market, but some were different, like $Sei, $Ton, etc. Bitcoin experienced a bull market. Now, instead of examining altcoins as a whole, it's important to track them separately.

I bought $BTC for $20K during the 2021 bull market. I sold it around $98K. I will now start buying #Bitcoin gradually, from $50K and below.