解夫BTC

$CL Many people are questioning my perspective. To be honest, in the square there are so many people sharing their viewpoints—everyone has different opinions. Instead of questioning, it’s better to take a closer look at what everyone thinks, why they think that way, and then slowly refine your trading method.

After placing the order at the expected position, I opened the exchange in the morning and my wallet balance went up a little—though not much. In the end, this order was still placed. So now I move my stop loss down by two points. For technical trading, if you constantly focus on news-based trading, it will definitely affect your own judgment. So right now, the U.S. and Iran have made peace and, for now, the conflict won’t escalate. What do you think? Are you bearish? Where would it drop to? Where is a good place to buy? Or should we continue chasing shorts? Where to chase?

I’m only sharing my own viewpoint. As of now, this order is up by one point.

$SNDK I see, many people are asking about SanDisk like this, is it? I don’t hold any SanDisk anymore. After I took down the short position on the exchange, I had no position; that’s also my problem—I didn’t keep following it.

But with SanDisk’s current price, shorting has no advantage at all. The best short opportunity would be to remove the liquidity above, then let it drop back, with the stop-loss placed at the prior high. Going long is also fine—either break out and chase, or break out, pull back, and then chase. If it drops back, stop out.

When trading, don’t make predictions—only trade within expectations. If you’re not sure about the market, then use a small position to scratch the itch, and that’s enough. You may not get rich overnight, but you can accumulate gradually.

$ETH daily line review:
After the price broke below 1820 earlier, weakness continued and further pushed downward, indicating that 1820 once turned from support into resistance.

But judging from the structure of this chart, the price has already moved back above 1820. As long as the subsequent daily candles do not fall back below 1820, the daily timeframe can be viewed as temporarily bullish.

The key is not to chase the top by guessing from a single bullish candle, but to observe whether 1820 can complete the change from “resistance to support.”

On the upside, first look at the 1930—1950 area. This is a relatively clear resistance zone in the recent period. If the price approaches this range and then shows volume with stalled upside, or if a clear reversal appears, you still need to guard against a spike followed by a pullback.

On the downside, the most critical defense level is still 1820:

Holding 1820: the daily bullish structure continues; if it falls back below 1820 and keeps weakening, it will turn back into a choppy-to-bearish setup. If it then loses the previous swing low area around 1550—1600, the current repair logic is basically invalid.

So it’s more suitable now to judge structure, rather than being led around by intraday rises and falls.

Regaining a key level does not mean the market must move one-way upward. What really matters is: after regaining it, can it hold? And when it hits resistance, can it continue to repair.

Until 1820 is not broken again to the downside on the daily timeframe, the ETH daily timeframe is temporarily more bullish; once it is lost, you must respect the market’s opposite signals.

Note: The above assessments are based on visual observation of the chart and do not represent real-time market conditions, nor do they constitute actionable trading advice.

$CL Trading View｜Consider Long on the Rebound Around 75

From the 2-hour structure, around 75 is a relatively key support area in the recent period. After multiple prior tests, the price showed clear reactions each time.

Currently, the price is trading around 77.5. Next, pay close attention to how it holds and absorbs after the pullback toward 75.

My plan is:
Pull back to around 75, and if it shows a stop-loss/relief signal or a rebound confirmation, then consider going long on the reversal.

Place the stop-loss about 2 points below the support, referring to the area near 73. If the price effectively breaks below 73, it means the support at 75 has failed—this long setup would no longer hold, and you shouldn’t keep holding on stubbornly.

On the upside, first focus on the reaction around 78.5—80. Whether the price can continue strengthening afterward depends on the volume strength and the structure once it regains its footing.

The core logic is very simple:
Hold 75—watch for dip-buying and rebound; if 73 breaks down, admit the mistake promptly and exit.
This is only my personal take on the market and does not constitute investment advice. Pay attention to position sizing and risk.

#BinanceSquare #交易观点 #原油 #技术分析

$SNDK Weekend’s here, and there isn’t much liquidity anymore. Once we get this order up, even though it didn’t capture the entire move, I took profit at 1300—that’s still about 30%. Time to wash your feet—go out and have fun on the weekend.

Next step: we’ll still look to go long on pullbacks. As shown in the second chart, it’s $SNDK.US in the US stock market. My view is that after a retest of the support ahead, it will continue to drop. Just wait from here. Don’t be afraid you can’t catch every bit—if you can’t, at least you won’t lose money. Keep the confidence of always being in the game’s “trading table.”

$SNDK How did it rise like a copycat? It automatically took profit at 1300, and I didn’t get any of the later moves. This rebound is way too strong, huh. I woke up this morning and my position was gone. I checked and my wallet balance was higher. Hahaha

$SNDK
Let me talk about my actions. In the morning, I bought some. At the first high point, I sold everything. After a while, I bought back again.

My current view is that since it broke through the downward trend line, I’ll follow through and hold it upward from here. The profit from this morning is still there, and the retracement doesn’t have much impact. This order’s profit is not much—it's more of a very short-term arbitrage.

As for my view on holding positions, it’s only about killing leverage. For the next buy, I’m definitely going to add more.
#TradFi晒单

$ETH didn’t break through. The morning’s long setup also didn’t get triggered, so I directly left a short order open. It really has pulled back, though. I still expect it to rebound for a bit—after it takes out the liquidity above, it should continue falling.

The short at 1970 is already in; I placed the stop loss at 2000. I’ll leave it to fate and look for take profit gradually as it moves down.

$SNDK : there’s also last week’s 1650 Flash deal short at 1480. I took half off at stop; the rest I let run for profits—and it ended up exceeding expectations, with a pretty good gain. Any extra profit is basically a pleasant surprise.

$ETH Some orders I placed myself. I just forgot to send them out. I want to be a qualified trading blogger, but this is just too lazy. I don’t even post on Twitter, and I don’t post on the Binance Square either. I just mess around on my own.

I place orders relatively rarely—usually only at key levels. Lately my win rate has been unusually high. I’ve been liquidated by holding against positions before—1011 victims. Now I firmly refuse to hold against the order. I slowly rebuild bit by bit. This trade was also a weekend scalping/hedge stop-itch order, with a very small position. It’s 10x leverage on 5% total position size.

I’ve already taken profit on this trade. Now I’ll keep waiting: if it breaks above 1970, I’ll chase it in; if it drops back to the stop-loss, I’ll reverse and open a short, waiting for this price action… for $ETH

$NATGAS 7月10日看天然气的时候，我的观点一直很明确：

2.89不是到了就直接抄底，而是要先跌破，把下方流动性扫掉，然后重新收回来，才是我想要的做多机会。

现在回头看，价格基本按这个路径走出来了。

天然气先跌破2.89，在下方震荡并完成了一轮流动性清理，随后重新站回关键位上方，目前反弹到2.96附近。对我来说，现在才算真正到了可以考虑交易的位置。

这笔交易的核心不是“天然气跌得够多”，也不是猜这里一定是底。
我想看到的是市场先破位，把提前抄底的人和2.89下方的止损洗出去，再用实际走势收回关键位。只有价格重新站上2.89，才说明刚才的跌破有可能是假跌破，下面开始出现承接。

所以这笔多单的逻辑依然很简单：

2.89失而复得，是参与依据后续回踩不破，是结构确认前低下方，是止损和逻辑失效的位置

如果重新跌回2.89下方，并且进一步跌破前低，那就说明这次收回失败，多单逻辑直接取消。我不会因为已经等了这么久，就给错误的交易找理由。

现在价格虽然已经反弹，但当前4小时K线还没有收完，所以我不会把一次盘中收回当成彻底反转。接下来重点看2.89能不能真正从压力转成支撑，以及上方3.00附近的承压情况。

7月10日我等的是：

跌破2.89——扫掉流动性——重新收回——前低止损。
现在这个结构如期出现，也到了我计划里的交易位置。

交易不是预测每一根K线，而是提前想清楚自己要等什么、在哪里参与，以及错了在哪里认。

位置到了，就按计划处理。
位置没到，再大的跌幅也跟我没关系。

以上仅为个人交易计划记录，不构成投资建议。

$SNDK open position until here; I’ll take profit on half. There’s no liquidity in US stocks over the weekend either. For the other half, let the profits run. If it keeps falling, then everyone’s happy—like turning it into a red envelope.

$SNDK It was almost stopped out. I set the stop-loss at 1710. In the morning, I woke up and saw that it had nearly been stopped out!

Then I continued looking. When it broke below, I kept adding to my position, putting the profit in as well, and expanded my gains.

Recently I haven't posted because I've been on the $SNDK vehicle all the time; there's not much to say.

That’s the view: when price reaches higher levels, step by step take profit. Just now I fully closed all positions and took profit. Then I opened a little short position in the opposite direction. I only trade at key levels. When I make money, I go out and play—the Shanghai sun is too scorching.

If you really want to short ETH, around 1965 might be an ideal entry.

Don’t keep chasing shorts at low levels after you’ve followed the downtrend up. This spot is right near the nearby resistance ahead—also a place for short positions to consider adding.

The plan is simple:
Short around 1965.
Set the stop loss around 1995, a 30-point stop.

If the price directly breaks through the resistance with strong volume, acknowledge the mistake and exit—don’t fight the trend.

Shorting isn’t because it has already dropped a lot, but because you’re waiting for it to rebound to a key level and then see whether there’s a rejection signal.

Trade at key levels—don’t chase trades when emotions are at their peak.

HYPE slipped back from around the $74 high. It’s now down to roughly $59.

My take is very straightforward: in the short term, it most likely still needs to keep moving lower to find support.

From $49 to $74 earlier was a solid run with a large amount of unrealized gains built up. Now the high-level structure has been broken; the daily chart has been weakening consecutively, and short-term capital is starting to realize profits. There’s no need to rush in and buy here.

That said, I’m not bearish on HYPE’s long-term fundamentals.

If this pullback can come back to around $49, I think that area would be a very good zone to watch for a long entry.

The reason is simple: around $49 is a previously important breakout level and also the starting point of this main upswing. After the initial breakout, this is the first deep retracement. It’s likely to form a support-flip as price falls from $74 back to $49, and the room for adjustment is also relatively sufficient.

But it’s not the case that the moment price hits $49, you should blindly go all-in.

I’ll wait for it to stop falling near $49, and watch for signs such as heavy volume absorption, a probe-and-reclaim move, or the daily chart regaining strength. Only then would I consider building a long position in batches. If it breaks through $49 on strong volume, it means the structure is weaker than expected—then we should keep waiting and not try to catch a falling knife.

Why am I still bullish on HYPE long term?

HYPE is the core token of the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Hyperliquid is currently one of the strongest platforms in the on-chain perpetuals space in terms of product experience, trading volume, and user stickiness.

Its core logic includes:

Real trading demand
Platform revenue mainly comes from real trading fees, not from inflated “artificial prosperity” created by high subsidies.

Fee buyback mechanism
Protocol revenue is continuously directed into the Assistance Fund, which buys HYPE in the market—creating a positive feedback loop: the larger the trading volume, the higher the fees, and the more buybacks.

Its own high-performance public chain
Hyperliquid isn’t just a perpetual DEX; it’s also building HyperEVM, spot, RWA, and more on-chain financial applications.

Leader position in the sector
In on-chain derivatives, HYPE is still one of the most recognizable core assets with the strongest attention from capital.

So my strategy is:
Short-term bearish—don’t rush to bottom-fish near $59. If it returns to around $49 and there’s a confirmation that selling has stopped, then look for lower-risk long opportunities.
Being bullish on a project doesn’t mean you can buy at any price.
The truly great trade is waiting for a good project to come back to a good position.
#hype单日跌8%

Crude oil breaks above $80—the real thing crypto should worry about isn’t oil prices

Iranian crude oil has broken through $80, and WTI and Brent are also rising rapidly.

Many people see this news and the first reaction is that energy stocks will benefit. But for crypto, what matters more is the transmission that follows:

Oil prices rise → inflation expectations heat up → room for rate cuts narrows → U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthen → risk assets come under pressure.

Although Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” in short-term trading it still behaves as a high-volatility risk asset driven by liquidity.

As long as geopolitical conflict continues to push up crude oil, the market will reprice inflation and interest rates. In this phase, both BTC and altcoins are prone to surging quickly—then being smashed down by liquidity.

Next, I’m mainly watching three signals:

Whether crude oil can hold above $80, rather than a spike followed by a retreat; whether the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields are moving in sync upward; and whether, after key levels for BTC are lost, a rebound can reclaim them

If oil prices keep rising and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields also rise together, crypto isn’t suitable for aggressive value-dogging.

Don’t just stare at the candlestick chart. What truly drives the market is often changes in liquidity beyond the candlesticks.

#伊朗原油突破80美元

Wow, just got into SanDisk for less than three minutes and it bounced back. It bounced back by 7%. $SNDK

$ETH Ethereum has run away. Wait for a rebound upward; depending on the situation, I may short. If it holds steady at 1865, then I’ll turn around and go long.

Just now, $SNDK which was around 1320+ has started to make a little profit. I can’t handle anything big with this kind of move. If it feels off, I’ll exit. Same idea as always—watch for a rebound; that’s the play.

And for $SKHYNIX this morning, if the situation wasn’t right, I ran. Profit by about one percent. I exited really fast—I couldn’t catch anything big.

$ETH , there's not a sign of the downtrend stopping at all. Then we’ll just keep holding. I also bought $SNDK again at 1320. Let’s see if it rebounds when the US stock market opens tonight. One bout of movement and it’ll be back at 1600.

Is today a holiday in Korea? That’s it—buying yarn with “Hailisi” at cost, out it goes, I’m not playing him anymore. $SKHYNIX .

$ETH —better to play my crypto. I used to think the crypto market was very volatile, but it turns out the US stock market isn’t small either. A lot of people are getting liquidated on the mountain.

Here’s a viewpoint: if it can get back above 1865, then I’ll switch to looking long on it. I’ve set the stop loss at 1840. My Ethereum short isn’t much at all—just a tiny bit—so I stop out once it bounces back up.