Mohanad Yaman

$LITEB CEO: optical parts completely sold out through early 2029 🥶

Unable to meet about 70% of demand for some products through next year.

About 30% shortfall on others through 2028. The prior call was end of 2028. Now it's early 2029.

Will we see $1,200 next?

#stocks #BTC

$ANET • ascending triangle breakout at all-time highs 👀

📊 Cloud and AI data center networking. Q2 revenue $3.04B, up 37.7%, the first $3B quarter. Adjusted EPS $1.02, up 39.7%. Q3 guide about $3.3B. FY26 revenue guide raised for the third time this year, to about $12.6B.

Real risk here: gross margin slipped to 63.4% from 65.6% a year ago, and management guides to supply, with about two quarters of visibility. Up 58% this year into earnings.

✅ Confirmed above $214.89

🟢 TP1 $225.07 (+4.2%) · TP2 $235.67 (+9.1%) · TP3 $248.51 (+15.0%) · TP4 $269.29 (+24.7%)

⛔ Invalid close under $208.20 (-3.6%)

⚠️ Earnings Nov 4

#stocks

$AGX found support 🧱

Came back into its Jan-Feb base, 343-400, the zone it broke out of on the run to 805. Held at 354.78 and is back over 400 today.

They build power plants, mostly natural gas, the kind keeping AI data centers running. Backlog includes 4 US gas plants, about 4.1 GW, mostly in Texas.

✅ Revenue up 61.5% last quarter, EPS up 50%
✅ $1B+ cash, zero debt
✅ Dividend just raised 40%
✅ Backlog $2.5B, up 29% YoY

⚠️ Backlog is down from its $2.9B peak with no major new award this year, and margins slipped from 25% to 19% over three quarters, strong in Power, softer in Industrial.

A close over $400 keeps the support in play. First resistance $444.53, then $500.

Not a financial advice

#stocks

$ALABB • Cup and handle breakout 👀

Built a cup from the August high, ran back to the rim, formed a tight handle, breaking out today.

📊 AI connectivity chips for cloud infrastructure. Q2 revenue $392.4M, up 104% YoY, adjusted EPS beat by 15.9%. Scorpio X AI fabric switches entered volume production ahead of schedule and are set to become the largest product family this quarter. PCIe 6.0 is now over half of revenue, up from a third in Q1. Q3 guided to $540-560M, 40% sequential growth.

✅ Confirm close above $377.87

🟢 TP1 $436.47 (+15.5%) · TP2 $465 (+23.1%) · TP3 $490 (+29.7%)

⛔ Invalid close under $342 (-9.5%)

#stocks

$ON • how I see the next 12 months

It ran from 31.04 to a 134.92 ATH, pulled back to 65.80, and is now at 86.76. I think the pullback is done.

Why I like the business:
✅ Q2 revenue was $1.60B, up 9% YoY, so growth is back
✅ Q3 guidance came in above estimates
✅ Free cash flow quadrupled to $425M, and margins keep expanding
✅ AI data center revenue should more than double this year to $500M+
✅ New SiC deals with NIO and Geely, plus wins at Rivian and AWS
✅ Buying Synaptics for $5.7B in cash, and there's $5.3B left on the buyback

⚠️ Risk: cheap Chinese SiC competition.

My path is higher highs and higher lows:
🎯 ATH 134.92 is the first test
🎯 T1 169.68 (+95.6%)
🎯 T2 233.88

❌ Invalid on a weekly close under 65.80.

Street bear. Base. Pull cases:
🐻 Bear $75, from Truist (Hold), about 13% below the current price
⚖️ Base $104, the average, about 21% upside
🐂 Bull $150, from Susquehanna, about 75% upside

Will ON get back to the ATH within a year?

#stocks

$AVGOB • Descending line breakout 👀

Pressing the upper line of the wedge, testing the break with a close near confirm.

📊 Custom AI chips and networking silicon for hyperscalers. Revenue up 86% YoY to $29.6B, AI semiconductor revenue up 221% to $16.7B.

💵 Q4 guided to $21.7B. Management's FY26 AI revenue guide sits near $58B, with longer-range commentary pointing to $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28, those are targets, not guidance. Gross margin is 75%, down 210bp QoQ as the AI mix shifts.

✅ Confirm close above $361.86

🟢 TP1 $376.59 (+4.1%) · TP2 $432.73 (+19.6%) · TP3 $495 (+36.8%)

⛔ Invalid close under $343 (-5.2%)

#stocks

Why I picked $ISRG as an investments 🤖

Everyone's chasing the same AI names. I'm putting my money into the company that owns robotic surgery.

🏥 What it does
Intuitive Surgical makes the da Vinci surgical robot and the Ion lung biopsy system. 11,710 da Vinci systems are installed worldwide, up 12% in a year.

💵 Why the business model is special
Q2 revenue was $2.89B:
• Instruments and accessories: $1.73B (60%). Every surgery uses new ones.
• Systems: $685M (24%)
• Services: $472M (16%)
About 76% of revenue keeps coming in after the robot is installed. Each new robot adds years of recurring sales.

📊 The growth
• Revenue +19%
• da Vinci procedures +15%
• Ion procedures +36%
• Operating income $972M, a 34% margin
• $8.6B in cash and investments
• 2026 guide: 13.5–15.5% procedure growth

📉 Why it's on sale
It's down 35% from its 616 high. After Q2 it didn't raise its procedure outlook, and investors got worried about slowing demand and healthcare policy. The business kept growing while the stock fell.

⚔️ What could go wrong
• Competition: Medtronic's Hugo was approved in late 2025 and J&J's Ottava in mid 2026.
• Tariffs: most instruments are made in Mexico, and guidance includes about a 1% gross-margin hit.
• Valuation: about 35x forward earnings, so it isn't cheap.

📈 The chart
The correction from 616 looks complete at 328.57. The bounce to 416.51 was the first leg up, and the current pullback is the second wave.

🎯 My plan
• Adding at 373–383
• More at 362
• Upside reference: 533.68
• I'm wrong below 328.57

Q3 earnings on Oct 20

Not financial advice

#stocks

$PI • Ascending triangle breakout 👀

Flat lid at $185-186.66 with higher lows at $156.96, $161.17, and $172.40. Friday closed over it at $189.61.

📊 RFID chips for item-level tracking across retail, logistics, and healthcare. Post-earnings drift has been positive since the July print, +15.1%, unlike some of the other recent AI-adjacent names that have bled after good quarters. Next earnings around Oct 28, more than three weeks out.

Sitting at $192, confirmed above the breakout.

✅ Confirmed close above $186.66

🟢 TP1 $215.25 (+13.7%) · TP2 $247.06 (+30.6%)

⛔ Invalid close under $177 (-6.6%)

#stocks

$CIEN • descending line breakout, confirmed 👀

Rail broke Thursday, Friday followed through with a close 2.7% over confirm. Sitting at 392 premarket.

Optical networking for AI-driven data traffic. Last quarter: revenue +37% YoY to $1.671B, EPS $2.11 vs $1.73 expected. Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $6.37-6.47B. Stock has drifted down since that print though, so this breakout is the chart catching up, not a fresh catalyst.

✅ Confirmed friday close $381

🟢 TP1 $418.72 (+6.9%) · TP2 $462.69 (+18%) · TP3 $494.53 (+26.2%)

⛔ Invalid close under $351 (-10.5%)

#stocks

Buy or Bye? 🤔 $SNY

My answer down below 🟢🔴

Sanofi trades at 8x earnings while the business grows 18%. Value trap or bargain? Read to the end for my verdict 👇

💰 Why it's cheap
• About 8x this year's earnings
• EV/EBITDA about 7.5x, against a 5-year average of 10.5x
• Free cash flow is about 10% of the share price each year
• 4.4% dividend

🚀 What's working
• Sales up 18% last quarter
• Dupixent up 38%
• EPS up 33%, and 2026 guidance raised
• Analyst average target $53.72

😬 What the market fears
• Dupixent is about 45% of sales, and its main US patent expires in March 2031
• Three pipeline drugs were dropped this year
• The stock fell 3% on the Oct 1 Regeneron deal ($1B upfront, up to $7B in milestones)

📍 My plan
3 equal buys with limit orders:
1️⃣ $38.93
2️⃣ $37.20
3️⃣ $39.56–41, only after the Oct 30 results and only if they're good
Average entry about $38.76.
⛔️ I stop adding on a weekly close under $36.91.

🎯 Scenarios from my average entry
Bear $33.60: −13%
Base $48.30: +25%
Bull $58.50: +51%
Plus the 4.4% dividend

✅ My verdict: BUY 🟢

Not financial advice

Buy or bye? Tell me 👇

#stocks

$NKE
hit a new multi-year low at 31.97 after earnings, with lower highs under two falling lines and no base yet. Gross margin is rising again and North America is back to growth, but the FY27 guide is for revenue down high-single digits, EPS came in below every estimate, and Greater China is down 26%.

No swing until it closes over about 37. For investing, I'd wait for a base maybe around 28-30, but needs to hold it into a monthly close too.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 09

$VICR: it's up 70% in a month on two guidance raises, but there's no base yet. It closed Friday at 308.90, 19% under the 382.65 June high.

✅️ What I like
Chart: Two gap-ups, on Sep 22 and Oct 1, both on news, and the Sep 17 gap at 190–206 is still unfilled. Buyers keep stepping in.
Fundamentals: It raised the Q3 growth outlook twice in nine days, from nearly 10% to over 20% and then over 30%, on royalties from a new license with an unnamed AI OEM. Q2 revenue was $143.4M (+27% q/q), with a 58% gross margin and a $380M backlog.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's 41% above the 50-day, and the Oct 1 gap faded 6.5% from the open. Risk to the Invalid is about 16% for 15.6% upside to the high, so the reward-to-risk is poor.
Fundamentals: Insiders sold $410.8M over 12 months with zero buys, mostly the CEO (about $334M). The stock has a boom-bust history, and earnings are expected around Oct 20.

💡 Trade idea: no clean setup. I'd wait for a base or a flag. If it closes over 331:
Confirm 331 · TP1 350.52 · TP2 361.89 · TP3 382.65 · Invalid 279

💰 Investment: for a starter position, 283–292 (the Oct 1 gap fill and the 283 shelf), then 266–269. A weekly close under 260 breaks the base.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 08

$AEHR: an ascending triangle under 111, with three tops there since July and higher lows rising into it. It closed Friday at 107.21.

✅️ What I like
Chart: A flat lid at 110–111 (110.20 on Jul 15, 111.00 on Aug 4, 109.48 on Friday) with higher lows since September at 74.23, 80.95 and then the 90s.
Fundamentals: A backlog of about $100M backs a FY27 guide of $130–150M, which is 2.6–3x FY26 revenue. AI and silicon photonics were over 80% of Q4 revenue, and there are repeat AI orders: a record $41M hyperscaler order in April and a $22M follow-on in August.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's extremely volatile. The August run through 111 failed and fell about 50% from 147.40 to 74.23 in three weeks, and it still needs a close over 111.
Fundamentals: About 25x FY27 sales guidance. The CEO sold 40,000 shares at $130.84 in August, three customers made up 26%, 14% and 11% of FY26 revenue, and it raised $97.4M selling new shares in FY26.

💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 111 · TP1 121.80 · TP2 126.62 · TP3 147.40 · Invalid 98

💰 Investment: not one for me at about 25x sales. It's a swing only, at small size given the swings.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 07

$MRVLB : I posted it at 255 and it hit TP1 at the 280 high. It closed Friday at 272.29, up 6.8% since the post.

✅️ What I like
Chart: Higher lows at 162.90 in July, 201.10 on Sep 3 and 213.63 on Sep 14, squeezed under a falling line from the 329.88 June high. It broke out of the triangle on Sep 17 and closed over Confirm 255 on Sep 21.
Fundamentals: Data center is 79% of revenue and growing 46%. Management raised the FY28 outlook to about $18B, up from $16.5B a quarter earlier.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: Friday closed well off the 280 high, so there was selling at TP1. 300 is a clear lower high before TP2.
Fundamentals: It fell 10% the day after a beat-and-raise in August on worries about when the Google deal revenue shows up. Investor Day is Tue Oct 6, which could bring a big move either way.

💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 255 · TP1 275 ✅ · TP2 316 · TP3 330 · Invalid 220

💰 Investment: for a starter position, 248–258 on a retest of the breakout, then 220–227 (mid-September lows and the 50-day).

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 06

I've posted swing setups on $MXL many times already. It's up 43% since I first posted it at 73.86 on Sep 17.

✅️ What I like
Chart: a textbook double bottom at 56.23 and 55.93, with a close over the 89 neck and the September 96 lid cleared on Oct 2.
Fundamentals: revenue up 55% with infrastructure up 145% on AI optical DSPs, and the Q3 guide of $210–220M is another big step up.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: up 76% in a month, so it's stretched, and the 128.30 high sits overhead.
Fundamentals: it reports Oct 22, and the Silicon Motion arbitration is still open.

💡 Trade idea: double bottom breakout, already hit tp1 though.
Confirm 89.00 · TP1 100.95 ✅ · TP2 110.98 · TP3 122.07 · Invalid 86.00

💰 Investment: for a starter position, a better buy would be around 89–92 (neck retest), then 80–85.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 05

$SYM is coiling under a descending line from its April high, with higher lows after a 57% drawdown.

✅️ What I like
Chart: higher lows at 37.68, 40.30 and 41.30, tightening under the line from 67.08.
Fundamentals: profitable and growing over 20%, with revenue of $721M (+22%), net income of $55M and a $22.5B backlog at the end of FY25.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: the line has rejected it three times without a close above, so it isn't triggered yet.
Fundamentals: Walmart was about 85% of FY25 revenue, analysts have been cutting targets (Needham $75 to $60, Barclays to $38), and it has a history of sharp gaps on guidance.

💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 45.64 · TP1 48.24 · TP2 56.36 · TP3 67.08 · Invalid 41.30

💰 Investment: a starter near 41–43 (the latest higher low), adding at 37.5–40.5. A weekly close under 37.68 breaks the base.

Trade and investment charts added

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 04

$AVGOB is pressing the upper line of a descending channel, 28% off its June high.

✅️ What I like
Chart: lower highs at 376.59, 366.55 and 361.86 are riding the channel's upper line, and the Oct 1 higher low at 343.29 suggests selling is drying up.
Fundamentals: revenue up 86%, AI chip revenue up 221% to $16.7B, guided to $21.7B next quarter. FY26 AI revenue is guided to about $58B, and on the call management talked about roughly $115B for FY27 and $230B for FY28.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: it's below both the 50-day (373) and 200-day (367.5) averages, and up only 2.6% YTD vs 22% for the Nasdaq.
Fundamentals: gross margin went from 75% last quarter to about 73% guided next quarter, as custom chips and memory weigh on the mix.

💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 361.86 · TP1 376.59 · TP2 432.73 · TP3 495.00 · Invalid 335.81

💰 Investment: a starter near 335–345, adding at the lower rail around 324–330. A weekly close under the lower rail breaks the channel.

Both charts added

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 03

$VRT is coiling in an ascending triangle, sitting on a possible weekly double bottom after a 34% pullback from its May high.

✅️ What I like
Chart: flat highs at 254.80–255.40 with rising lows from 226.94 to 238.30, above the weekly lows at 220.92 and 226.94.
Fundamentals: Q3 organic growth guided to +34–36%, margins up 410bp, the full-year guide raised to $13.8–14.2B, and net cash.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: the weekly trend is still down until about 300 clears, so the double bottom isn't confirmed yet.
Fundamentals: it fell 17% on its last report even with a guide raise, and it reports again around Oct 21. It also has a $1.45B acquisition to integrate.

💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 258.78 · TP1 274.76 · TP2 295.34 · TP3 313.61 · Invalid 238.30

💰 Investment: a starter near 238–242 (the triangle's rising lows), adding at 221–227, the weekly double-bottom lows. A weekly close under 220.92 kills the base.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 02

$SPCXB just closed over the falling line from its 225.64 IPO high, on volume above average.

✅️ What I like
Chart: first close over the downtrend line since the June IPO, on 119M shares vs a 94M average. It took back the 135 IPO price in August and has held above it since.
Fundamentals: AI compute contracts are now paying at full rate, about $1.25B a month from Anthropic and $920M a month from Google, both in SEC filings.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: it still needs a close over the 160.95 IPO-day close, and 3 of its 4 unlock days so far closed red.
Fundamentals: more insider shares unlock for sale on Oct 9 and Oct 26, with up to 28% more after Q3 results. Both AI contracts can also be cancelled on 90 days' notice.

Trade idea:
Confirm 160.95 · TP1 172.40 · TP2 176.52 · TP3 197.40 · Invalid 145.36

Investment: I'd wait for the unlocks to pass, then start a position near 145–150. The 135 IPO price is the line that has to hold.

Not financial advice

#stocks

Weekend deep dive stock 01

$ANET is pressing its ATH in an ascending triangle. And is in an ascending channel since August 2025.

✅️ What I like
Chart: higher lows since August under a flat lid at 214.89, 3.5% off the high.
Fundamentals: revenue up 38% at a 50% operating margin, and the full-year guide was raised to about $12.6B.

🚨 What worries me
Chart: the last push to 214.89 on Aug 5 reversed to a 197 close. It needs a close over the lid.
Fundamentals: 66x earnings leaves no room for a miss, and it reports around Nov 3.

Trade idea:
Confirm 214.89 · TP1 225.07 · TP2 238.72 · TP3 248.50 · Invalid 198.76

Investment: for a starter position a better buy would be around 190-200 then 180-185

Both charts uploaded here

Not financial advice

#stocks