MK守约

$HYPE 76–97

$BTC 76K

$HYPE

【Shouyue | Tonight’s FOMC: Rate Hikes Paused, Easing Still a Long Way Off】
Everyone, keep one thing in mind tonight: rates were left unchanged, and the Fed’s stance on fighting inflation remains very firm.
In the early hours of October 29 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The decision passed 10–2. Notably, both dissenting votes called for another 25-basis-point hike. The statement also emphasized that economic growth is strong and inflation remains elevated.
1. How does Shouyue view this decision?
My take: this is a wait-and-see decision made under continued pressure to tighten.
A resilient economy gives the Fed time to keep watching. If inflation doesn’t come down, further rate hikes remain an option. The fact that rates weren’t raised tonight alone is not enough to conclude that a rate-cutting cycle is about to begin.
2. What should we listen for in Warsh’s remarks?
According to public reports on the press conference, he stressed that inflation is still too high and that the 2% PCE inflation target has not been softened. He also said previous policy measures are starting to take effect, and that more information is needed to determine the next step.
Shouyue’s interpretation: he’s willing to wait for the effects of policy, but he hasn’t given the market a timeline for easing.
There’s another change: Warsh announced an adjustment to the schedule of future meetings. Seven rate-setting meetings are planned for 2027, and six are expected in 2028, with the remaining meetings devoted to strategic discussions. My takeaway is that going forward, we should pay closer attention to incoming data and be less inclined to bet on specific meeting dates.
3. What does this mean for crypto?
A hawkish policy stance doesn’t automatically mean prices must fall. What the market trades is the gap between the actual outcome and prior expectations.
If investors were already worried about an even tougher message, risk assets could still see a relief rally. Whether that rally can continue will depend on whether expectations for further hikes cool, and whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and spot buying provide support.
For BTC, easing macro pressure is only one condition. For altcoins, we also need to see whether capital continues to spread across the market. Don’t see Bitcoin surge once and declare the bull market back on for the entire market.
4. Shouyue’s approach tonight
Watch the first wave of volatility. If the price breaks upward, wait for a pullback to hold. If it breaks downward, wait for a rebound to confirm the move. If the conditions aren’t met, let the price keep moving.
News creates volatility, structure shows us where to act, and discipline preserves capital.
Keep this in mind tonight: a pause in rate hikes does not mean easing has arrived.
#FOMC #FederalReserve

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In last week's livestream, I said that if the market gives us 84100+ levels, we should go short, with the target still lower. The overall market is also following the script I laid out earlier. Let's wait patiently for things to unfold. Waiting patiently $BTC 76k

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$BTC

The long at $ZEC 1050—I'm just asking, does that feel good?
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$MU

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