MK守约

This article will summarize a series of articles written on the trading sector.
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#站在守约的肩膀上悟自己的交易之道
56。《 为什么你总是在错误的位置加仓 》
55。《 扛单的本质，是不承认自己错了 》

With the CPI month-on-month at 0.4% and the probability of a rate hike at 86%, BTC still “painted a trap” at $79,890: going long or short got you harvested.
Your direction might not be wrong, but your position got knocked out.
At 20:30 Beijing time, the CPI is released.
BTC first got slammed to $76,046. You see core inflation higher than expected, and you chase the short.
An hour and a half later, the price surged to $79,890. Your short position’s stop loss is triggered, and you start to wonder whether the bad news is already “fully priced in.”
Above $79,000, you’re afraid of missing out—so you hesitate to chase longs.
In less than two hours, BTC bottomed at $77,303. From the peak, it gave back $2,587, a drop of about 3.24%. As of 00:43 the next day, the price was around $77,745.

US PPI rose to 5.4%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.92%: BTC fell back to 77,000. Are you still waiting for tomorrow’s CPI to save the day?
Are you waiting for another data release to save your position again?
Yesterday, I saw the Ministry of Finance raise the long-term bond repo limit to $6 billion. Do you think liquidity is coming?
Today I saw that the PPI is only 0.1 percentage points higher than expected. You think it’s not a big deal. Tomorrow, if CPI is a bit more moderate, BTC can regain 80,000 again.
But the market isn’t playing out according to your script.
As of 22:45 CST on September 10, BTC is about $77,336, down 2.14% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday low of $76,676. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly rose to around 4.92%. Brent crude is about $104.83. The US dollar index has returned to around 98.97, and Nasdaq futures continue to trend lower.

Treasuries at 4.8%, and the Treasury boosts long-term bond repos by double: you think it means liquidity easing—so why is BTC still at 78,000, while gold has fallen to 4,360?
When you see “the U.S. Treasury repurchases Treasuries,” what’s your first reaction?
The spigot is turned on.
BTC should be rising.
Gold is ready to take off.
If you add to your position just because of those three words, you may have to pay tuition again today.
As of 06:13 CST on September 9, the US Dollar Index has already fallen to around 98.84. The 10-year Treasury yield is still at around 4.80%. BTC is only about $78,460, while gold has fallen to around $4,361.
The Ministry of Finance really does want to expand long-term bond repos.

Oil jumps to $99, BTC drops to $78k, gold can’t hold $4,400 either—war escalates. Why do safe-haven assets fall first instead?
You buy gold to hide from the war.
You buy BTC to hedge against currency depreciation.
As a result, the war escalated: oil surged to $99, BTC fell to $78,000, and gold also struggled around $4,400.
You might ask:
Have safe-haven assets failed?
No.
You simply drew a straight line—wrongly—between “war escalation” and “safe-haven assets immediately rising.”
What truly rose today wasn’t fear.
It’s the inflation cost.

BTC stays around $79,000, while oil prices surge to $96: can this week’s CPI save the market, or will 10-year U.S. Treasuries first push above 5%?
Last Friday, you might still have been betting on a rate cut.
When Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) hit 162k are released, and BTC breaks below $80,000, you start again believing that September will definitely hike rates.
By today, BTC is still hovering near $79,000, oil prices are already pressing toward $97, and the 10-year Treasury yield has also stalled at 4.78%.
The biggest mistake you’re most likely to make right now isn’t being bullish or bearish.
It’s being slapped in the face by one certainty, only to immediately cling to another one.
A strong NFP report really does give the Fed room to raise rates.

Nonfarm payrolls up 162,000, BTC falls below $80,000: last night’s most expensive mistake was treating rate cuts as a certainty
Those who got trapped last night were probably not the ones who failed to look at the data.
That was far too early to write the conclusion for the data.
Some people saw employment cooling for several consecutive periods and concluded that the Federal Reserve would not dare to raise rates again.
Some people saw BTC climb back above $80,000 and took the rebound for a trend reversal.
And some people, as soon as they had a little unrealized profit, rushed to turn that profit into leverage.
As soon as the nonfarm payrolls data was released, the market took only a few minutes to tear apart all three of these kinds of confidence at once.
In August, U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far above market expectations of about 53,000 to 56,000; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year.

BTC rallies back to 81.5k, gold surges to 4475: it looks like everything is going up—who will show their hand first tonight?
People who dared to chase the rally last night may each have a reason today.
BTC is rising because liquidity is returning.
Gold is rising because risk aversion is coming back.
Stocks are rising because the Fed may not raise rates.
It sounds like every sentence is right.
But if you treat these three types of upswings as the same trade, after the Non-Farm Payrolls come out tonight, you’re very likely to pay tuition again.
As of 04:29 CST on September 4, the BTC futures price is about $81,548 and the XAU futures about $4,475. The US dollar index fell about 0.58% on the day. The yields on US 2-year and 10-year Treasuries dropped to 4.34% and 4.77%, respectively, and the 10-year real yield fell to 2.42%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped to 4.81%—are you still waiting for rate cuts to rescue the market? Is the next stop 5%, or 4.6%?
If you still have high-leverage BTC or overvalued tech stocks in your hands, what you should be paying attention to lately may not be the candlestick chart.
It is the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note.
On September 2, it surged to 4.814% during the day, the highest in nearly three years. The 30-year yield was around 5.26%, and the 2-year yield around 4.38%. [5]
Many people are still waiting for the same old script:
The job market is weakening.
The Fed turns more dovish.
U.S. Treasury yields fall.
Risk assets keep rising.
The problem is that the market is no longer running automatically according to these four lines.

People who missed the train in August are now afraid of missing out.
People who made money in August now want to add leverage.
Both of these kinds of people will become the ones most likely to pay tuition fees in September.
After a big bullish candle is closed, people are most likely to develop a certain illusion:
The trend has already been confirmed; pullbacks are opportunities, and the larger the position size, the more you can make.
A monthly chart can only tell you who won over the past month.
It can’t guarantee that you’ll keep winning next month.
First, look at August’s report card.
BTC rose from about $62,888 to $78,581, up 24.95% in one month; the highest it reached within the month was $81,479.
ETH is up 32.48%, and SOL is up 41.43%.