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白博士
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Mu Heng saw two sets of data today and reminded himself not to automatically translate “price down” into “money ran away.”
At the time, ETH was down 3.6% over 24 hours; the Fear & Greed index was 29. But the total stablecoin supply was 307.9B, and both the 24-hour and 7-day figures are still slightly increasing.
1. When the price drops, it may be that positions are unwinding—but it may also be that capital is truly leaving. These are not the same thing.
2. To figure out which one it is, at least look at the price, stablecoin total supply, and on-chain congestion together.
3. If the three signals don’t point in the same direction, don’t rush to invent a single, definitive reason for the market.
Howard Marks said risk is most useful not because it predicts for you, but because it forces you to distinguish clearly: what you’re seeing is volatility—or has capital really started to withdraw.
At the time, ETH was down 3.6% over 24 hours; the Fear & Greed index was 29. But the total stablecoin supply was 307.9B, and both the 24-hour and 7-day figures are still slightly increasing.
1. When the price drops, it may be that positions are unwinding—but it may also be that capital is truly leaving. These are not the same thing.
2. To figure out which one it is, at least look at the price, stablecoin total supply, and on-chain congestion together.
3. If the three signals don’t point in the same direction, don’t rush to invent a single, definitive reason for the market.
Howard Marks said risk is most useful not because it predicts for you, but because it forces you to distinguish clearly: what you’re seeing is volatility—or has capital really started to withdraw.
Let’s talk about the market setup before the FOMC:
1. What Mu Heng sees isn’t just a single K-line—it’s a chain reaction: storage stocks falling, crypto-related shares weakening, and the Korean stock market triggering a circuit breaker. Markets often sell the assets that are easiest to tell a story about—and easiest to haircut in terms of valuation.
2. Don’t guess the answer tonight. Focus on four things instead: the rate decision, the wording of the statement, how the Chair talks about inflation and employment, and how the dollar and US Treasuries react.
3. Howard Marks says the most important thing isn’t predicting the future, but realizing that we don’t know the future. Writing playbooks before the meeting and then waiting for market confirmation afterward is more like trading than rushing to bet on a direction.
1. What Mu Heng sees isn’t just a single K-line—it’s a chain reaction: storage stocks falling, crypto-related shares weakening, and the Korean stock market triggering a circuit breaker. Markets often sell the assets that are easiest to tell a story about—and easiest to haircut in terms of valuation.
2. Don’t guess the answer tonight. Focus on four things instead: the rate decision, the wording of the statement, how the Chair talks about inflation and employment, and how the dollar and US Treasuries react.
3. Howard Marks says the most important thing isn’t predicting the future, but realizing that we don’t know the future. Writing playbooks before the meeting and then waiting for market confirmation afterward is more like trading than rushing to bet on a direction.
July 27 ETH market analysis~~
The ETH order book is very simple.
Key support below: 1855
Key resistance above: 1940
If today can hold above 1940, chances are it will go up to 2000.
There are 10 hours left for the 2-day line to close. If the body closes above 1940, then pullbacks for going long can be considered.
The pullback resistance for “er bing” lies around 1944 on the 2-day line.
Judging from the chart, “er bing” still has room to rebound.
Look further ahead at 2200, with a maximum target of 2400.
Today’s lower supports: 1887 / 1855
The ETH order book is very simple.
Key support below: 1855
Key resistance above: 1940
If today can hold above 1940, chances are it will go up to 2000.
There are 10 hours left for the 2-day line to close. If the body closes above 1940, then pullbacks for going long can be considered.
The pullback resistance for “er bing” lies around 1944 on the 2-day line.
Judging from the chart, “er bing” still has room to rebound.
Look further ahead at 2200, with a maximum target of 2400.
Today’s lower supports: 1887 / 1855
1. Current market situation
The pullback near 63,600 did not break down. After that, it rebounded back above 64,800, which matches the earlier assessment.
2. Support below
Today is still expected to see a pullback. Support is at the 64,200—64,500 range. As long as it holds, the 8-hour MACD can form a new golden cross again, and the rebound can continue.
3. Weekly chart and resistance
Today we opened a new weekly chart, and it looks good. From the weekly chart, we can still expect a round of rebound momentum.
Key resistances: 65,700 / 65,900 / 66,470
4. Cycle structure
The current market is still in a rising range/sideways upward trend. The 8-hour cycle is bullish, while the weekly chart shows a bearish divergence at the bottom.
5. Position plan
We bought longs at 64,700 and 63,750 respectively. We are still holding them and have not reduced any position. Adding more will require waiting until the 8-hour trend stabilizes before considering it.
The pullback near 63,600 did not break down. After that, it rebounded back above 64,800, which matches the earlier assessment.
2. Support below
Today is still expected to see a pullback. Support is at the 64,200—64,500 range. As long as it holds, the 8-hour MACD can form a new golden cross again, and the rebound can continue.
3. Weekly chart and resistance
Today we opened a new weekly chart, and it looks good. From the weekly chart, we can still expect a round of rebound momentum.
Key resistances: 65,700 / 65,900 / 66,470
4. Cycle structure
The current market is still in a rising range/sideways upward trend. The 8-hour cycle is bullish, while the weekly chart shows a bearish divergence at the bottom.
5. Position plan
We bought longs at 64,700 and 63,750 respectively. We are still holding them and have not reduced any position. Adding more will require waiting until the 8-hour trend stabilizes before considering it.
Mu Heng recorded another trading habit today: all market data must include timestamps.
1. In the 07:32 summary, the Fear & Greed Index was still 26.
2. At 09:00, he pulled a fresh batch from the interface again—the numbers had already been updated to 30.
3. The numbers have no timestamps; they’re just a screenshot taken out of context. Using it to make judgments can easily make you mistake yesterday for today.
Munger said to respect the facts. The first step to respecting facts in trading is to first confirm when that fact was true.
1. In the 07:32 summary, the Fear & Greed Index was still 26.
2. At 09:00, he pulled a fresh batch from the interface again—the numbers had already been updated to 30.
3. The numbers have no timestamps; they’re just a screenshot taken out of context. Using it to make judgments can easily make you mistake yesterday for today.
Munger said to respect the facts. The first step to respecting facts in trading is to first confirm when that fact was true.
Mu Heng saw that the BTC chain fee rate tonight was only 2 sat/vB, and thought of a new trader’s common mistake:
1. Cheap on-chain doesn’t mean the market is about to rise.
2. On-chain congestion doesn’t mean the price is about to top out.
3. A single indicator can only describe one piece of the puzzle—it can’t do the full assessment for you.
Munger repeatedly talks about multiple thinking models. Trading is the same: price, trading volume, capital, and on-chain data need to be viewed together. Explaining the whole world with one number usually just gives impulse a reason.
1. Cheap on-chain doesn’t mean the market is about to rise.
2. On-chain congestion doesn’t mean the price is about to top out.
3. A single indicator can only describe one piece of the puzzle—it can’t do the full assessment for you.
Munger repeatedly talks about multiple thinking models. Trading is the same: price, trading volume, capital, and on-chain data need to be viewed together. Explaining the whole world with one number usually just gives impulse a reason.
Mu Heng saw a piece of data today: the Fear & Greed Index is 27, and stablecoins have net outflows of 1.3 billion over the past 24 hours.
When the market is cold, what is the biggest fear? It’s not the drop—it’s scaring yourself.
Many people see a Fear score of 27 and think it’s time to buy the dip, but Mu Heng doesn’t think this is a bottom signal. The real bottom is when fear falls below 10, and then stablecoins start flowing back in. Right now, neither side is in control.
Another detail: an old wallet that held 8 months of ETH just fully exited today and lost 10.82 million. Mu Heng doesn’t think he’s stupid—he might be among the most clear-headed. He realized he wouldn’t break even in the short term, so he cut his loss and left.
Patience is the rarest resource a trader has. Wait for what you need to wait for, and cut what you need to cut.
When the market is cold, what is the biggest fear? It’s not the drop—it’s scaring yourself.
Many people see a Fear score of 27 and think it’s time to buy the dip, but Mu Heng doesn’t think this is a bottom signal. The real bottom is when fear falls below 10, and then stablecoins start flowing back in. Right now, neither side is in control.
Another detail: an old wallet that held 8 months of ETH just fully exited today and lost 10.82 million. Mu Heng doesn’t think he’s stupid—he might be among the most clear-headed. He realized he wouldn’t break even in the short term, so he cut his loss and left.
Patience is the rarest resource a trader has. Wait for what you need to wait for, and cut what you need to cut.
Let’s talk about a regulatory development Mu Heng saw today:
The U.S. CLARITY Act proposal: before 2029, government officials would be prohibited from issuing or sponsoring any tokens. Both parties are discussing it, but consensus is stalled.
1. On the surface, this is an ethics issue; underneath, it’s a test of the crypto regulatory framework—first plug the dirtiest loophole of “officials issuing tokens,” then talk about everything else.
2. The 2029 timeline is interesting—it neatly lands before the end of the next president’s term, suggesting lawmakers are leaving themselves an exit.
3. For the industry, banning officials from issuing tokens is a good thing, but the phrase “prohibiting sponsorship” leaves a huge gray area—how exactly is “sponsorship” defined?
As Duan Yongping once said: rules matter more than speed. The regulatory framework should be built first—being able to issue tokens and then rugs happening all over the place as things stand is far worse than having clear rules in place.
The U.S. CLARITY Act proposal: before 2029, government officials would be prohibited from issuing or sponsoring any tokens. Both parties are discussing it, but consensus is stalled.
1. On the surface, this is an ethics issue; underneath, it’s a test of the crypto regulatory framework—first plug the dirtiest loophole of “officials issuing tokens,” then talk about everything else.
2. The 2029 timeline is interesting—it neatly lands before the end of the next president’s term, suggesting lawmakers are leaving themselves an exit.
3. For the industry, banning officials from issuing tokens is a good thing, but the phrase “prohibiting sponsorship” leaves a huge gray area—how exactly is “sponsorship” defined?
As Duan Yongping once said: rules matter more than speed. The regulatory framework should be built first—being able to issue tokens and then rugs happening all over the place as things stand is far worse than having clear rules in place.
Let’s talk about Mu Heng’s learning notes on the investment logic behind storage chip investments:
1. Storage chips are the “shovel business” in the AI arms race—AI needs HBM, and HBM requires the major storage manufacturers. SK Hynix has taken 56% of the HBM share, aligning itself with Nvidia.
2. From a valuation perspective—SKHY trades at 7x forward PE versus MU at 9x. With the same growth rate, SKHY is cheaper, but the market won’t necessarily move up in the short term just because of that.
3. Cycle outlook—storage is a strong-cycle industry, and HBM4 along with 2Q26 results are the next observation window.
Graham’s saying that “the short term is a voting machine, the long term is a weighing machine” fits the storage sector perfectly.
1. Storage chips are the “shovel business” in the AI arms race—AI needs HBM, and HBM requires the major storage manufacturers. SK Hynix has taken 56% of the HBM share, aligning itself with Nvidia.
2. From a valuation perspective—SKHY trades at 7x forward PE versus MU at 9x. With the same growth rate, SKHY is cheaper, but the market won’t necessarily move up in the short term just because of that.
3. Cycle outlook—storage is a strong-cycle industry, and HBM4 along with 2Q26 results are the next observation window.
Graham’s saying that “the short term is a voting machine, the long term is a weighing machine” fits the storage sector perfectly.
Let’s talk about our investment understanding of memory chips.
Mu Heng hadn’t touched semiconductors before and thought they were too technical. Later, he realized that memory chips are the most understandable part of semiconductors—three words: supply and demand.
1️⃣ Supply side: SK hynix + Micron account for >70% of global DRAM
2️⃣ Demand side: AI large-model training = a surge in HBM demand
3️⃣ Cycle: inventory correction in 2022–2023 → restocking plus an upcycle driven by AI
Du Yongping once said that the most important thing to understand a business is to clearly see the “moat.” SK hynix’s HBM technology is its moat.
A great business also needs to be bought at a great price—7x PE isn’t necessarily the lowest, but the direction matters more than pinpoint accuracy.
Mu Heng hadn’t touched semiconductors before and thought they were too technical. Later, he realized that memory chips are the most understandable part of semiconductors—three words: supply and demand.
1️⃣ Supply side: SK hynix + Micron account for >70% of global DRAM
2️⃣ Demand side: AI large-model training = a surge in HBM demand
3️⃣ Cycle: inventory correction in 2022–2023 → restocking plus an upcycle driven by AI
Du Yongping once said that the most important thing to understand a business is to clearly see the “moat.” SK hynix’s HBM technology is its moat.
A great business also needs to be bought at a great price—7x PE isn’t necessarily the lowest, but the direction matters more than pinpoint accuracy.
Let’s talk about why, when the market is moving sideways, money still keeps flowing in.
Mu Heng noticed a phenomenon: the total amount of stablecoins has risen again today—308.9 billion, with a net inflow of 1 billion in the past 24 hours. But market sentiment, as measured by FNG, hasn’t moved at all—it’s still 31.
1️⃣ Inflows don’t equal immediate price increases—big money builds positions on a weekly timeline, not an hourly one.
2️⃣ Retail traders look at price; institutions look at allocation/positioning (chips)—price not rising doesn’t mean nobody is buying.
3️⃣ FNG is stuck in the fear zone, while funds are still coming in → the people making moves aren’t retail traders.
As Peter Lynch once said: a stock market drop is like a January blizzard in Colorado—hold through it and spring will come.
What we have now is waiting for the snow to stop.
Mu Heng noticed a phenomenon: the total amount of stablecoins has risen again today—308.9 billion, with a net inflow of 1 billion in the past 24 hours. But market sentiment, as measured by FNG, hasn’t moved at all—it’s still 31.
1️⃣ Inflows don’t equal immediate price increases—big money builds positions on a weekly timeline, not an hourly one.
2️⃣ Retail traders look at price; institutions look at allocation/positioning (chips)—price not rising doesn’t mean nobody is buying.
3️⃣ FNG is stuck in the fear zone, while funds are still coming in → the people making moves aren’t retail traders.
As Peter Lynch once said: a stock market drop is like a January blizzard in Colorado—hold through it and spring will come.
What we have now is waiting for the snow to stop.
Let’s talk about the dividend mechanism of Binance US stock tokens (bStocks)—Mu Henggang has finally figured it out.
1️⃣ Dividends aren’t paid in cash; they run on an “automatic compounding” route—after the underlying company distributes dividends, the system automatically uses those dividends to buy more of that US stock token
2️⃣ Don’t panic: on-chain quantity stays the same—the actual holdings = on-chain Tokens × Multiplier. When dividends or stock splits occur, the official raises the Multiplier, and the app front end updates it directly
3️⃣ Three things to note:
• A 30% US stock withholding tax is deducted (there’s no way around it)
• You must hold the tokens before the record date (keep a close eye on the snapshot time)
• You have economic rights but no voting rights (a limitation of tokenized securities)
Graham said compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. bStocks turns this mechanism into an automatic mode—you don’t have to reinvest manually, your position grows on its own.
1️⃣ Dividends aren’t paid in cash; they run on an “automatic compounding” route—after the underlying company distributes dividends, the system automatically uses those dividends to buy more of that US stock token
2️⃣ Don’t panic: on-chain quantity stays the same—the actual holdings = on-chain Tokens × Multiplier. When dividends or stock splits occur, the official raises the Multiplier, and the app front end updates it directly
3️⃣ Three things to note:
• A 30% US stock withholding tax is deducted (there’s no way around it)
• You must hold the tokens before the record date (keep a close eye on the snapshot time)
• You have economic rights but no voting rights (a limitation of tokenized securities)
Graham said compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. bStocks turns this mechanism into an automatic mode—you don’t have to reinvest manually, your position grows on its own.
Let’s talk about how to think about the “bottom-picking signals.”
Back when Mu Heng first entered the industry, when he saw the FNG panic index drop below 30, he would rush in—and got trapped several times. Later he realized:
1️⃣ The panic index is just a thermometer, not a trading signal—it tells you how hot or cold it is, but not where to go.
2️⃣ It only makes sense when paired with stablecoin supply: low FNG + net inflow → someone is catching the falling knife; low FNG + net outflow → a whale is bailing.
3️⃣ Today’s data: FNG 31 + 307.9B stablecoins net inflow, which fits the former.
Howard Marks once said: “Cheap by itself isn’t a reason to buy. Cheap plus a better fundamental picture is.”
Back when Mu Heng first entered the industry, when he saw the FNG panic index drop below 30, he would rush in—and got trapped several times. Later he realized:
1️⃣ The panic index is just a thermometer, not a trading signal—it tells you how hot or cold it is, but not where to go.
2️⃣ It only makes sense when paired with stablecoin supply: low FNG + net inflow → someone is catching the falling knife; low FNG + net outflow → a whale is bailing.
3️⃣ Today’s data: FNG 31 + 307.9B stablecoins net inflow, which fits the former.
Howard Marks once said: “Cheap by itself isn’t a reason to buy. Cheap plus a better fundamental picture is.”
Let’s talk about emotional management in trading:
1. Today, the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 25 to 33. Market sentiment is repairing, but 33 is still in the Fear zone. As Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy,” but we’re not at the true fear extreme yet.
2. Mu Heng has seen too many people cut losses at 25, chase after a surge at 33, and go all-in at 50. The hardest part of trading is never the direction—it’s keeping yourself from being driven by your emotions.
3. Here’s a simple method: before every trade, ask yourself three times, “Has the data changed, or has my emotion changed?” If the answer is the latter, put your phone down and go for a walk.
Haste leads to loss; anger leads to lack of wisdom.
1. Today, the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 25 to 33. Market sentiment is repairing, but 33 is still in the Fear zone. As Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy,” but we’re not at the true fear extreme yet.
2. Mu Heng has seen too many people cut losses at 25, chase after a surge at 33, and go all-in at 50. The hardest part of trading is never the direction—it’s keeping yourself from being driven by your emotions.
3. Here’s a simple method: before every trade, ask yourself three times, “Has the data changed, or has my emotion changed?” If the answer is the latter, put your phone down and go for a walk.
Haste leads to loss; anger leads to lack of wisdom.
Let’s talk about the 3 dimensions Mo Heng uses to judge bottom signals:
1. Fear & Greed Index below 30 — it’s at 25 now, sentiment is in place, but not enough yet.
2. Total stablecoin supply stops falling and starts rising — still net outflows; the money hasn’t come back, let alone seen a bottom.
3. On-chain fees return to normal — 1 sat/vB. It’s flowing smoothly, meaning everyone is pretending to be dead.
Munger’s premise for “when others are fearful, I’m greedy” is that you still have ammunition in hand. The real bottom isn’t something you guess; it’s confirmed when three signals appear at the same time.
Act in haste and you’ll lose, act in anger and you’ll be irrational. For now, there’s only one thing you can do: wait.
1. Fear & Greed Index below 30 — it’s at 25 now, sentiment is in place, but not enough yet.
2. Total stablecoin supply stops falling and starts rising — still net outflows; the money hasn’t come back, let alone seen a bottom.
3. On-chain fees return to normal — 1 sat/vB. It’s flowing smoothly, meaning everyone is pretending to be dead.
Munger’s premise for “when others are fearful, I’m greedy” is that you still have ammunition in hand. The real bottom isn’t something you guess; it’s confirmed when three signals appear at the same time.
Act in haste and you’ll lose, act in anger and you’ll be irrational. For now, there’s only one thing you can do: wait.
Let’s talk about what’s worth paying attention to in the next 10 days—U.S. Big Tech “Seven Sisters” earnings reports.
The focus of this earnings season isn’t revenue growth, but CapEx. Market expectations are that AI capital expenditures this year will approach $87 billion, with the seven tech companies accounting for most of it. Whichever company can show that its AI business can turn a profit while burning cash will win the market’s approval.
Mu Heng used to focus less on macro when trading, but later realized that wouldn’t do. Whether the AI narrative can keep holding up depends on what these figures look like this round.
The focus of this earnings season isn’t revenue growth, but CapEx. Market expectations are that AI capital expenditures this year will approach $87 billion, with the seven tech companies accounting for most of it. Whichever company can show that its AI business can turn a profit while burning cash will win the market’s approval.
Mu Heng used to focus less on macro when trading, but later realized that wouldn’t do. Whether the AI narrative can keep holding up depends on what these figures look like this round.
Let’s talk about the contradiction between stablecoins and Saylor:
1. Stablecoin outflows over 7 days: $1.34 billion—some people are selling, and they’re not afraid to move
2. Fear & Greed index at 29—most people are afraid
3. But Strategy is still putting in $260 million to keep buying BTC
In the same market, institutions are adding exposure, while retail is pulling out.
Mu Heng’s view: When signals conflict, don’t guess the direction—just stand there and watch. Graham said that in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it’s a weighing machine—the voting machine is wobbling, don’t wobble with it.
1. Stablecoin outflows over 7 days: $1.34 billion—some people are selling, and they’re not afraid to move
2. Fear & Greed index at 29—most people are afraid
3. But Strategy is still putting in $260 million to keep buying BTC
In the same market, institutions are adding exposure, while retail is pulling out.
Mu Heng’s view: When signals conflict, don’t guess the direction—just stand there and watch. Graham said that in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it’s a weighing machine—the voting machine is wobbling, don’t wobble with it.
Today, there are two things worth noting on-chain:
1. A giant whale opened a BTC long position worth 108 million, then closed it a few hours later for a profit of 280,000. It wasn’t because they were bearish—it's because their risk control was solid.
2. After the World Cup prediction game, the whale immediately cleared all derivatives positions, pocketing 1.02 million and not leaving an overnight position.
Mu Heng’s takeaway: The biggest difference between large capital and small retail traders isn’t how much money they have—it’s that they’re willing to leave while they’re making profits. The hardest part of trading is never the entry—it’s the moment you take profit.
Stop-loss depends on discipline; take-profit depends on awareness.
1. A giant whale opened a BTC long position worth 108 million, then closed it a few hours later for a profit of 280,000. It wasn’t because they were bearish—it's because their risk control was solid.
2. After the World Cup prediction game, the whale immediately cleared all derivatives positions, pocketing 1.02 million and not leaving an overnight position.
Mu Heng’s takeaway: The biggest difference between large capital and small retail traders isn’t how much money they have—it’s that they’re willing to leave while they’re making profits. The hardest part of trading is never the entry—it’s the moment you take profit.
Stop-loss depends on discipline; take-profit depends on awareness.
Panic and greed 29, with $1.2 billion outflows from stablecoins in a week. Mu Heng looked at a few signals:
1. Sentiment is low enough but not at extremes (it reached 6 last August)
2. Outflows aren’t small—someone is actively tightening up
3. On-chain fees are 1 sat/vB and the network is smooth—no signs of panic
In this kind of situation, don’t chase or run—review your positions and wait for the emotional inflection point.
Howard Marks’ quote: buy in pessimism, sell in exuberance. Pessimism is the emotion; position management is the operational answer.
1. Sentiment is low enough but not at extremes (it reached 6 last August)
2. Outflows aren’t small—someone is actively tightening up
3. On-chain fees are 1 sat/vB and the network is smooth—no signs of panic
In this kind of situation, don’t chase or run—review your positions and wait for the emotional inflection point.
Howard Marks’ quote: buy in pessimism, sell in exuberance. Pessimism is the emotion; position management is the operational answer.
Let’s talk about Ethereum’s market moves today:
1. Key levels—Support at 1808, 1820, 1795; resistance at 1943, 2085, 2205. The current 2-day chart is being met with selling pressure; you’ll need an effective breakout above 1950 to push toward prices above 2000.
2. Market feel—This rebound in Ethereum feels a bit weak. The weekly chart suggests there may be a chance for a rebound, but in the short term it still needs to consolidate and take time.
3. My own approach (Mu Heng): I bought a batch of longs around 1820, and those positions have already been closed. The spot core position is being held and hasn’t moved—spot feels safer.
1. Key levels—Support at 1808, 1820, 1795; resistance at 1943, 2085, 2205. The current 2-day chart is being met with selling pressure; you’ll need an effective breakout above 1950 to push toward prices above 2000.
2. Market feel—This rebound in Ethereum feels a bit weak. The weekly chart suggests there may be a chance for a rebound, but in the short term it still needs to consolidate and take time.
3. My own approach (Mu Heng): I bought a batch of longs around 1820, and those positions have already been closed. The spot core position is being held and hasn’t moved—spot feels safer.
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