Cruise橘子哥

#股票财报季
Google's Q3 market consensus is for revenue of approximately $127–128 billion and EPS of approximately $2.94–$3.02.
I predict another modest beat, with revenue around $128 billion and EPS around $3.05–$3.10. There are three reasons:

First, revenue is relatively stable. Last quarter, revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24.2% year over year. Search revenue grew about 16.8%, suggesting AI has not yet significantly disrupted search advertising. As long as Search continues to grow at a double-digit rate and YouTube and subscriptions maintain their momentum, reaching around $128 billion should not be difficult.

Second, Cloud is the main source of potential upside. Last quarter, Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, up about 82% year over year, with operating profit of $8.8 billion. If Cloud revenue approaches $28 billion this quarter and its margin holds at around 35%, both revenue and profit could exceed expectations. Conversely, if Cloud comes in below $27 billion, the market may start worrying about AI demand and capacity.

Third, we shouldn't be blindly optimistic about profits. Capital expenditures were $44.9 billion last quarter, and free cash flow was already negative $5.86 billion. This spending won't all be expensed in the current quarter, but it will gradually weigh on profits through depreciation. Fortunately, the market isn't extrapolating last quarter's unusually high EPS of $9.11; instead, it has brought normal quarterly expectations back to around $3. So a modest EPS beat shouldn't be too difficult.

The Dow rose more than 1,500 points overnight, up 3%, and the Democrats won both the House and the Senate. Money is shifting from AI hardware to platform giants. Microsoft rose nearly 7%, topping $550 and hitting a record high, with a market cap of $4.1 trillion. Nvidia fell 3% the same day—such a stark contrast within the same index, haha.

With Binance USDC savings offering a 10% return, even the big shots would come by to take a look and grab a bite, right?
And sure enough, Mr. Yu came sharpening his knives—haha.

Mr. Yu says: Last night’s 6% surge in Ethereum came just in time. I happened to convert it into U and put it into Binance savings. Then I can use the interest to buy a little more Ethereum. In other words, I earn more on both ends—that’s life in the high-roller neighborhood.

Pretty awesome, huh? The big shots know their stuff.

While I’m at it, showing some support for Big Cousin and Binance. Hehe ✊

Meta closed at $630 last night, up a little over 1%. That same day, it issued bonds in Europe. It had initially planned to raise just €9 billion, but orders piled up to €53 billion—more than five times that amount. Its first-ever euro bond issue was this popular, and the longest-dated tranche stretches beyond 30 years.

The bond market’s attitude is a bit different from the stock market’s. Meta’s free cash flow has already turned negative, and it’s spending more on capital expenditures than it’s earning from operations. But bond buyers are after the coupon; they’re in no rush to find out what year AI will pay off. They’re happy to hand over the money first and ask questions later.

The other interesting question is whether these bonds are expensive. The fact that Meta is willing to go beyond 30 years suggests that even the company itself can’t say for sure when it’ll recoup this round of investment in computing power.

$ZAMA is currently worth $0.07. If I'd held on to the 160,000 I got for free back then, they'd be worth 160,000 × $0.07 = $11,200 now. Damn, that feels good. But before the New Year, I lost it all trading futures—not a penny of profit. The main thing is, this shit is just infuriating: they opened futures trading before the public auction, before the token even launched. It opened at around $0.20, and I was still longing at $0.10. Then the auction price was $0.05, and even at Binance's half-price launch price of $0.025, it still fell below the issue price. What the hell is this?! They're all idiots.

Absolutely wild! The market is ripping!

Just like that, the bull is back! Hurry back~

Why the rally? Maybe it’s been falling for too long.

One massive bullish candle, and the whole army comes running $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin’s above 80,000 now, up more than 4%.
Ethereum’s above 2,400, up more than 6%.

When it comes to twisting the knife, Sun the Grifter is top-notch: he wants the traffic and the money.

The president’s prestige doesn’t count for much anymore. Who can blame them, with a family that’s so CS? $WLFI . Honestly, without a bit of support from Sun the Grifter back then, poor Putin would’ve had a rough time~

Burn it all down, Trump coin. $TRUMP
This guy has been disgusting for ages. The first thing he did before taking office was launch a Trump coin. Damn, that’s when I got liquidated. Fucking bloodsucker.

The Democrats have the edge in this midterm election. I’m happy. If there’s no turnaround later, Trump’s going to have a rough time. But it’s fine—I’ve already made plenty.

Also, stop starting wars and slapping on tariffs for no reason. I swear, I can’t stand this old geezer~

Memory price lists in Huaqiangbei are more straightforward than research reports. A 32GB DDR5 memory stick running at 6,000MHz cost 2,600–2,700 yuan in April; now it’s quoted at 3,500–4,500 yuan, with high-end brands topping 5,000 yuan. A shop owner said lots of people ask about prices, but those buying in real bulk keep comparing quotes. One storage company said DDR prices have recently risen by 30%, and customers have accepted the increase. Yesterday, SanDisk rose nearly 5%, while Micron, Western Digital and Seagate all gained more than 2%.

$PONS it’s already at eight points today, Pons I’ll trust you one more time, don’t just come in and pump it once again, if you pump it too much it’ll turn into the boy who cried wolf story, I advise the big players to be more careful 🤨

It was surging just a second ago, and now it’s plunging again. This market is unbelievable. At this rate, U.S. stocks are going to drag us down tonight.

Poor me— I just added to my Nvidia position!

Can I say this big rally right now is thanks to China's A-shares today? Hahaha

This morning, everyone was still wailing and it felt like prices were about to fall below their IPO prices. Who knew that this afternoon, China's A-shares would shoot up with a huge bullish candle? Now crypto and U.S. stocks are starting to rebound too. My account went straight from being in the red to a few points in the green. Damn, that feels good.

Yeah, Bitcoin was due for a rise, and SanDisk was too. Haha.

Rising memory costs have finally hit Apple. The results weren't bad: revenue was $114.5 billion, up 12%. But gross margin is expected to fall from nearly 48% to 45%–46% next quarter, due to rising memory costs and continued investment in Siri AI. New CEO Ternus hosted his first earnings call and was criticized by the media for speaking entirely in marketing jargon. Revenue in Greater China rose 21%, but still came in over 6% below expectations. The stock fell nearly 2%.

A $115 billion all-stock deal—the largest merger in semiconductor history—is set. Marvell is buying optical communications component maker Lumentum, with Lumentum shareholders receiving 4.5 Marvell shares for each share they own and holding 67% of the combined company. Jensen Huang was asked for his opinion before the announcement and gave it the nod. But on the day the deal was announced, Marvell rose by less than half a percent, while Lumentum fell by less than one percent. The market wasn't impressed.

$PREDICT Predict What's going on now? It feels like the opportunity wasn't handled well. I'm seeing a lot of negative sentiment now.

Airdrop claims are gone too~ Can someone explain?

That said, one thing is certain: before TGE, the pre-market price probably won't fall too far, right? After all, the backing is there~ It was just delayed a little.

AMD rose 7% after hours, closing at just over $480. What really sent the stock higher was that it also put 2027 on the table: revenue growth of more than 80%, with data centers taking the lead. Not many chip companies are showing the market the numbers for two years from now this early.

This quarter was strong in its own right. Revenue was $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, with data center revenue at $8.5 billion, nearly doubling. Guidance for next quarter came in at $17 billion, also above expectations. The numbers beat across the board, but the way the stock had fallen in the days before made it clear that nobody wanted to bet ahead of time.

The business mix is still lopsided. Data centers are now the bulk of revenue, while gaming is on the decline—a case of plugging one leak while another springs.

Anthropic had barely submitted its prospectus when its third-quarter figures leaked: revenue of $17 billion, up 12-fold year over year. It’s still losing money, but losses narrowed by more than half from the previous quarter. Even more striking are its purchase commitments: computing contracts with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft totaling $895.4 billion, stretching through 2045. But institutional investors looking to buy into the IPO are pushing for a lower valuation, seeking $1.5 trillion—well below the $2 trillion previously discussed.

AMD reported third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year. Data center revenue nearly doubled, accounting for more than 60% of total revenue. After the earnings report, shares climbed 7% in after-hours trading—the gain during the regular session was nothing by comparison.

The contrast was elsewhere: gaming revenue fell 40%, and the combined client and gaming segments both shrank. Lisa Su struck a confident tone, saying demand for servers was only just getting started. The company’s fourth-quarter guidance also came in above analyst expectations. Data center is racing ahead, while the PC side keeps sliding.

Intel also reported a big jump in data center revenue last Friday, but its stock plunged that day. The market was worried its guidance wouldn’t live up to expectations. This time, AMD put figures for next year on the table early, helping to ease some of the panic after several days of declines. Meta’s Helios racks are already up and running, and AMD also invested in Meta’s latest equity financing round.

#币安10·30安全事件调查报告 has pretty much returned to normal. October has been a rough month for Binance these past two years—first 10.11, and now 10.30. For most other exchanges, these would be devastating blows, but Binance is the world's number-one exchange, so it has the capability to handle this. And not only handle it, but handle it beautifully 😆
Next, BNB should steadily move upward—just like the U.S. stock market has over the past few years.

$ZEC Doesn't everyone think Zcash is looking pretty strong right now? It still hasn't dropped below 1100, and it's still the biggest gainer today. Clearly, there's a big player behind it. If there's a chance, I should definitely pick up some of this old privacy coin too. It's got hype, a narrative, and money flowing in—all much better than your average altcoin 🤓