华尔街之猫-DQ

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Today all day there’s pressure from above and support from below—a textbook oscillation building up energy.

What you can make today is entirely for those who strictly execute the trades on the right side:
Those with volume breaking above 800 aggressively follow the momentum.
Those with a volume breakdown below 796, if the subsequent pullback is weak, then follow through.
Don’t make predictions too early, don’t chase prices at high levels, and don’t blindly copy trades at low levels.

At the moment, the steadiest logic isn’t to predict the market’s direction—it’s to wait for the price/market action to give a signal before acting.

If there’s no breakdown signal, stay on the sidelines.
If a breakout signal appears, go with the trend.
Today’s price action perfectly confirms this: in a range-bound market, patience and rules are far more important than frequent trading.

$BTC #比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 #Solana现货ETF累计净流入创纪录12.2亿美元

The plan has been published:

$BTC #比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 #BTC触及80000美元

The big pie surged from 755 to 812 this morning, with the total liquidation across the entire network reaching $793 million within 24 hours.

The previously judged trend of holding the 80,000 level and moving higher has been realized. After the price broke above 80,000, it pushed up to 812, then cooled off slightly. The current long-side structure remains intact. The key now is for 80,000 to turn from resistance into support, so that it can open further upside room.

From the perspective of liquidity:
Above 810–830 there is about $2.0 billion in liquidity waiting to be triggered; below 730–785, another $4.9 billion is also stacked. The risk of a deeper pullback below remains.

Key levels in the near term:
777 below and 812–819 above are the liquidity magnet zones where price is highly likely to test within the day.

The direction of the “smart money” setup is also clear:
In the 815–830 area, a large amount of sell pressure from stacked sell orders exists—this is a high-level distribution/exit zone. The 745–785 range is viewed as a value zone for accumulation at lower levels.

The Coinbase premium has returned to healthy levels. Leverage sentiment has cooled down, and spot buying provides support. These are relatively benign signals on-chain after a big surge.

In one sentence:
Regaining 80,000 is a bullish signal
In the short term, watch the two main liquidity zones: 777 and 812
Upside target is 812–830 (the sell-order/stop-win zone)
Below: $4.9 billion liquidity is stacked; the 730–785 zone carries the risk of a deep pullback—class dismissed

$BTC #比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 #Solana现货ETF累计净流入创纪录12.2亿美元

The “Big Pancake 830” could be said to be the despairing peak of the Kun Tou.

Once there is a valid breakthrough here, it means the long-term trend has officially reversed. For the Kun Tou trapped at the bottom, getting back to break even will be extremely difficult.

Looking at the defense positions on the pullback, the key major support below is at 715. Based on my current judgment, the probability of falling below this area again is not high.

Of course, you should still prepare for the low-probability scenario. In extreme situations, I can’t rule out the possibility of revisiting 670, but that would be a small-probability event.

A trend reversal isn’t just a sentence—it depends on whether key levels can be truly and firmly taken. The market surface forever needs to prepare psychologically for two different scenarios at the same time.

$BTC #比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 #Solana现货ETF累计净流入创纪录12.2亿美元

The next pullback for the big pie (BTC) may not necessarily land at a specific price level. It’s more likely to produce a jagged, zigzag-like range where price keeps bouncing around as it pushes out new highs.

If you bought the BTC spot at a low position, you can simply ignore this kind of back-and-forth volatility—just hold calmly.

But if you’re relying on technical analysis for short-term trades or month-end trading, at this moment your priority should be on defense rather than offense. Be more cautious than the urge to chase a surge.

Especially watch out for “shanzhai” (copycat) month-end trades: BTC only pulls back by around 5%, but many counterfeit or alt targets can drop directly by 20%. This is the most realistic tactical risk right now.

Be clear about this: in this steep, rapid upward trend, indicators like overbought conditions and top divergence may be temporarily suppressed by market sentiment and the momentum of the rally—but they won’t fail forever.

The logic is straightforward: when the trend is safe, go ahead and eat big.

Don’t wait until other people are getting ready to exit and rest before you rush in thinking “this feels great.” By then, entering can easily cause you to suffer a major loss.

$BTC $ETH #BTC触及80000美元 #哈萨克斯坦下调石油产量预期至9600万吨 #日本9至10月不再释放石油储备

Just sent and already arrived at the winning stop point $BTC #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%

Big Pancake makes a new high, but the rally is driven by small, choppy bullish candles with reduced volume—there’s a lack of a strong trend and big bullish candlesticks, so upward momentum is insufficient.

Reclaiming above 795, whether it can break and hold the prior high at 799 is key:

A breakout could target 812; if it can’t push through, watch out for a double top. The 80,000 level may trap holders, bringing heavier sell pressure—be careful of a misleading fake breakout.

Only if it breaks below 778 will the double top be officially confirmed. Then look toward 763.

Personal suggestion: wait for a pullback to enter, or if it holds firmly above 828 and then retests, you can consider making a move. If conditions aren’t met, stay on the sidelines.

If you chase after a volume-backed breakout on the right side at 798, remember: if 794 breaks down with volume and the rebound cannot be recovered, then it will be time to cut.

On the hourly timeframe, if it breaks and holds above 798, look toward 812.

$BTC $ETH #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币周涨23.6% #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点

This single item is arranged just like this, 83,000 is the winning counterhand, and you enter the trade.

Short-term plan real-time alerts.

$BTC #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%

The big round coin has consolidated for more than two months before breaking upward. The weekly increase is over 20%, and the probability of falling back to the bottom of the original consolidation is close to 0.

But history doesn’t guarantee the future, and it doesn’t mean it will be absolutely impossible to pull back.

There is a good opportunity to trade this week. If the CPI inflation data released on Wednesday comes in higher than expected, the big round coin will face short-term pressure.

Don’t panic—pullbacks are the window to get in.

$BTC $ETH #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%

Market sentiment has clearly rebounded, and bullish confidence is being repaired—that is the underlying momentum that allows this line to continue moving.

But be clear about reality: that previous phase of violent upward surge has already ended. Going forward, it will most likely be a series of impulsive spikes to push higher. With the heavy pressure zone around 820 in place, whether price can effectively break through remains questionable.

For friends trading this, don’t force yourself into a large position. If you want to participate, only do short-term trades. Rigorously follow take-profit and stop-loss rules to prevent getting trapped at high levels.

From the 4-hour trend, there are already signs of a top divergence.
If the high level can’t sustain rising volume to the upside, the likelihood of baiting upward moves and the distribution of supply from high-level holders at the current position will keep increasing.

Opportunities still exist, but absolutely don’t blindly chase. This is suitable for short-term trading—take the profit and leave. Keep the posture cool, and make moves fast.

$BTC #BTC触及80000美元 #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%

This hasn’t hit 1,000 points yet—where will it top out? To be honest, I don’t know. Just wait for the pullback.

$BTC #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6% #以太坊ETF周净流入6.97亿美元

787 target reached; current price is 790. You can reduce the cabin now. Highest 793. Let Li Run Boh make a move for 796

$BTC #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6% #以太坊ETF周净流入6.97亿美元

On the daily timeframe, for the big pie, only focus on the key defensive level at 742.

No matter how many pullbacks or back-and-forth moves happen in between, as long as the daily chart does not close below 742, the overall situation remains under control.

Once the daily chart effectively breaks below 742 and it cannot be reclaimed, the structure of the daily “head” pattern will be declared invalid, and a deeper pullback is likely to come. The price will then revisit the daily FVG gap. 742 is the daily “head/peak” boundary line.

For resistance above, watch 822.

If 822 is successfully broken, the daily rebound can continue to extend. If it can’t be pushed through, then most likely price will remain in a broad consolidation range between 742 and 822—this is the most realistic trend right now.

In addition, the daily MACD stays above the zero line, indicating that the “head” pattern is still in control at present. So the plan should mainly be to look for pullbacks to buy (buy on dips). Trades should be for short-term setups only as an auxiliary.

Now price is at high levels. No matter what you do, your stop-loss must be set.

$BTC #比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6% #以太坊ETF周净流入6.97亿美元

Big pancake is really strong or not real strong—just focus on the two key locations and that’s enough.

① Current 774 is right at a strong resistance from the 50-week EMA,
this spot is the main concentrated sell-pressure zone.

② Bull market confirmation curve: 820‑830
You need to have strong volume and hold above 817 (50-week SMA) to count as an official bull market start signal.

Before it’s confirmed, no matter how aggressive the rally is, it can only be classified as a bear-market rebound.

With the 77k pancake, the probability of a bull market is 40%; once it holds at 83k, the probability can jump to 80% or more.

Trading is the same: avoiding highly uncertain zones is far more important than trying to bet on catching a bottom.

$BTC $ETH #BTC突破7万大关 #布伦特原油跌1.87%

On August 18, the storage sector saw a brutal sell-off. SNDK and MU all fell sharply, and many people felt the market was cooling off.

But the capital flow data tells a different story: over the past month, DRAM still recorded a net inflow of USD 2.08 billion. After the plunge, leveraged long products attracted capital, short products saw capital flee, and money flowed into storage on big dips—buying at the bottom.

The storage and crypto markets share the same pool of “hot money” risk appetite. Since storage capital didn’t see a large-scale exodus, it indirectly suggests that the market’s overall risk appetite hasn’t completely collapsed.

However, inflows don’t mean there won’t be further choppy consolidation and “washing out.” Whether it’s the U.S. stock market or the crypto market, when faced with volatility, risk control always comes first.

$SNDK #标普500期货下跌 #金价逼近三个月高位 #三星跌8.97%拖累KOSPI跌3.24%

The big pancake is currently trapped in the 777–763 channel range.

Yesterday, after a brief fake breakdown below 763, it was quickly pulled back within the channel; at dawn, after a brief fake breakout upward through the 777 resistance, it then fell back to the lower side.

Going up and down repeatedly, like a needle being inserted back and forth, without a clear direction—honestly, there isn’t much opportunity worth taking action on such a sideways move.

It’s like a donkey pulling a millstone—turning endlessly in circles. As long as it hasn’t broken out of the range, it’s better to watch and do less.

There are two breakout conditions:
1. A volume-backed move that holds steady above 777 will trigger a rebound, with targets at the prior high zone of 787–796
2. A volume-backed breakdown below 763, and if the subsequent retest cannot reclaim, then it will test downward at 755–744

Trading plan:

Aggressive approach—wait for the right-side signal: only consider following if there is a volume-backed breakout above 777. If there’s a volume-backed breakdown below 763 and the retest lacks strength, then look for downside—make sure you set your stop-loss properly.

If the market doesn’t give a signal, just wait quietly. The worst for trend followers is rushing into a trade; impatience often leads to getting hurt.

$BTC $ETH #阿里巴巴港股募资102亿美元 #BTC突破7万大关

Looking at the weekly K-line trend of the big pancake right now—even if this current phase is only a rebound—at the 830 level, it still needs to be touched to test it.

The focus is not on whether price actually reaches that exact spot; the key is where the weekly K-line ultimately closes.

Only if the weekly chart directly and effectively breaks through and holds would we be able to talk about the real starting point of a bull market.

You can look back and compare the week K evolution from February to March 2023—history will provide a reference.

Friends, breakthroughs from trading never happen all at once. Reaching a level doesn’t mean an immediate reversal. The result of the weekly close is the most hard-core confirmation signal. Don’t be misled by the short-term spike higher when it just happens to hit the mark.

$BTC $ETH #英伟达AI服务器涨价超15% #BTC突破7万大关

Do you think there’s a possibility that the “auntie” (ETH) could finish this round of bull-bear transition earlier than the big pie (BTC)?

The daily chart has already firmly closed above the previous high of 2460. Judging solely from the daily structure, the old bear-market pattern—where higher highs kept moving down and lower lows continued to trend lower—has already been directly broken.

But a daily breakout can only be considered an initial signal; the final logic still needs to be confirmed by the weekly chart.

If, going forward, the weekly chart can close with a real body and hold above 2460, it would greatly strengthen the judgment that the bear market has ended. Then 1500 has a very high chance of becoming the bottom of this ETH bear market.

As for the big pie, it is currently stuck around a key watershed level and is caught in back-and-forth testing. In contrast, the “auntie” has already broken the structure first on the daily chart.

That said, you should also be reminded: a structural reversal doesn’t mean a one-way move with no pullbacks. Even after the bear-market bottom is confirmed, there will still be intense shakeouts along the way.

Even if we’re right about the structure, we still must not loosen up on capacity/position sizing and risk control.

$ETH $BTC #比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 #SandboxSAND疑遭无限增发漏洞

From a daily-chart perspective, the current round of upswing has already reached the top of the first phase, so the board has a need for adjustment.

At the moment, chasing highs has a very poor cost-performance ratio—it’s only suitable for extremely light positions for short-term trades.

The first phase of the bullish run always involves a violent surge and doesn’t give you a chance to board from a low level. After chasing the highs and accumulating risk, an adjustment is definitely coming.

Most likely, there will first be consolidation in the high range, and perhaps there will be one more small push higher. Then the market will start its adjustment. If you missed the bottom, you can consider getting in after the adjustment.

Remember what I always say: we only do what we can understand. If you can’t figure it out or can’t read it, just wait.

The market is always full of surprises: when everyone is collectively bearish, it doesn’t fall. When everyone on the internet is calling for a bull market, a big adjustment may be right around the corner.

Remember: good food doesn’t fear being late—don’t rush. Wait patiently.

$BTC #比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 #BPI吁FinCEN扩大稳定币身份识别至二级市场