镰刀判官
758 Posts
镰刀判官
地图元帅 键盘政治家 历史发明家 赛博诸葛亮
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Remember one thing: Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, and Canada are, in essence, organs on the United States.
Whatever you call the euro, the US dollar, the Korean won, the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar, or the Canadian dollar—
in essence, it’s all the US dollar itself.
Now that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have blown up, these countries are trapped in vicious inflation; in reality, it’s the entire US dollar system that’s collapsing.
The United States now is like a late-stage multiple metastasized cancer patient.
Liver, gallbladder, lungs, esophagus—every organ is covered with tumors (printing money to produce malignant inflation).
Each tumor in each organ needs nutrients (oil, supplies, agricultural products, minerals).
But in the dollar system, besides the $60 trillion asset bubble, there is nothing in real terms.
So naturally, each tumor competes to grab nutrients, and in the end it drags the United States down with it and they die together.
$SKHY
Whatever you call the euro, the US dollar, the Korean won, the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar, or the Canadian dollar—
in essence, it’s all the US dollar itself.
Now that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have blown up, these countries are trapped in vicious inflation; in reality, it’s the entire US dollar system that’s collapsing.
The United States now is like a late-stage multiple metastasized cancer patient.
Liver, gallbladder, lungs, esophagus—every organ is covered with tumors (printing money to produce malignant inflation).
Each tumor in each organ needs nutrients (oil, supplies, agricultural products, minerals).
But in the dollar system, besides the $60 trillion asset bubble, there is nothing in real terms.
So naturally, each tumor competes to grab nutrients, and in the end it drags the United States down with it and they die together.
$SKHY
镰刀判官
·
--
Currency Nuclear Weapon: Currency Check
Last night, the yen shorts were blown out. The market’s first reaction was highly consistent:
They say the Bank of Japan stepped in—burning foreign reserves in Tokyo to support the yen—but it was all wrong.
Is Trump using a currency exchange nuclear weapon: a currency check!
At 21:30 Beijing time, the New York Fed, at the behest of the Treasury Department, called major banks one by one: “What’s your current USD/JPY rate?”
This is called a currency check (Rate Check) in the FX market. In America’s foreign exchange toolbox, it’s a nuclear deterrence signal:
If people don’t step onto the field and money isn’t spent, they only tell the market, “I’m coming soon.”
Did the U.S. actually buy Japanese yen? No, there were zero transactions.
They say the Bank of Japan stepped in—burning foreign reserves in Tokyo to support the yen—but it was all wrong.
Is Trump using a currency exchange nuclear weapon: a currency check!
At 21:30 Beijing time, the New York Fed, at the behest of the Treasury Department, called major banks one by one: “What’s your current USD/JPY rate?”
This is called a currency check (Rate Check) in the FX market. In America’s foreign exchange toolbox, it’s a nuclear deterrence signal:
If people don’t step onto the field and money isn’t spent, they only tell the market, “I’m coming soon.”
Did the U.S. actually buy Japanese yen? No, there were zero transactions.
$BTC is coming—if you’re short, you’re right!
Something looks off on-chain.
Not FUD—it's the data.
In the last two days.
LTHs—long-term holders—have suddenly moved their coins on a large scale. Two straight days
More than 65,000 BTC per day moved
Note: transfers between the same entity have already been filtered out.
This isn’t wallet consolidation—it’s real movement.
Two days: 130,000 BTC
At current prices, that’s tens of billions of dollars.
Who are LTHs? Addresses holding for more than 155 days.
It’s the “don’t-move” money.
It’s the most solid layer of long-term reserves for BTC.
They moved.
No matter how much the market shook, how it dropped, or how panicked everyone was before—LTHs kept absorbing.
Kept hoarding.
Kept building a base.
In May, they suddenly stopped accumulating.
In July, it started to trade sideways.
In the last two days—they’ve begun to distribute.
This isn’t some “normal turnover.”
It’s that this group’s logic has changed.
Where did it go? 1.4万枚 BTC were sent to exchanges.
Into exchanges = preparing to sell.
No need to explain.
Of those, 2,628 BTC came from Trump’s listed company.
Sent directly to Crypto.com.
Publicly.
Traceable on-chain.
Not a conspiracy theory.
Not anonymous addresses.
This is plain sight.
Your own president’s concept stock. Your own BTC position. You send it to an exchange yourself.
Do you understand better than he does?
What about the rest? Other five or sixty thousand LTH net reductions—where did they go? For what purpose?
I don’t know.
Not sent to exchanges. Not sent to known custodial addresses. Not sent to ETF addresses.
They disappeared.
OTC over-the-counter? Institutions trading privately? Turned into something else? Pre-positioned to hedge?
“I don’t know” is also a signal.
Because every time LTHs start moving in size and you don’t know why—after the fact, you end up knowing.
Every time.
Why are they moving now? What did they find out?
I don’t know what they know.
But I do know this— the previous time LTHs made a sudden large-scale move right before FOMC was before the FTX collapse.
And the time before that—was before the Luna collapse.
And before that—was 3·12.
It doesn’t collapse every time.
But before every collapse—there’s this move.
LTHs aren’t gods.
LTHs can make mistakes too.
But the cost for LTH mistakes is four orders of magnitude higher than what it costs you or me to make a mistake.
They’re willing to take the risk of being wrong—so they move.
So if you’re short—then you’re right! $BTC #BTC
Something looks off on-chain.
Not FUD—it's the data.
In the last two days.
LTHs—long-term holders—have suddenly moved their coins on a large scale. Two straight days
More than 65,000 BTC per day moved
Note: transfers between the same entity have already been filtered out.
This isn’t wallet consolidation—it’s real movement.
Two days: 130,000 BTC
At current prices, that’s tens of billions of dollars.
Who are LTHs? Addresses holding for more than 155 days.
It’s the “don’t-move” money.
It’s the most solid layer of long-term reserves for BTC.
They moved.
No matter how much the market shook, how it dropped, or how panicked everyone was before—LTHs kept absorbing.
Kept hoarding.
Kept building a base.
In May, they suddenly stopped accumulating.
In July, it started to trade sideways.
In the last two days—they’ve begun to distribute.
This isn’t some “normal turnover.”
It’s that this group’s logic has changed.
Where did it go? 1.4万枚 BTC were sent to exchanges.
Into exchanges = preparing to sell.
No need to explain.
Of those, 2,628 BTC came from Trump’s listed company.
Sent directly to Crypto.com.
Publicly.
Traceable on-chain.
Not a conspiracy theory.
Not anonymous addresses.
This is plain sight.
Your own president’s concept stock. Your own BTC position. You send it to an exchange yourself.
Do you understand better than he does?
What about the rest? Other five or sixty thousand LTH net reductions—where did they go? For what purpose?
I don’t know.
Not sent to exchanges. Not sent to known custodial addresses. Not sent to ETF addresses.
They disappeared.
OTC over-the-counter? Institutions trading privately? Turned into something else? Pre-positioned to hedge?
“I don’t know” is also a signal.
Because every time LTHs start moving in size and you don’t know why—after the fact, you end up knowing.
Every time.
Why are they moving now? What did they find out?
I don’t know what they know.
But I do know this— the previous time LTHs made a sudden large-scale move right before FOMC was before the FTX collapse.
And the time before that—was before the Luna collapse.
And before that—was 3·12.
It doesn’t collapse every time.
But before every collapse—there’s this move.
LTHs aren’t gods.
LTHs can make mistakes too.
But the cost for LTH mistakes is four orders of magnitude higher than what it costs you or me to make a mistake.
They’re willing to take the risk of being wrong—so they move.
So if you’re short—then you’re right! $BTC #BTC
镰刀判官
·
--
MicroStrategy plans to sell $50 billion worth of $BTC
Get ready for BTC starting with “3”!
$BTC
#BTC
Get ready for BTC starting with “3”!
$BTC
#BTC
Partly True
Let me tell a ghost story!
This round of Korea’s credit cleanup, in fact, has already sent the entire year’s net profit losses of Hynix + Samsung to the U.S. Wall Street.
At the moment, there are 1.2 million people in South Korea facing liquidation. If the average loss per person is 1 million yuan,
and more than half of the shares of Samsung and Hynix are held by U.S. Wall Street institutional investors.
Samsung + Hynix’s estimated total net profit attributable to South Korea for all of 2026 is only about 1.1 trillion yuan.
Total liquidation amount: 1.2 million people multiplied by 1 million yuan equals 1.2 trillion yuan.
This round of Korea’s credit cleanup, in fact, has already sent the entire year’s net profit losses of Hynix + Samsung to the U.S. Wall Street.
At the moment, there are 1.2 million people in South Korea facing liquidation. If the average loss per person is 1 million yuan,
and more than half of the shares of Samsung and Hynix are held by U.S. Wall Street institutional investors.
Samsung + Hynix’s estimated total net profit attributable to South Korea for all of 2026 is only about 1.1 trillion yuan.
Total liquidation amount: 1.2 million people multiplied by 1 million yuan equals 1.2 trillion yuan.
镰刀判官
·
--
“Loyalty Loan” has made young people in South Korea bleed and cry. There’s no need for tanks to march down from the North Korea side—just announce that the loans are waived!
South Koreans are truly patriotic. Out of 30 people, only one got liquidated/overleveraged. And 61% are still under 30 years old.
Then among them, there’s a proportion far higher than 50% of men who have served in the military.
No chaos has broken out—aside from patriotism, I really can’t think of any other explanation.
You see, South Korean men who have done military service can apply more easily for a type of private loan called the “Loyalty Loan,” or also known as “Bingzhang Loan” (soldier-leader loan).
This kind of loan doesn’t require collateral. It can be disbursed quickly, with extremely low thresholds. You only need proof of the soldier’s ID, pay records, and the verification of existing debts isn’t too strict. Even with a record of multiple outstanding loans on you, they still can approve the loan.
All the process is online and non-face-to-face. You can apply just by getting your phone out in the barracks—funds are disbursed within dozens of minutes.
The lending institution determines that the soldier receives a fixed monthly allowance and, after discharge, will inevitably need to work. They then use the credit system to forcibly pursue repayment of the debt.
Although the interest rate can be as high as 20%, in the face of a three-times leverage and a doubled-growth stock market, this interest rate isn’t a big deal.
So what’s really astonishing is that South Korean men who serve in the military can participate in this golden age of the stock market more easily than others.
And because of the interest-rate issue, they’re even more inclined to use high leverage.
What a terrifying experience it is: you serve your term and return having helped the country, but you come back owing a big pile of “loyalty loans.” Every year you pay interest right up against South Korea’s rate cap of 20%, endlessly rolling over.
By the time you finish your service and come back, this loan’s interest rate is comparable to online lending—probably more than double at that point.
Now even on韩网 (Korean internet forums) people are complaining that during this time they shouldn’t travel or take flights—because they’re afraid the pilots will trade stocks, and they’ll bring them along when they fly.
Now shouldn’t they be more concerned about those big-headed privates in the army—looking at loans they can never possibly repay? Wouldn’t it be better to throw themselves at the North and be done with it, light and easy?
But honestly, it’s still more realistic to hope the military gives them some money again—because even General Jin might not be willing to accept gamblers.
$SKHYNIX
South Koreans are truly patriotic. Out of 30 people, only one got liquidated/overleveraged. And 61% are still under 30 years old.
Then among them, there’s a proportion far higher than 50% of men who have served in the military.
No chaos has broken out—aside from patriotism, I really can’t think of any other explanation.
You see, South Korean men who have done military service can apply more easily for a type of private loan called the “Loyalty Loan,” or also known as “Bingzhang Loan” (soldier-leader loan).
This kind of loan doesn’t require collateral. It can be disbursed quickly, with extremely low thresholds. You only need proof of the soldier’s ID, pay records, and the verification of existing debts isn’t too strict. Even with a record of multiple outstanding loans on you, they still can approve the loan.
All the process is online and non-face-to-face. You can apply just by getting your phone out in the barracks—funds are disbursed within dozens of minutes.
The lending institution determines that the soldier receives a fixed monthly allowance and, after discharge, will inevitably need to work. They then use the credit system to forcibly pursue repayment of the debt.
Although the interest rate can be as high as 20%, in the face of a three-times leverage and a doubled-growth stock market, this interest rate isn’t a big deal.
So what’s really astonishing is that South Korean men who serve in the military can participate in this golden age of the stock market more easily than others.
And because of the interest-rate issue, they’re even more inclined to use high leverage.
What a terrifying experience it is: you serve your term and return having helped the country, but you come back owing a big pile of “loyalty loans.” Every year you pay interest right up against South Korea’s rate cap of 20%, endlessly rolling over.
By the time you finish your service and come back, this loan’s interest rate is comparable to online lending—probably more than double at that point.
Now even on韩网 (Korean internet forums) people are complaining that during this time they shouldn’t travel or take flights—because they’re afraid the pilots will trade stocks, and they’ll bring them along when they fly.
Now shouldn’t they be more concerned about those big-headed privates in the army—looking at loans they can never possibly repay? Wouldn’t it be better to throw themselves at the North and be done with it, light and easy?
But honestly, it’s still more realistic to hope the military gives them some money again—because even General Jin might not be willing to accept gamblers.
$SKHYNIX
“Loyalty Loan” has made young people in South Korea bleed and cry. There’s no need for tanks to march down from the North Korea side—just announce that the loans are waived!
South Koreans are truly patriotic. Out of 30 people, only one got liquidated/overleveraged. And 61% are still under 30 years old.
Then among them, there’s a proportion far higher than 50% of men who have served in the military.
No chaos has broken out—aside from patriotism, I really can’t think of any other explanation.
You see, South Korean men who have done military service can apply more easily for a type of private loan called the “Loyalty Loan,” or also known as “Bingzhang Loan” (soldier-leader loan).
This kind of loan doesn’t require collateral. It can be disbursed quickly, with extremely low thresholds. You only need proof of the soldier’s ID, pay records, and the verification of existing debts isn’t too strict. Even with a record of multiple outstanding loans on you, they still can approve the loan.
All the process is online and non-face-to-face. You can apply just by getting your phone out in the barracks—funds are disbursed within dozens of minutes.
The lending institution determines that the soldier receives a fixed monthly allowance and, after discharge, will inevitably need to work. They then use the credit system to forcibly pursue repayment of the debt.
Although the interest rate can be as high as 20%, in the face of a three-times leverage and a doubled-growth stock market, this interest rate isn’t a big deal.
So what’s really astonishing is that South Korean men who serve in the military can participate in this golden age of the stock market more easily than others.
And because of the interest-rate issue, they’re even more inclined to use high leverage.
What a terrifying experience it is: you serve your term and return having helped the country, but you come back owing a big pile of “loyalty loans.” Every year you pay interest right up against South Korea’s rate cap of 20%, endlessly rolling over.
By the time you finish your service and come back, this loan’s interest rate is comparable to online lending—probably more than double at that point.
Now even on韩网 (Korean internet forums) people are complaining that during this time they shouldn’t travel or take flights—because they’re afraid the pilots will trade stocks, and they’ll bring them along when they fly.
Now shouldn’t they be more concerned about those big-headed privates in the army—looking at loans they can never possibly repay? Wouldn’t it be better to throw themselves at the North and be done with it, light and easy?
But honestly, it’s still more realistic to hope the military gives them some money again—because even General Jin might not be willing to accept gamblers.
$SKHYNIX
South Koreans are truly patriotic. Out of 30 people, only one got liquidated/overleveraged. And 61% are still under 30 years old.
Then among them, there’s a proportion far higher than 50% of men who have served in the military.
No chaos has broken out—aside from patriotism, I really can’t think of any other explanation.
You see, South Korean men who have done military service can apply more easily for a type of private loan called the “Loyalty Loan,” or also known as “Bingzhang Loan” (soldier-leader loan).
This kind of loan doesn’t require collateral. It can be disbursed quickly, with extremely low thresholds. You only need proof of the soldier’s ID, pay records, and the verification of existing debts isn’t too strict. Even with a record of multiple outstanding loans on you, they still can approve the loan.
All the process is online and non-face-to-face. You can apply just by getting your phone out in the barracks—funds are disbursed within dozens of minutes.
The lending institution determines that the soldier receives a fixed monthly allowance and, after discharge, will inevitably need to work. They then use the credit system to forcibly pursue repayment of the debt.
Although the interest rate can be as high as 20%, in the face of a three-times leverage and a doubled-growth stock market, this interest rate isn’t a big deal.
So what’s really astonishing is that South Korean men who serve in the military can participate in this golden age of the stock market more easily than others.
And because of the interest-rate issue, they’re even more inclined to use high leverage.
What a terrifying experience it is: you serve your term and return having helped the country, but you come back owing a big pile of “loyalty loans.” Every year you pay interest right up against South Korea’s rate cap of 20%, endlessly rolling over.
By the time you finish your service and come back, this loan’s interest rate is comparable to online lending—probably more than double at that point.
Now even on韩网 (Korean internet forums) people are complaining that during this time they shouldn’t travel or take flights—because they’re afraid the pilots will trade stocks, and they’ll bring them along when they fly.
Now shouldn’t they be more concerned about those big-headed privates in the army—looking at loans they can never possibly repay? Wouldn’t it be better to throw themselves at the North and be done with it, light and easy?
But honestly, it’s still more realistic to hope the military gives them some money again—because even General Jin might not be willing to accept gamblers.
$SKHYNIX
Verified
镰刀判官
·
--
In 2018, BTC at the 6K level moved sideways from February to November—
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
They say trading US stocks is hard,
but the underlying logic of financial markets is basically the same.
If a major resistance level is in sight, go short decisively;
if a major support level is in sight, go long for the short term.
The simplest way is the right way—it's not that complicated.
The prerequisite is to correctly judge what trend you're in right now.
$SNDK
but the underlying logic of financial markets is basically the same.
If a major resistance level is in sight, go short decisively;
if a major support level is in sight, go long for the short term.
The simplest way is the right way—it's not that complicated.
The prerequisite is to correctly judge what trend you're in right now.
$SNDK
镰刀判官
·
--
Flashbacked SanDisk!
Stopped-loss above the previous high!
$SNDK
Stopped-loss above the previous high!
$SNDK
Verified
Federal Reserve officials keep sounding hawkish, and U.S. Treasury bonds are dumped in large volume, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to 4.737%.
Many people haven’t sorted out the underlying logic: a sustained rise in U.S. Treasury yields effectively means the risk-free rate in the market is moving higher.
Capital will flow out of risk assets such as U.S. stocks and crypto, putting natural pressure on valuations in growth sectors.
The root cause of the recent market fluctuations is right here.
$BTC
#美联储
Many people haven’t sorted out the underlying logic: a sustained rise in U.S. Treasury yields effectively means the risk-free rate in the market is moving higher.
Capital will flow out of risk assets such as U.S. stocks and crypto, putting natural pressure on valuations in growth sectors.
The root cause of the recent market fluctuations is right here.
$BTC
#美联储
镰刀判官
·
--
In 2018, BTC at the 6K level moved sideways from February to November—
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
Yesterday, before storage prices started to rise, BTC’s main players probably already knew the U.S. stock market would rebound in the evening, so they began accumulating and pushing up early. After that, it kept rising throughout the afternoon and evening.
Today during the day, BTC’s main players started reducing their holdings, and the coin price kept falling all the way down. At the same time, storage also stayed in high-range consolidation. The BTC price always moves ahead of the storage price.
From this perspective, by referring to BTC’s main players’ accumulation or reduction, we can predict the short-term trend of storage.
$SNDK
#BTC
Today during the day, BTC’s main players started reducing their holdings, and the coin price kept falling all the way down. At the same time, storage also stayed in high-range consolidation. The BTC price always moves ahead of the storage price.
From this perspective, by referring to BTC’s main players’ accumulation or reduction, we can predict the short-term trend of storage.
$SNDK
#BTC
镰刀判官
·
--
Flashbacked SanDisk!
Stopped-loss above the previous high!
$SNDK
Stopped-loss above the previous high!
$SNDK
In 2018, BTC at the 6K level moved sideways from February to November—
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
after 10 months of range trading, it still broke down.
No need to look at any news or catalysts; this is bound to happen.
What’s happening in 2026 is similar to now.
Don’t worry about whether it will break the 60,000 level;
it is 100% certain that it will.
Before a person turns lucky, they must also go through a period of inhuman suffering—
enduring torture that tests your mindset, destroys your old worldview,
and hitting rock bottom.
Only then can you rebuild your mentality and meet the stronger version of yourself.
Candlesticks are like people: if the old doesn’t go away, the new can’t arrive.
Clear out leverage completely, unload the negative energy, and wait for a new trend to form.
At the end of all the research, the most useful skills in the financial market are philosophy and psychology.
Everything else is superficial.
The more you understand, the faster you can lose money.
$BTC
#BTC
The highest realm of trading
If you miss the market opportunity, go flat
If you don’t understand the situation, go flat
If your emotions are bad, go flat
After a big loss, go flat
After a big win, also go flat
Going flat is a high-level strategy
Going flat is to wait for better opportunities
Rushing into the market will only lead to losses
If you miss the market opportunity, go flat
If you don’t understand the situation, go flat
If your emotions are bad, go flat
After a big loss, go flat
After a big win, also go flat
Going flat is a high-level strategy
Going flat is to wait for better opportunities
Rushing into the market will only lead to losses
From past bear-market replays, why does the “mainstream miner shut-down electricity price” predict the BTC bottom with such extreme accuracy?
Electricity costs are a hard, cash expense that miners cannot magically reduce.
When BTC’s current price falls below the break-even shutdown level of leading mining machines, it inevitably triggers miner capitulation and liquidation, forcing out the cycle’s absolute iron-bottom.
Looking back at the last two bear markets:
Late 2018 bottom: $3,122. At that time, the dominant fleet was the Antminer S9. With $0.05 electricity per kWh, the shutdown price cluster was concentrated at $3,000–$3,500.
Late 2022 bottom: $15,476. At that time, the dominant fleet was the S19 / M30S. With $0.05 electricity per kWh, the shutdown price cluster was concentrated at $14,000–$16,000.
Based on today’s mainstream electricity price of $0.05/kWh for globally compliant mining farms:
1) Layered shutdown prices for mainstream miners
Current flagship models (S21 / S21 Pro / M60): shutdown price is about $45,000–$55,000.
Top-end liquid-cooling and flagship models (S21 XP Hyd): shutdown price is about $32,000–$40,000.
2) Predicted bottom price range
First support zone: $48,000–$55,000. When price drops into this band, mainstream miners of the time (like S21, etc.) will face widespread losses. Network hashrate growth stalls, and highly leveraged mining firms begin to dump and liquidate. This is the area where long-term capital can start building positions in batches.
Extreme liquidation zone: $38,000–$45,000. If a black-swan event occurs or extreme liquidity tightening hits, the price will smash through the leading miners’ shutdown prices, and the vast majority of mid-cost mining operations will completely shut down and liquidate. Historically, the moment when mainstream miners are effectively “wiped out” like this is the cycle’s absolute bottom.
3) Confirmation signals for bottom-calling
Don’t guess the bottom out of thin air—focus on three on-chain and mining-end indicators:
After the Hash Ribbon forms a dead cross and then re-crosses to a golden cross (indicating miner capitulation).
Mining difficulty shows large negative adjustments for two consecutive times or more (single adjustment >5%).
Miner reserve holdings drop sharply, then begin to stabilize.
As long as these three signals appear one after another, and the price is within the shutdown-price range above, the macro bottom is basically confirmed as established.
$BTC
Electricity costs are a hard, cash expense that miners cannot magically reduce.
When BTC’s current price falls below the break-even shutdown level of leading mining machines, it inevitably triggers miner capitulation and liquidation, forcing out the cycle’s absolute iron-bottom.
Looking back at the last two bear markets:
Late 2018 bottom: $3,122. At that time, the dominant fleet was the Antminer S9. With $0.05 electricity per kWh, the shutdown price cluster was concentrated at $3,000–$3,500.
Late 2022 bottom: $15,476. At that time, the dominant fleet was the S19 / M30S. With $0.05 electricity per kWh, the shutdown price cluster was concentrated at $14,000–$16,000.
Based on today’s mainstream electricity price of $0.05/kWh for globally compliant mining farms:
1) Layered shutdown prices for mainstream miners
Current flagship models (S21 / S21 Pro / M60): shutdown price is about $45,000–$55,000.
Top-end liquid-cooling and flagship models (S21 XP Hyd): shutdown price is about $32,000–$40,000.
2) Predicted bottom price range
First support zone: $48,000–$55,000. When price drops into this band, mainstream miners of the time (like S21, etc.) will face widespread losses. Network hashrate growth stalls, and highly leveraged mining firms begin to dump and liquidate. This is the area where long-term capital can start building positions in batches.
Extreme liquidation zone: $38,000–$45,000. If a black-swan event occurs or extreme liquidity tightening hits, the price will smash through the leading miners’ shutdown prices, and the vast majority of mid-cost mining operations will completely shut down and liquidate. Historically, the moment when mainstream miners are effectively “wiped out” like this is the cycle’s absolute bottom.
3) Confirmation signals for bottom-calling
Don’t guess the bottom out of thin air—focus on three on-chain and mining-end indicators:
After the Hash Ribbon forms a dead cross and then re-crosses to a golden cross (indicating miner capitulation).
Mining difficulty shows large negative adjustments for two consecutive times or more (single adjustment >5%).
Miner reserve holdings drop sharply, then begin to stabilize.
As long as these three signals appear one after another, and the price is within the shutdown-price range above, the macro bottom is basically confirmed as established.
$BTC
Hynix is finally doing great!
I’m ready to stop while I’m ahead!
After all, the amount of killing I’ve been doing is just too harsh—I'm afraid the follow-through won’t hold up
$SKHY
I’m ready to stop while I’m ahead!
After all, the amount of killing I’ve been doing is just too harsh—I'm afraid the follow-through won’t hold up
$SKHY
镰刀判官
·
--
Hynix’s heaviest shots—this batch is slaughtered!
If the U.S. stocks open tonight, you can try for a rebound!
Stop-loss below the previous low!
$SKHY
If the U.S. stocks open tonight, you can try for a rebound!
Stop-loss below the previous low!
$SKHY
Verified
QQQETF+0.61%
Verified
The hawk has finished screaming!
As expected, there was no rate hike—three dissenting votes. September rate-hike expectations are fully priced in!
Asian stocks continue to be stabbed.
And the fact that there was no rate hike shows that Wosh is cooperating with Trump’s policies. The Fed’s independence is now in dire straits!
And Wosh will keep talking tough about rate hikes—until a true systemic risk signal appears in emerging markets (for example, a central bank in some country is forced into an emergency rate hike, or a major economy hits an exchange-rate crisis). That’s when he’ll finally stop.
By the time we get to before the midterm elections, he’ll start releasing signals of moderation.
By then, rate-hike expectations will collapse overnight. Global risk assets rebound—U.S. stocks will surge for a round, and he’ll have the votes in hand.
$QQQ
As expected, there was no rate hike—three dissenting votes. September rate-hike expectations are fully priced in!
Asian stocks continue to be stabbed.
And the fact that there was no rate hike shows that Wosh is cooperating with Trump’s policies. The Fed’s independence is now in dire straits!
And Wosh will keep talking tough about rate hikes—until a true systemic risk signal appears in emerging markets (for example, a central bank in some country is forced into an emergency rate hike, or a major economy hits an exchange-rate crisis). That’s when he’ll finally stop.
By the time we get to before the midterm elections, he’ll start releasing signals of moderation.
By then, rate-hike expectations will collapse overnight. Global risk assets rebound—U.S. stocks will surge for a round, and he’ll have the votes in hand.
$QQQ
镰刀判官
·
--
Powell won’t raise rates tonight, but will sound hawkish!
Damn it!
Powell won’t raise rates tonight, but will sound hawkish!
At 2 a.m. tonight. Powell’s first FOMC—maximum suspense.
The suspense isn’t whether rates will be raised. Nobody thinks they’ll be raised tonight.
The suspense tonight is how many dissenting votes there will be.
Goldman expects at least one voting member to vote against.
If three to four dissenting votes show up tonight, it will be the biggest internal split at the FOMC in 34 years.
Powell isn’t afraid of a lot of dissenting votes—what he needs is a lot of dissenting votes.
“Zero tolerance for inflation” has been shouted in Congress for three weeks. How can they explain things if there’s nothing going on tonight?
He votes to hold himself, then sends his hawks to stir up trouble.
Powell won’t raise rates tonight, but will sound hawkish!
At 2 a.m. tonight. Powell’s first FOMC—maximum suspense.
The suspense isn’t whether rates will be raised. Nobody thinks they’ll be raised tonight.
The suspense tonight is how many dissenting votes there will be.
Goldman expects at least one voting member to vote against.
If three to four dissenting votes show up tonight, it will be the biggest internal split at the FOMC in 34 years.
Powell isn’t afraid of a lot of dissenting votes—what he needs is a lot of dissenting votes.
“Zero tolerance for inflation” has been shouted in Congress for three weeks. How can they explain things if there’s nothing going on tonight?
He votes to hold himself, then sends his hawks to stir up trouble.
Hynix’s heaviest shots—this batch is slaughtered!
If the U.S. stocks open tonight, you can try for a rebound!
Stop-loss below the previous low!
$SKHY
If the U.S. stocks open tonight, you can try for a rebound!
Stop-loss below the previous low!
$SKHY
镰刀判官
·
--
Korean conglomerates are liquidating retail investors!
This is only the first wave of liquidation. The remaining nearly one million accounts are hanging on the collection line, and the trillion-won selling pressure hasn’t been cleared yet.
Also, Korean stocks are tracking the US stock ADR, and the ADR’s 36% premium hasn’t been digested.
The arbitrage crowd will drive down the US stock price to move it closer to Korean stocks.
What’s short isn’t just Korea deleveraging—you’re also short the ADR premium reverting.
How to short?
Enter in batches—don’t go all-in. Small position becomes medium, medium becomes large!
Example starting from 1000U:
$192 trial position: 100U × 3x,
$202 add 200U × 4x,
$214 add another 300U × 5x,
$228 go straight to 400U × 5x to fully load.
Average entry price: $214.6, overall leverage 4.6x.
Each tranche liquidation price: 256/253/257/274. Stop-loss is unified at $242. In each tranche, stop-loss hits first, then liquidation—after.
The exchange will never close the position for you—either you admit defeat at $242, or you hold all the way to $120.
Do the math: $214.6 → $120 down 44.1%; 4.6x leverage = 203%. 1000U → 3030U.
#SKHynix #SKHYUSDT $SKHY
This is only the first wave of liquidation. The remaining nearly one million accounts are hanging on the collection line, and the trillion-won selling pressure hasn’t been cleared yet.
Also, Korean stocks are tracking the US stock ADR, and the ADR’s 36% premium hasn’t been digested.
The arbitrage crowd will drive down the US stock price to move it closer to Korean stocks.
What’s short isn’t just Korea deleveraging—you’re also short the ADR premium reverting.
How to short?
Enter in batches—don’t go all-in. Small position becomes medium, medium becomes large!
Example starting from 1000U:
$192 trial position: 100U × 3x,
$202 add 200U × 4x,
$214 add another 300U × 5x,
$228 go straight to 400U × 5x to fully load.
Average entry price: $214.6, overall leverage 4.6x.
Each tranche liquidation price: 256/253/257/274. Stop-loss is unified at $242. In each tranche, stop-loss hits first, then liquidation—after.
The exchange will never close the position for you—either you admit defeat at $242, or you hold all the way to $120.
Do the math: $214.6 → $120 down 44.1%; 4.6x leverage = 203%. 1000U → 3030U.
#SKHynix #SKHYUSDT $SKHY
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