#BTC #比特币预测 #比特币定投 This note is written from a personal understanding to answer the question my friends often ask about whether Bitcoin can be purchased, leaning towards the reasons for holding Bitcoin, or why I recommend allocating some Bitcoin in an investment portfolio. Do not go all in, there is no investment advice, and I advise against using funds that you cannot afford to risk to invest in cryptocurrencies. Understanding: A revolutionary way of storing value Bitcoin is the first time in human history that technology has achieved the sacred and inviolable private property. --- Li Xiaolai This is a common issue that has been talked about many times; the concept of the underlying technology of Bitcoin will not be elaborated here. The conclusion is that Bitcoin provides us with a narrative for asset value storage: decentralized, without the need for third-party custody and endorsement, a globally freely circulating 'transaction accounting system'.
$BTC dropped below 70K, ETFs have seen 34.5 billion USD net outflow for 11 consecutive days. This capital exit isn’t just a mirage. Tether made a rare move, transferring 204 BTC to Bitfinex—first time this year. MSTR is talking the talk about buying but actually sold 32 BTC; the STRC model is either paying interest or proving false, and the market is casting its vote.
Old Huang at Computex is claiming Marvell is the next trillion-dollar giant; the bottleneck for the second half of AI isn’t computational power, it’s connectivity. Anthropic filed for IPO with a valuation of 965 billion USD, while MiniMax and Zhiyu are pushing for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board—AI big models are entering a capital harvesting phase.
$HYPE hit a new high of 75.8, and institutions are still accumulating. Slow Mist issued a serious npm supply chain attack warning, and those doing CI/CD should hurry up and check their systems.
Binance lists over 7000 US stocks, Gate follows with USDT direct purchases. Crypto exchanges are diving into traditional finance, starting with 5U fractional shares. On the first day, NVDA had a significant pre-market price gap, liquidity wasn't seamless.
BTC faces multiple pressures: MSTR sold 32 coins for the first time, breaking their "never sell" pledge, and Iran has closed the Strait. However, $HYPE defies the trend with an ATH of $73, and whales are sitting on a $47 million unrealized profit. Binance's life skyrocketed by 40%, with early addresses seeing 5000x returns.
NVIDIA GTC: RTX Spark runs locally at 120B, and Jensen Huang highlighted 72 ecosystem partners. MiniMax M3 launched 1M context.
Tomorrow, OKX predicts the market for the World Cup debut. Will US stock liquidity keep up the next day? Will MSTR continue to sell? Keep an eye on it.
May Wrap-Up: BNB up 15%, bStocks bringing US stocks on-chain ignites the scene. Those straddling both markets can truly feel the boundaries fading away.
HYPE breaks 70, 14 people netting $390 million, Robinhood users averaging 15x returns. No token drops or airdrops, just pure product — this is the standard answer in the crypto economy.
On the AI front, Together AI integrates with PRL PoUW, hash power not only holds but surges to 27 EH/s, clear signals for miners to enter.
⚠️ Wintermute withdraws HyperCore liquidity, SIVE investigates insider trading on the NASDAQ.
June Outlook: Old Huang's GTC N1X chips / SpaceX IPO / bStocks details. This month won't be boring.
① Paxos secured an SEC clearing license—marking them as the first. Full-chain closure from tokenized securities issuance to custody, clearing, and settlement. Binance's new product launch on 6/1 is likely to be linked to the US stock market, possibly replicating the BUSD model. RWA shifting from talk to implementation is just a moment away.
② Codex is making waves everywhere. Windows Computer Use, Chronicle's massive context, and CC Switch connecting third-party models. Salesforce saw a 79% PR increase and a 151% output boost after switching to Claude Code across the organization. Agentic Engineering isn't just a PowerPoint anymore; it's real reports.
Trading Snippets: · Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH, adding another 25,000 coins on-chain this week, the only company still actively buying. · HYPE hit a new high at $67, with Arthur Hayes eyeing $150; HL is currently discussing collaboration with ICE. · INTC plunged 5%, and after a fivefold increase over the year, institutions cut the target price by 35%. · SPCX is set for an IPO on 6/12, with a valuation of $1.8 trillion; Musk's net worth might cross a trillion. · MEXC has launched real US stock spot trading (non-tokenized), the kind that pays dividends.
The walls between crypto and traditional finance are coming down fast. Keep an eye on Binance's new product launch tomorrow.
AI Circle: Anthropic hits a triple whammy in one day—$65 billion Series H + Opus 4.8 + Claude Code Dynamic Workflows. 75,000 lines of code ported in 11 days, with a 99.8% pass rate on tests. The speed of AI has made humans the bottleneck.
Crypto Circle: A whole different world.
MicroStrategy seems to have sold BTC for the first time, dumping 411 coins at the break-even price of $75,700. ETH has dipped below $2000, and a whale borrowed $50 million to double down on a floating loss of $50.5 million. Boss Yi took a loss on UNI + COMP, totaling $46.98 million. The biggest short in the game is still offloading.
Binance lists OpenGradient (OPG), continuing the AI x Crypto narrative. But market sentiment: project builders say there's hope, while traders say there’s none. BTC still has some hope, but no one wants to dip in right now.
BTC $73K, ETH dips below $2K, ETF capital outflows perfectly explain this round of bearishness—BTC ETF down 43% since last October, price down 41%, nearly a 1:1 mirror. On-chain, $30.5M of 40x long positions are hanging at the liquidation line.
AI Scene: Claude Opus 4.8 + Dynamic Workflows launched, agents upgraded from solo workers to project managers coordinating parallel subagents. 11 days to complete 750K lines of Rust porting, SWE-Bench at 69.2% outpacing GPT-5.5. Meta AI starting paid subscriptions, xAI raising $10B.
Pump continues offloading 100K SOL ($8.32M) into Kraken, totaling sales of 4.54M SOL ($791M). Boss Yi cut losses on UNI+COMP losing $40.29M. BSC sentiment at ice-cold levels.
US stocks chasing gains have fundamental support, while crypto market surges likely due to OTC accumulation + KOL pump signals. Discerning power equals survival rate.
US stocks in the AI sector are going wild: MU up 20% in a day, SK Hynix hitting a trillion-dollar market cap. Meanwhile, the crypto scene is eerily quiet—Bankless founder has liquidated all ETH holdings, while Cathie Wood is still bullish on BTC at $750k-1.25M, but clearly, the funds are chasing AI stocks.
Today, three key signals:
① Xiaomi's MiMo inputs slashed by 99%, DeepSeek follows suit—domestic AI pricing war is kicking off, zero API costs are a bullish signal for the application layer.
② StakeDAO's Arbitrum got attacked, minting 54 trillion vsdCRV to sell off for ETH. evilcos issued a heavy warning: AI black hat and social engineering groups are systematically threatening DeFi.
③ Bitget RWA officially upgrades: FINRA licensed + DTCC registered + independent CPA audit. Trading US stocks on-chain is getting closer.
The benefit of trading across both sides is knowing which way the wind is blowing and running in that direction. But the current question is—are you holding your positions in US stocks?
DRAM keeps hitting the charts. $DRAM 4/6 has doubled so far, and Micron MU's target price from UBS is 535→1625, up another 8% pre-market. This narrative is tied to the switch in AI computing hardware, and it still has some legs in the short term.
OKX Exchange OS is making waves—staking OKB lets you launch your own trading market, with 300k TPS and millisecond latency. The scale is indeed massive, and $OKB is responding with a price jump.
Tomorrow morning, the Fed is set to cut rates by 25bp, basically a done deal. Trump is using peace agreements to pump the market, a strategy humorously dubbed the 'U.S. stock market perpetual motion machine', and SpaceX's June IPO timeline is getting closer.
The Crypto scene isn't all smooth sailing. The ESPORTS project dumped 28% of its total supply in 11 hours, cashing out 17.29 million U, which caused a 95% drop. SLX's insider trading is being blamed on market makers; the same market maker saw $0G drop from 7U to 0.47U last year. Retail investors picking up the pieces is just handing out losses.
Ondo's founder Nathan Allman unexpectedly passed away at 94, Brown + Stanford MBA. This is reminiscent of last year's Plume co-founder passing—RWA space, end of May. The workload in Web3 really does come at a cost.
The AI sector is also feeling the heat. Codex self-testing has reduced the bug rate from 40% to ≤3%, truly impressive. But on the flip side, the company gave 20 people $1,000 each in Cursor tokens, and after boosting efficiency, is cutting down to just 5-6 employees. There's always a flip side to efficiency gains.
$BTC continues to wait for direction; tomorrow morning's Fed meeting is a short-term catalyst.
BTC $77.5K / ETH $2,132, with the US-Iran ceasefire extended for 60 days, the market is moving sideways like a flat line. No direction is the toughest direction to endure.
⚠️ The SquidRouter module vulnerability drained 86 Safe wallets, totaling ~$3M. It wasn't a private key issue; the contract logic was bypassed. The TrapDoor supply chain attack crossed npm/PyPI/Crates, targeting developers specifically. On-chain or off-chain, security is fundamental.
📈 Hyperliquid L1's TVL hit $1.7B, surpassing Arbitrum. The HYPE + HLP flywheel is worth keeping an eye on.
🐳 nemorino.eth just took a $2,124 loss on ETH, cutting losses of $214K, then leveraged back in at $2,113—same price, different conviction.
🇧🇹 The Bhutanese government has sold 9,180 BTC (~$900M) over 11 months at an average price of $98K. Even the national team can take a hit.
📊 A-shares in Huawei's τ chip law triggered a full circuit breaker on 3D packaging, where 14nm is equivalent to 5nm; domestic alternatives always have a story to tell.
This week, with PCE and GDP reports coming in thick and fast, the probability of macro disturbances is high, so keep your hands steady.
HYPE hits a new high at $63.5, Hyperliquid's TVL at $1.67B officially surpasses Arbitrum—looks like the on-chain order book strategy is paying off, and with the launch of HIP-3 on-chain for US stocks, funds are flowing in faster. Meanwhile, Morphos market cap has also eclipsed Aave, shaking up the lending protocol rankings.
On the stablecoin front, WLFI's USD1 burned $115 million to push it up to fourth place, the cash-burning for scale play is an old trick, but it still works.
In the US stock market, Tom Lee calls for a bearish H2, and with Trump surviving his 10th assassination attempt, the risk-off signals are piling up.
In the AI space, Polsia raises $30 million with a valuation of $250 million, and the founder+AI combo pulls in nearly ten million annually—this one-man operation is going from a joke to a reality. DeepSeek's V4-Pro API has a 75% permanent discount; the era where tokens are cheaper than people is really upon us.
Today, the Creao AI Agent trading competition is open for registration, and it's not just about speed for strategy-based agents, so keep an eye on it.
$ETH is hovering around the $2000 mark, while that Hyperliquid whale with a 120,000 ETH long position ($271 million) is sitting on a $28 million unrealized loss, with a liquidation line at $1750. Bitmine is going against the tide, picking up 60,000 ETH — the only one still buying ETH in the entire market.
The SEC approved the Bitcoin index options XBTX, and Wall Street is all in on $BTC without looking back. But at the same time, they are clamping down on tokenized stock trading, and the RWA sector took a hit to the sentiment.
$USD1 climbed to the 4th spot in stablecoins through channel distribution, surpassing DAI. The stablecoin battle isn’t a tech fight; it’s a channel war.
On the AI front: DeepSeek V4-Pro has made discounts permanent, while the backend model factories are getting fried; Claude Opus 4.8 is poking around on Google Vertex, and Opus 4.7 is hallucinating severely — can this version turn it around?
Cross-border brokers are also blowing up — Futu, Tiger, and ChangQiao are all facing penalties, dropping nearly 40% in pre-market.
Bear market routine: waiting for cheap chips + seeing who’s swimming naked. Don’t chase the highs; keep your USDT for better investments.
NVDA's earnings report blew up. $81.6 billion in revenue, up 85%, and the data center raked in $75.2 billion, up 92%. Jensen Huang claimed the market cap could multiply several times by 2030. Duan Yongping increased his NVDA position to $2.4 billion and opened a new position in TSLA at $1.2 billion, liquidating BABA/ASML—big players voting with their wallets.
On the crypto front, HYPE hit an all-time high of $59.7, with the biggest short facing a loss of $25.9 million and a liquidation price of $68.8. Grayscale picked up $25 million, and an ETF is on the horizon. We've evolved from Perp DEX to on-chain synthetic asset exchanges, now featuring SpaceX/OpenAI RWA contracts—narrative upgrade.
ETH is being mocked across the board, with EF compared to the "late Qing government"; even Vitalik is selling. Extreme FUD often signals a bottom, but it could also mark the start of a downturn, so I'm not betting on that direction.
BSC sentiment is warming up, with the possum meme soaring 13x. SUI is pushing zero gas stablecoin transfers targeting AI Agent payment layers, which is a solid direction.
SpaceX $SPCX's S-1 has been submitted, with a valuation of $1.75-2 trillion. xSPCX is trading at $8 in the secondary market (IPO price was $2.75), and the compliance pathway is clear.
⚠️ Nx Console supply chain poisoning, so don’t go upgrading npm dependencies recklessly.
Google I/O is on fire—Gemini 3.5 Flash claims to be 4x faster than GPT 5.5, and the AI arms race is relentless. The real attention grabber is MetaMask × Ondo: buy NVDA/TSLA/S&P 500 tokenized stocks directly with USDC, no KYC required. The wall between Crypto and TradFi is crumbling.
On-chain HYPE is nearing its previous high of $59, with max longs sitting on a paper profit of $21.6 million still adding positions. EDEN has been dominating the Binance gainers list consistently. Tonight’s main event—NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 earnings report, with expected revenue of $86-87 billion. If it exceeds, we’re likely to see a risk asset resonance.
On the security front, things don’t look good: Mini Shai-Hulud’s supply chain poisoning continues to expand, 4,000 repositories leaked on GitHub, and an Agent wallet got hit for $440K through social engineering. Every time before a pump, someone falls into the trap—don’t be that guy.
Google I/O + Karpathy joins Anthropic + Cursor drops Colossus 2, marking the second wave of the AI arms race. But what caught my attention isn't the models—it's where the money is flowing.
Duan Yongping sold off Apple and Nvidia in Q1, while building positions in Tesla + Circle; Leo's AI power fund skyrocketed from $225 million to $13.68 billion. The logic is consistent: the future isn’t about the code, it's about who has the most power.
MetaMask×Ondo allows wallets to buy US stocks directly, turning RWA from narrative to product. On the other hand, Echo Protocol's admin key was compromised for $77 million—old issues, new scars.
AI infrastructure + on-chain RWA, the two lines with the strongest cross-market resonance.
Volume's at rock bottom, but institutions are still scooping up assets; this divergence is worth keeping an eye on.
BTC spot trading is averaging only $500 million daily, which is 75% lower than the 2022 bear market bottom—yet MSTR just bought 24,869 BTC last week (average price $80,985), and an ETH treasury company picked up 395,000 ETH (average price $1,706). The gap in understanding between whales and retail traders is widening at times like this.
AI sector pressure is accumulating. Leopold Fund aggressively shorted AI stocks with puts in Q1, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield skyrocketed to 4.62%. Ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, bulls have already trimmed their positions by half. Tomorrow morning is Google I/O, and the volatility in AI-related assets won’t be small.
⚠️ Monad Echo Protocol admin private key leak—classic attack vector: take admin → grant role → over-leverage → mix funds and run. The Verus bridge is also under attack, with losses hitting $11.58 million. The lessons from this path never seem to get learned.
Conclusion: Market liquidity is drying up, but institutional buying hasn’t stopped. With Google I/O and Nvidia's earnings week ahead, position management is more crucial than directional judgment.
10Y U.S. Treasuries broke 4.6%, risk appetite continues to be suppressed. BlackRock is accused of mixing coins and dumping BTC, keeping an eye on-chain.
Hyperliquid saw 99,000 ETH longs go from +$13M in profit to -$10M in loss; at the $2,180 level, it’s either time to add to positions or get liquidated. Opposite side has someone taking profits on a $67k spot and $78k long for $8.42M—same long strategy, but position management and entry/exit timing are everything.
Harvard Q3→Q4 cut losses, fully liquidated ETH + IBIT halved, losing over $100M. Institutions are also chasing highs and cutting lows.
🤖 Tomorrow is Google I/O; Gemini Spark Agent code has leaked—can control Chrome, read local files, task scheduling, directly competing with Claude Cowork. Almost no discussion in the domestic community, which is quite interesting.
The market continues to be pressured by US bond yields. BTC is still consolidating, while STRC's annual yield has dropped to 10-11%. The game is getting tougher for MicroStrategy.
ETH at $2,200 is an interesting level — Bitmine made a hefty move, pulling out 89,026 ETH ($198 million) to catch the dip, but Gammafund simultaneously cleared out 11,215 ETH bought at $1,999 in March, pocketing a tidy $2.4 million profit. Institutions are calling each other fools.
Things are heating up on the AI front. Anthropic's valuation of $960 billion has surpassed OpenAI's ($852 billion), while OpenAI is undergoing major restructuring before its IPO: merging ChatGPT, Codex, and API into one line, with Greg Brockman taking over all products. Codex is secretly developing a "super app" — merging ChatGPT, programming agents, and browsers into one; the direction is right. The financial version of ChatGPT has also launched, directly connecting to 12,000 banks, officially kicking off the personal finance race.
Safety Alert 🚨 node-ipc and Mistral AI SDK were both compromised at the same time, a double whammy in the supply chain. All Node.js projects and those using Mistral need to check dependencies quickly; don’t wait for a crisis to fix it.
Trump's visit to China has ended, making it clear he does not support Taiwan independence but demands that chip production lines move back to the US, or face a 100-200% tariff. NVDA and TSLA dropped 2-7%, the market is voting with its feet.
$CBRS opened at 300%, RWA turning narratives into reality. MSX connects Pre-IPO → secondary market → exit in a full circle, outsiders riding the Hype wave—true incremental growth.
HYPE $45→$38→$44, CME/NYSE pushing for regulatory scrutiny. Traditional exchanges are feeling the heat, 24/7 decentralized trading is a game changer.
The market is still cooling down, BTC $78.7K / ETH $2,234, PPI exceeded expectations, so don’t expect any rate cuts. But the on-chain drama hasn’t stopped.
🔄 A huge whale got liquidated at HL ($230 million) and transferred 577,000 ETH to Binance for BNB, pushing the BNB/ETH exchange rate up by 9%. On the other hand, Multicoin took a loss on AAVE – they bought in at an average price of $219 last year and dumped 150,000 tokens today at $99, taking a $40 million hit. Even institutions are catching flying knives.
📊 Highlights from US stocks: Cisco CSCO surged +22% after hours, with AI infrastructure boosting switch orders by 40%. Established hardware players are reaping the AI benefits.
🤖 The AI sector is experiencing two extremes: MiniMax faced a disaster when they accidentally deleted over 1,900 user files (0514 incident), but the tools side is ramping up – Kimi Web Bridge, Cline SDK, and xAI Grok Build CLI were all launched on the same day. The agent infrastructure is entering an arms race.
💡 Keeping an eye on: Ethena USDe flowing into Solana, with $400 million pouring in over 24 hours, using a 20x leverage. The HL whale still has $934 million BTC untouched.